NBA - November 11th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Jose Alvarado ($6,200)
With CJ, Murray and now Zion all out for a significant period of time, a lot of the Pelican secondary pieces are getting their crack at being apart of the normal usage for this offense. It all starts with Alvarado though. He has been playing monster minutes at the guard positions and has a solid usage rate as well. 35+ DK points in 4 of the last 6 and now gets to face a Brooklyn team that is undersized at the G position (Ben Simmons doesn’t count) that I think he can take advantage of. As long as he can pick up on the peripherals, which I think he should be able to, he will have a good night. He will draw a good bit of ownership, but I think you just take that chalk and move on.
Honorable Mentions:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,000)
De’Aaron Fox ($8,500)
Fred VanVleet ($6,800)
Caris LeVert ($5,100)
Ben Simmons ($4,800)
SG: Luguentz Dort ($4,100)
I can’t say I am the biggest fan of the SG position tonight. There aren’t many guys I have confidence in, but with Chet out I think Dort has to play big minutes. They really haven’t been playing him as much this season, with only 2 games over 30 minutes. He is an elite defender and can hit his shots. The price tag is incredibly low for a guy that 26+ DK points in 5 of the last 7 games with most over 30 DK points. He has multi-position eligibility and makes a lot of pieces work. He will make the perfect value option tonight that lets you get to plenty of spend options that have the true ceiling. Even against the Clippers who run at a slow pace and have a good defense, he should be just fine with the usage boost he should get with Chet out.
Honorable Mentions:
Donovan Mitchell ($8,100)
Cam Thomas ($7,200)
Brandon Boston ($5,900)
Amen Thompson ($4,900)
Cason Wallace ($3,700)
SF: Jalen Williams ($7,800)
I can’t say I love the matchup, but the Thunder without Chet definitely gives everyone a slight usage bump and Jalen Williams was already playing very well. He 100% might be playing as the small ball C for a decent chunk of this game which secures him over 35 minutes. On a 5 game slate, there isn’t always going to be a ton of spend up options and tonight Jalen is one of the best. With the Clippers having a top 5 PG DvP this season, I think that will mean Shai has a tougher game and its all Jalen from there. The price is cheap for the ceiling he offers so load up on Jalen tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Brandon Ingram ($8,600)
Kyshawn George ($5,600)
Tari Eason ($4,800)
Kevin Huerter ($4,500)
PF: Evan Mobley ($7,600)
This is a great matchup for him against the fastest pace team in the league (the Bulls) who also have a below average defensive efficiency. He is one of the most consistent players in the league and coming off of a ceiling game of 54 DK points. Chicago has also had the 6th worst PF DvP this season and Mobley has such a major size advantage over Patrick Williams. He should be able to control the paint and pick up a few stocks (blocks and steals) to pad his stats. The Cavs have the highest implied total today, so you will want a piece of them and Mobley for me is the best piece to target.
Honorable Mentions:
DeMar DeRozan ($7,700)
Keegan Murray ($6,200)
Aaron Wiggins ($4,000)
C: Nic Claxton ($5,700)
With him regaining his starting spot and breaking through the 30 minute threshold, it makes me love the price and upside. He has always had a high ceiling, but coming back from injury his minutes restriction really held him back. Since starting, he has faced some terrifying paint defenses in Cleveland and Memphis. Now he finally gets an easy one against arguably the most banged up team in the NBA in the Pels who are starting a rookie and have Daniel Theis as the backup. He should be able to get back to his usual double double ways and be a great value piece that lets you work in other spend ups that have a ceiling as well.
Honorable Mentions:
Domantas Sabonis ($9,500)
Alperen Sengun ($7,900)
Jarrett Allen ($6,900)
Jonas Valanciunas ($5,600)
