NBA - May 6th Starting Five
The NBA Playoffs are finally here and we have a some great matchups and storylines to follow tonight. I am so glad we are done with the wacky rotations from garbage teams and can strictly focus on easier rotations and tighter minutes for the starting players. There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Jalen Brunson ($9,500)
Until the Knicks get bounced I am probably just going to continue to play Brunson. His ceiling is slate breaking, he is going to play almost every minute and the matchup against Indiana is about as good as it is going to get the rest of the way. They are a bit better defensively than they were in the regular season, but their defensive inefficiencies come mostly from the guard spot. Haliburton just isn’t a good defender and Brunson with how he is playing is going to find ways to abuse that. He has scored 58+ DK points in 4 straight games and that was in a tougher matchup against Philly than he will see in this series. Until Brunson gets priced up to a point where you actually have to give it a thought, you should play him with confidence.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Jamal Murray ($8,000)
Mid: N/A
Cheap: Mike Conley ($5,400) or Andrew Nembhard ($5,000)
SG: Donte DiVincenzo ($5,600)
I think it is clear they want Donte to be their main SG and will only go to McBride in bulk when DiVincenzo is having a bad game. With this defensive matchup heavily in the Knicks favor, I think you are getting a discount on Donte who had a not so good 76ers series. At times throughout the season he was priced in the mid $7,000s and was playing consistently 35+ minutes. The Philly series he really struggled to find his shot and from Game 3-5 and even in Game 1 he saw under 30 minutes because his shot wasn’t falling. Well he finished off that series with 50 DK points while playing 48 minutes which is a good sign for what is to hopefully come. As long as the peripherals can somewhat be there, his floor is quite high if he is to play the usual 35-38 minutes. I just don’t see a path to that type of run and him not pay off this price tag.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Anthony Edwards ($9,000)
Mid: N/A
Cheap: Aaron Nesmith ($4,800) or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,600)
SF: Michael Porter Jr. ($6,500)
It is tough to really fade MPJ given his current run. He has scored 37+ DK points in 6 straight including Game 1 against Minnesota where he dropped 38 DK points. This is a must win spot for the Nuggets in my opinion because grabbing one from the Wolves on the road is going to be no easy task given how the dismantled the Suns. He has been a big part of securing rebounds lately which boosts his floor and if the shot is falling he is tough to slow down. The price is still low enough that you can fit in some other studs around him and be good. The consistency is the best part for me and I think he locks in to tie this series tonight with Jokic in about as brutal of a matchup as possible and Murray getting clamped by Conley.
Other SFs in Play:
High: N/A
Mid: Josh Hart ($7,100)
Cheap: OG Anunoby ($5,900) or Jaden McDaniels ($4,500)
PF: Naz Reid ($4,300)
I was a big fan of Reid during the regular season and feel he fully deserved the 6th man of the year award. The Suns series really didn’t fit him much because against the Suns you don’t need the size but against the Nuggets you will. I think he has a much better series against Denver and it started off great with 27 DK points in 23 minutes. His shooting was a big reason for them winning with 14 points just in the 4th quarter. Hopefully he can carry that into this one and for my sake I need him to because the value on this slate is almost non-existent. I feel almost obligated to go with Reid who I feel is the only guy below $4,500 that I feel confident will get close to 20 minutes or higher. Let Naz be the value to open up the higher priced options.
Other PFs in Play:
High: N/A
Mid: Karl-Anthony Towns ($6,800) or Aaron Gordon ($6,200)
Cheap: Obi Toppin ($4,200)
C: Myles Turner ($6,700)
I think this is the most efficient C matchup on the slate with Turner facing off against Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson. Jokic and Gobert neutralize each other well and the Knicks Cs split minutes enough that it is tough for either to hit value. That leaves Turner kind of on an island and he showed the ceiling against Milwaukee often. He struggled towards the end, but he was still very productive on average with just over 35 DK points/game in the series. He was able to have 40+ DK points in 2 of the 3 matchups against NY this season. He is going to get the minutes, is a big part of this offense and both Haliburton and Siakam are in the tougher defensive matchups. I think Turner can have a ceiling series given the matchups.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Nikola Jokic ($11,000)
Mid: Rudy Gobert ($7,000)
Cheap: Mitchell Robinson ($4,000) or Isaiah Hartenstein ($5,200)
