NBA - November 12th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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Previous Day Recap:
PG: Jose Alvarado / 5 / 0.8x / Hurt
SG: Luguentz Dort / 27.5 / 6.7x / Smash
SF: Jalen Williams / 51 / 6.5x / Smash
PF: Evan Mobley / 31.75 / 4.2x / Trash
C: Nic Claxton / 31.75 / 5.6x / Good
Analysis: Once the Houston chalk opened up, I pivoted to the likes of Sengun/Amen/Eason big time and it paid off. If it weren’t for Alvarado dragging me down we would have well over 5x’d my entries. Had a top 1% lineup to make it a 4x day so I am happy with that.
PG: Devin Booker ($8,800)
With Durant out for a while, the entire Suns team will see a major usage adjustment. Booker is going to be the one leading the charge and getting to matchup against a Jazz team that is bottom 5 in defensive efficiency and top 3 in pace should have him licking his chops. There is enough value on this slate to fit him and a few other high priced options in, so why not do it? Booker will have a usage rate somewhere north of 30% and has been playing close to 40 minutes every night. The icing on the cake is Booker hasn’t scored south of 43 DK points once in his last 9 meetings against Utah with a ceiling of 78 DK points. He is a great spend up option tonight even if the ownership is going to be a bit high.
Honorable Mentions:
Stephen Curry ($8,300)
Tyler Herro ($7,400)
Tyus Jones ($5,400)
De’Anthony Melton ($4,200)
Keaton Wallace ($3,200)
SG: Brandon Miller ($6,600)
This one could blow up in my face just based on the matchup, but without Miles Bridges (and others) Miller has been fantastic. In the two games he has missed, Miller has scored 40 and 52 DK points which for this price tag is very strong. The Magic without Paolo aren’t nearly as good and he has a pretty strong track record against them as well with 30+ DK points in all 4 games and his last being a 47 DK point performance. I don’t think the ownership will get there with how many other good plays are on this slate. He grades out as an excellent GPP pivot who has the upside to really break a slate.
Honorable Mentions:
Kyrie Irving ($8,300)
Bradley Beal ($7,000)
Donte DiVincenzo ($5,200)
AJ Green ($4,200)
Garrison Mathews ($3,700)
SF: Dyson Daniels ($6,000)
The Hawks literally have no out except for Jalen Johnson and the bigs. From a G perspective, he will be leading the group with legitimate G-League bodies. I think there is a strong chance he handles the entire offense without Trae and when you pair that scoring + assist upside with his defensive prowess to get steals and blocks, he can easily get to an optimal score at this price. He has scored 40+ DK points in back to back games with Trae. Imagine what he can do without him. It is a rough matchup against Boston, so he could very well end up busting. However, from a usage and upside standpoint, he checks every box you want.
Honorable Mentions:
Franz Wagner ($8,400)
Jaylen Brown ($8,200)
Andrew Wiggins ($5,300)
Grayson Allen ($3,700)
Andre Jackson Jr. ($3,700)
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300)
We have the value to make it happen so lets make it happen. The Bucks will be without Lillard and Middleton which means we see Giannis in a massive usage spot and he could even run some PG. They get to face the Raptors who are 5th in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency. There really isn’t much more to say other than he is the best spend up on the slate. He is likely to be one of the highest owned options on the slate, but I think you eat that chalk and fit other pieces around him to get it to work. He legit has 80 DK point upside in this spot.
Honorable Mentions:
Jalen Johnson ($8,600)
Julius Randle ($7,700)
Lauri Markkanen ($7,400)
Draymond Green ($5,500)
Grant Williams ($4,900)
C: Goga Bitadze ($5,300)
He is still far too cheap for his output. With 32+ DK points in 4 straight games starting, I just can’t see that changing against a Charlotte team that is without both their starting and backup C. I always like to target C’s against Charlotte and a value C against them is typically a smash spot. Even with this game not having the best implied total, there is still a strong path for Goga to dominate. The only way he flops is if he gets run off the court, but with each of his last 4 games also being against “small ball” teams, I think he will be just fine. If you can’t find a way to spend up for Bam, Goga is the perfect backup plan.
Honorable Mentions:
Bam Adebayo ($8,000)
Rudy Gobert ($6,400)
Jusuf Nurkic ($5,800) or Mason Plumlee ($4,400) if Nurkic is OUT
Daniel Gafford ($5,200)
Neemias Queta ($4,000)
