NBA - Knicks vs. Pacers Showdown Preview
The NBA Playoffs are finally here and we have a some great matchups and storylines to follow tonight. I am so glad we are done with the wacky rotations from garbage teams and can strictly focus on easier rotations and tighter minutes for the starting players. There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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Captain Picks
Jalen Brunson ($18,000 CPTN): The current run he is on is just unmatchable in this game. He has 59+ DK points in 5 straight games now and even with him taking up close to 40% of the salary at CPTN, the security of almost guaranteeing 80+ DK points up top is hard to pass up. This matchup is set up for him with the Pacers being much worse against Gs than other positions so look for Brunson to continue this hot run carrying his team.
Myles Turner ($12,300 CPTN): I think the pricing on Myles is a bit low considering he put up 35 DK points in Game 1, was in foul trouble early and only grabbed 2 rebounds. There is a lot of room for growth there and it isn’t like the Knicks have the best front court with Randle and Robinson out. We should see him come in a bit under owned at the CPTN which gives you leverage and this is a clear ceiling spot for Turner. Let’s just hope there is a significant amount of regression for him with slightly more minutes and rebounds.
Donte DiVincenzo ($10,800 CPTN): He has played 44 and 48 minutes in the last two games which at this price is a bit too good to pass up. I get he is a bit shot dependent, but if his shot is falling the savings and leverage you get from playing him at CPTN can provide a ton of upside. He has not scored under 30 DK points in any of the last 8 games where he played over 30 minutes and only under 40 DK points once in his last 5 with atleast 40 minutes. While I don’t think he is going to be the highest scorer, he very well could be the best value.
Isaiah Hartenstein ($9,300 CPTN): This is definitely a product of Mitchell Robinson being out and Randle isn’t going to play this season. He got a whopping 36 minutes of action last game. While I much prefer DiVincenzo for a bit more, Hartenstein does open things in about the same way and could give you a little more savings to make pivots up in your lineup. He isn’t my favorite options because the ownership is going to be up there, but he is probably the cheapest guy that will for sure get 30+ minutes tonight (barring injury or foul trouble).
Knicks
Projected Minutes:
Brunson - 44
DiVincenzo - 37
OG - 43
Hart - 44
Hartenstein - 36
McBride - 20
Precious - 16
I just can’t envision at this point in the playoffs the Knicks will reintroduce an Alec Burks or Jericho Sims into the rotation. They might get some run if this game blows out, but given how Game 1 went, I think this is going to be a close contest.
Brunson feels like a lock at UTIL or CPTN just with the floor and ceiling he provides.
Hart feels like he should be a lock, but that price is getting lofty. That is what is keeping him out of my CPTN section, but by all means go f it. The matchup across the board is great for the Knicks.
OG would also be a CPTN option but I put him in a bucket with DiVincenzo and Hartenstein and he is the most expensive of the bunch and really doesn’t have the same ceiling. I think he is fine as a UTIL option, but it is a stretch to want to roll him out at CPTN.
The only two bench options that I think are in play are McBride and Precious. I think McBride is always going to be one that if his shot is falling he can certainly put up optimal level numbers so keep that in mind. I wouldn’t play him with DiVincenzo because that is who is going to draw minutes from. As for Precious, it is incredibly risky due to the fact he got just 4 minutes last game, but that was with Mitch who is out tonight and I think he gets almost all of his run. Last game Mitch Rob was out (Game 4 vs. Philly), Precious played 20 minutes and got 20 DK points. At just $2,200 that is a great ROI.
Pacers
Projected Minutes:
Haliburton - 36
Nembhard - 34
Nesmith - 34
Siakam - 36
Turner - 34
McConnell - 22
Toppin - 24
Jackson - 10
Sheppard - 10
Their rotation feels very set so I wouldn’t expect a change at this point in the playoffs. Most teams don’t really even go past 8 guys so for the Pacers to have quality of depth to go 9 guys is impressive.
Haliburton and Siakam are both in a similar boat. The matchup isn’t the best and their price + production over the last couple of games is not nearly as good as the likes of Hart just below them. With that said, I think their floors are still strong and they will play plenty of minutes. If the game stays close, they could easily surpass the minute projections I gave them and draw some minutes from Sheppard and Toppin/Jackson. I prefer both Hart and Brunson first, but Haliburton is still my 3rd and Siakam my 4th in terms of raw point projections.
Turner for the price I love. I already talked about him in the CPTN section so I don’t think I need to repeat what I already said. I am a big fan of his today.
After these 3, pretty much everyone outside of Jackson and Sheppard have shown a ceiling and will get similar minutes/usage (or both). Nembhard has been the most consistent in these playoffs with 29+ DK points in 4 of the 7 games so far, but there have been a few where he underperformed. I think I just prefer others who might have more of a ceiling, but he is a fine option.
Nesmith is really hit or miss, but when he hits, he hits for a big number. However, most of the time it is just 20 DK points for him. He will get the minutes and be low usage so I think there are better options. The price and ownership aren’t too bad though.
Now we are on to the bench… McConnell and Toppin feel like the guys that will soak up the ownership and for good reason. Toppin is a lot more consistent, but I think McConnell has the higher ceiling. I am always one to fade McConnell in SD because the ownership can get lofty and his floor can ruin you, but his matchup is pretty solid. McBride isn’t one to play good defense off the bench and that gives McConnell a clear advantage. He is aggressive and has a strong usage rate so I am fine with it. As for Toppin, he is the preferred option for me. He is slightly cheaper and has a lower ownership projection compared to TJ. He has 26+ DK points in each of the last 3 games so the form is there and his usage with the 2nd unit is going to be strong. I think he is the much safer option compared to TJ.
I might be in the minority, but Isaiah Jackson feels like the ultimate chase job and I really dislike him tonight. Going to him when McBride and Precious are a similar price and aren’t coming off of hype-efficient game with just 13 minutes (when he doesn’t even need to play those minutes) of run feels wrong.
Sheppard is in a similar situation, but I think his role is more secure. He has been seeing between 15-20 minutes over the 7-8 games and consistently has a role. It isn’t the best and might not get him to 20+ DK points, but anywhere from 10-15 DK points seems reasonable. Precious or McBride might be in a position to give you higher outputs, but Sheppard might actually have the better floor. If you want a safe punt option, Sheppard is your guy (most of the time).
Core Four
CPTN: Jalen Brunson ($18,000)
UTIL: Josh Hart ($9,600)
UTIL: Donte DiVincenzo ($7,200)
UTIL: Ben Sheppard ($2,400)
UTIL:
UTIL:
Total Salary Remaining: $12,800
Average Remaining: $6,400
