NBA - November 13th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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Previous Day Recap:
PG: Devin Booker / 50 / 5.7x / Smash
SG: Brandon Miller / 24.25 / 3.7x / Trash
SF: Dyson Daniels / 51.75 / 8.7x / Smash
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo / 44.5 / 3.7x / Trash
C: Goga Bitadze / 16 / 3.0x / Trash
Analysis: There was so much late swap that having Goga really crushed me. I somehow managed to get off of him in some spots, so we ended up positive, but it could have been a lot better. I regret not getting to more Herro who ended as the smash play of the day. Overall, not bad considering I had 100% Giannis.
PG: Jaylen Nowell ($3,400)
The Pels barely have any bodies left. Nowell and Brandon Boston are the only two true guards they have left. He played 22 minutes last game with Alvarado playing in the 1st half. Now he is out for a substantial amount of time and I don’t see who takes those minutes other than Nowell and Boston. I get that Ingram can play some at the SG spot, but Nowell should still get close to 24-28 minutes and against the Thunder which has a strong chance of blowing out. He will get the blowout run if that happens and not to mention this is a big pace up spot for the Pels with OKC being 5th in pace this season. He is super affordable and you will need that value on this slate with a lot spend up options. It might be an ugly click, but it makes complete sense. I will say that if Ryan Rollins ends up playing, he would be my favorite PG at the flat minimum salary and slide Nowell down as the favorite SG.
Honorable Mentions:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,600)
Jaden Ivey ($6,300)
Ben Simmons ($4,800)
Jared McCain ($4,500)
Ryan Rollins ($3,000)
SG: Mikal Bridges ($5,800)
I honestly think Bridges is like a drug addiction for me. I keep going right back to him even though he burns me every single time. He is just way too cheap. This is a massive pace up spot for the Knicks against the Bulls who are 2nd in pace this season. Bridges has been consistent, but just hasn’t had that big spark game where he hits his ceiling which I feel he is due to have soon. The price is coming down which makes it easier to get to him and I think with how many people have been burned by him lately that he won’t be too highly owned. You have to have a short memory in DFS and realize that one bad game is just one bad game. It isn’t fully reflective of how the next will go. He just needs some luck in the peripheral department to fall his way and he will be well over 5x value. He just keeps hovering below that number and this matchup is the spot he can really do it with the extra possessions they will have.
Honorable Mentions:
Brandon Boston ($6,000)
Luguentz Dort ($4,700)
Stephon Castle ($4,700)
Isaiah Joe ($4,500)
Malik Beasley ($4,200)
SF: OG Anunoby ($5,700)
Honestly he is playing how I wish Bridges was playing. He has 30+ DK points in 6 straight games with a ceiling of 40 DK points. Just like with Bridges, this is a massive pace up spot against a terrible Bulls defense that I think a lot of the Knicks will be able to exploit. The price is just far too cheap for the current production and matchup. With 80% of this slate featuring slow paced teams, I want to go after the teams that are atleast in big pace up spots, so getting to a lot of Knicks and Pels for value who have the biggest pace jumps for this slate will likely pay off. Anunoby is just too affordable to pass up.
Honorable Mentions:
Brandon Ingram ($8,800)
Franz Wagner ($8,500)
Bennedict Mathurin ($6,000)
PF: Aaron Wiggins ($4,600)
I am not a huge fan of the PF position for tonight. We really need VanVleet to be out to open up the the Rocket value but at the time of writing this, FVV is expected to play so let’s just go get a PF on a high implied total team. Wiggins is likely to draw the start again with Chet out and see 20+ minutes easily if not close to 30 minutes. This matchup against the Pels should be a cake walk with how many injuries they have right now. While his price is a touch high, he doesn’t need much to pay it off and the matchup will make it easy to do so.
Honorable Mentions:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500)
Josh Hart ($6,600)
Tobias Harris ($6,400)
Guerschon Yabusele ($4,300)
Simone Fontecchio ($3,100)
C: Myles Turner ($6,400)
First off, lets talk about Draftkings making Jalen Williams C only. That is some nonsense. Anyways, on to Turner. He should be a $7,000 center but Draftkings just keeps messing around with his price and leaving it way too low. They do face the Magic which can be a tough matchup, but Goga and Wagner don’t pose much of a threat to me. He has 39+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 games and with all the other Cs out for the year Turner is going to play 35+ minutes barring a blowout. This just feels like too easy of a play, so expect ownership to be quite high. I think it is chalk you just need to take.
Honorable Mentions:
Victor Wembanyama ($10,900)
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,700)
Jalen Williams ($8,100)
Nicolas Claxton ($6,000)
Moritz Wagner ($4,600)
