NBA - March 8th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Vasilije Micic ($5,300)
The consistency from Micic in the starting lineup is just too good to pass up here. He has 29+ minutes in back to back starting against two tougher defenses. Now he gets to play Washington who is 1st in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency. This is as good as it will get for him and they should be able to score more than the 89 and 106 points they have scored the last two games. This is a clear ceiling spot and Micic is coming off of a 35 DK point game where the Hornets scored an extremely low 89 points. I think he can top that and have a good shot at being optimal tonight in this spot.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,500) or Dejounte Murray ($9,200)
Mid: CJ McCollum ($6,800) or Tyus Jones ($6,200)
Cheap: Tre Mann ($5,800) or Cam Payne ($5,100)
SG: Jordan Poole ($6,000)
We all know that once we go to Poole at high ownership he is going to shoot 1/15 and foul out or something, but I can’t help myself. He has a massive ceiling and has been showing it lately with 39+ DK points in 4 of the last 6 games with a ceiling of 53 DK points. Now they get to play the Hornets who might not run at the fastest pace, but they are bottom 5 in defensive efficiency so scoring should be easy even if there aren’t as many possessions to go around. Since coming off of the bench, he has averaged a 32% usage rate which is absurd in about 30 minutes of run. I think this is the perfect spot for him to just chuck it to pile up scoring. If the peripherals can somehow fall into place then he could easily be optimal.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Anthony Edwards ($9,000)
Mid: Brandon Ingram ($7,900) or Terry Rozier ($6,500)
Cheap: Josh Giddey ($5,100) or Trey Murphy ($5,600)
SF: Saddiq Bey ($5,700)
The underpriced Hawks forward has been playing very solid lately with 30+ DK points in 3 straight games with 35+ minutes in each and now faces a very easy Grizzlies team that runs at an above average pace and is below average in defensive efficiency. Bey is looking really solid and these last 3 games have been against low pace teams as well. Now he gets a slightly fastest paced environment and the role should remain the same. I just don’t see who on Memphis is even going to defend him and he is certainly not at the top of the totem pole in terms of defensive efforts. This feels like a great spot for him to continue his strong run of play and his price is low enough to let you fit in more expensive options.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Jimmy Butler ($8,200)
Mid: Kelly Oubre ($6,200) or Caris LeVert ($6,100)
Cheap: Duncan Robinson ($5,500) or Corey Kispert ($4,400)
PF: Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,200)
We have plenty of value to go around, so getting a stud in with a massive ceiling is going to be a must. Last slate, JJJ came in questionable, but when he was marked active he shot up to around 15% ownership. He has 58 and 60 DK points in the last two games against Philly and Minnesota. Philly isn’t the best defensively, but Minnesota is so scoring like that against them is impressive. Now he gets to play Atlanta who is bottom 5 in the league in defensive efficiency and top 3 in pace. This feels like a great spot for him to have another ceiling performance. The Hawks play small ball quite often as well which boosts his rebound rate and without Trae it actually might stay close. With DFS Hero having his ownership projection at just 10% and a 22% optimal rate, he checks every box you want tonight.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Miles Bridges ($8,400)
Mid: Kyle Kuzma ($7,800)
Cheap: De’Andre Hunter ($5,000) or Caleb Martin ($4,500)
C: Rudy Gobert ($7,700)
Without Towns in the lineup, Gobert is a whole different beast on the boards. He averages almost 16 rebounds/game without him along with 15 points and 2.5 blocks. Those types of numbers are crazy good and on top of that he played 39+ minutes in each of those 3 contests as well. He faces the Cavs without Mobley which is great for him even if Jarrett Allen is in the paint. He isn’t as good of a defender so Gobert will still get his looks. Even with this game having a low implied total, I think Gobert can be extremely productive. Edwards can’t do all of the heavy lifting and Gobert offensively and defensively will certainly get his due.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Bam Adebayo ($8,300)
Mid: Chet Holmgren ($7,400) or Jonas Valanciunas ($6,000)
Cheap: Paul Reed ($5,500) or Clint Capela ($5,700)
