NBA - May 1st Starting Five
The NBA Playoffs are finally here and we have a some great matchups and storylines to follow tonight. I am so glad we are done with the wacky rotations from garbage teams and can strictly focus on easier rotations and tighter minutes for the starting players. There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
Socials
If you enjoy all of the content, there are multiple ways to show support! We have a Twitter and Discord Channel that you can join for up to the hour line up discussion and slate overviews! Click the links below to join/follow!
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. Come join the DFS Hero community today for 10% off your first month!
PG: James Harden ($8,300)
Without Kawhi in the lineup, his usage rate and production are just too good to pass up at this price. In the two games this series with Kawhi sidelined, Harden has been able to put up 49 and 56 DK points which is good for over 6x value at his current price point. The Mavs just don’t defend well at the guard position which is why Harden has been able to have a stellar series. It is a big pace up spot and Harden has to be the focal point if they want to extend the series. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 28% ownership which feels low for just a 2 game slate. I am going to ride his consistency tonight in a must win game at home.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Luka Doncic ($11,800)
Mid: Jrue Holiday ($6,000)
Cheap: Terance Mann ($4,400)
SG: Derrick White ($6,600)
This one feels like a trap and I am kind of mad at myself for not playing him on their last slate. I had been jamming him in pretty much every time they played and he kept under performing. Of course when I finally get away from him he goes on to scorch the entire Heat team with 26 shots, 38 points and 57 DK points. It felt like such an outlier performance (which it was), but the fact that Kristaps is going to be out tonight could mean he gets another high usage game here. I think Spo will certainly game plan for White to not score like that again, but they can’t completely shut him down. It would open up any of Tatum, Brown or Holiday to eat which just isn’t efficient for them defensively. White’s price is still affordable and even at the inflated ownership, I think it is still good chalk. Something deep down wants to me leverage the White ownership by playing Jrue, but well find out once this game concludes tonight.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Kyrie Irving ($8,800)
Mid: Jaylen Brown ($7,700)
Cheap: Norman Powell ($4,700)
SF: Derrick Jones Jr. ($4,300)
This just feels disgusting, but Jones has actually been a productive asset for them this series and playing big minutes. His role on the defensive side is what has him out there for extended run and I see no reason they change that here. No Kawhi so the defense the Clippers run out isn’t going to be strong. He has scored 17, 19 and 29 DK points in the last 3 games with 27+ minutes in each. There really isn’t much value tonight and the only guys I have much confidence in with SF eligibility (Tatum, Brown and George) all have eligibility at other positions. Maybe the wise move will be to take value at SF with Jones Jr. and let them fill other positions. You really just need Jones to hit the 15-20 DK point mark to be worth while unless another value option goes off. I just don’t see much early that says anyone else will.
Other SFs in Play:
High: N/A
Mid: N/A
Cheap: Amir Coffey ($3,400)
PF: Jayson Tatum ($9,700)
Every single PF on this slate is overpriced and offers very little upside outside of Tatum so let’s roll with the best one here. He has been a steady 40+ DK points this series with a ceiling of 58 DK points in Game 1 which was at home. They will be without Kristaps today which really leaves Tatum to be the main inside scorer but can also stretch things out. I think Boston handles their business and wraps up this series in Boston tonight because going back to Miami is actually a scary thought. A lot of the better teams have finished teams off in 4 or 5 games. They don’t want to have to add an extra game’s worth of wear and tear to any of their starters, especially with one of them already out for the foreseeable future. I think Tatum puts the team on his back and finishes off the Heat in 5 tonight.
Other PFs in Play:
High: N/A
Mid: PJ Washington ($5,900)
Cheap: Al Horford ($5,500) or Caleb Martin ($5,400)
C: Ivica Zubac ($6,300)
There is no way to get more than 3 or 4 high priced options tonight and the best ones all come at the G or F positions. I guess going Bam could prove to be a good strategy, but then you have to get away from one of the other studs (Luka, Kyrie, Harden, George, Brown) which I don’t think is the optimal strategy. Zubac has been sneaky good in this series outside of the last game where he was in foul trouble and had a basement rebound game. I just can’t see both of those things happening in conjunction again and his other games were for 45, 33 and 30 DK points. The Mavs are an easy C matchup for sure with Gafford and Lively not having much defensive capabilities at all. With the field going up to Bam or down to the likes of Lively, Gafford or Horford, that could leave Zubac under owned with a pretty decent floor and ceiling.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Bam Adebayo ($8,300)
Mid: N/A
Cheap: Dereck Lively ($4,000) or Mason Plumlee ($3,100)
