NBA - April 29th Starting Five
The NBA Playoffs are finally here and we have a some great matchups and storylines to follow tonight. I am so glad we are done with the wacky rotations from garbage teams and can strictly focus on easier rotations and tighter minutes for the starting players. There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Jamal Murray ($8,200)
I think the Nuggets put a bow on this series tonight and coast to a win mostly on the back of Murray finally putting into another gear. He has been okay in this series, but nothing like last year where he was dropping 30+ every night with strong peripheral production as well. The shots have been there for sure, but he just isn’t hitting them at the rate you want. I think the Lakers throw everything they have tonight at stopping Jokic to keep their chances alive which just opens up Murray to run the offense. The Lakers try to push the pace which gives the Nuggets more opportunities and raises the floors for all of them. DFS Hero has him projected as the top value PG and isn’t even the highest owned so I am going to ride with the numbers and start my lineups with Murray tonight.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($9,000)
Mid: CJ McCollum ($7,300)
Cheap: Derrick White ($5,900) or Payton Pritchard ($3,900)
SG: Austin Reaves ($6,000)
His output compared to the price and how involved he is while out on the court is just too good to pass up. He has 30 and 41 DK points in the last two games while averaging close to 35 minutes/game in this series. I think if they want to extend this series, they need to continue to let him get 15+ shots. You have to spread the usage around and get everyone involved and Reaves deserves the looks. The Nuggets interior defenders are much better that what Reaves will see on his end, so maybe he can continue the strong run of play in this win or go home game.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Tyler Herro ($8,000)
Mid: Jaylen Brown ($7,500) or Trey Murphy ($6,500)
Cheap: Josh Giddey ($5,500) or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,700)
SF: Jalen Williams ($7,100)
Only 1 of the top 4 priced SFs that has a positive leverage score per DFS Hero’s projections and that is Jalen Williams. He has had an incredible series so far with 36, 39 and 44 DK points through 3 games. He is good for 20+ points and 10+ peripherals just about every game. The Pels just don’t have the defensive ability to slow him down without giving up more efficient looks elsewhere. I think his floor is what is most appealing. He isn’t too expensive and you know you are going to probably get 30+ DK points out of him. Some guys you really can’t say that about. With dual-position eligibility, he is easy to fit in and projects for under 20% ownership. Sign me up.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Lebron James ($9,500)
Mid: Michael Porter Jr. ($6,600)
Cheap: Herb Jones ($5,200) or Lu Dort ($4,400)
PF: Kristaps Porzingis ($7,000)
I think I am going to lean towards Kristaps being my sleeper/leverage play tonight for a number of reasons. First being his price is creeping down a bit which makes him a lot easier to fit in. Next up when you look at his production from just this series, he really hasn’t gotten his usual usage rate with around 20% for the series. Despite these things, he is still scoring over 30 DK points/game in all 3 matchup with it increasing for each. I just don’t see a path for him only shooting the ball 9 times which is what he has done the last two games. His regular season averages were well above that if not closer to 15 shots/game. With PF and C eligibility, I think all he needs is an uptick in shot attempts and rebounds (which is also well below his season average) and he could easily have a ceiling game. The ownership projection is only around 17% which is tolerable and when he gets hot he can be a serious force. Look for him to have his best game of the series tonight to really put Miami in a tough spot.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Jayson Tatum ($9,100)
Mid: Aaron Gordon ($6,300)
Cheap: Jaime Jacquez ($5,400) or Nikola Jovic ($4,800)
C: Larry Nance ($4,600)
I think the Jo Val experiment is going to finally be over. He got his normal 1st half run last game, but then didn’t see the court in the 2nd half because as good as he is on offense, he gives it up on defense. Last game in 12 minutes he had a -10 +/- which is nothing new. As for Nance, he played 29 minutes, scored 36 DK points and even with a -9 +/- looked a whole lot better. I think they do much of the same because he was able to keep Chet in check for the first time this series. Best part is his ownership projection seems to still be lower than that of Jo Val. He could end up being a massive leverage option that helps take down GPPs tonight if the rotation stays similar to last game.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Nikola Jokic ($11,200) or Anthony Davis ($9,700)
Mid: Chet Holmgren ($6,900)
Cheap: Al Horford ($4,200)
