NBA - March 7th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Devin Vassell ($7,300)
No Wemby tonight so the expectation is a lot of Spurs will garner big ownership. I think the best one of the bunch is certainly Vassell who will take over as the #1 usage guy in the offense. He has 37+ DK points in 6 of the last 7 games even with Wemby. He has been hot in cold in the 6 games without Wemby, but for the most part he has been able to hit value. The matchup against the Kings is a juicy one with them on the second leg of a back to back, run at an above average pace and are bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. He should get so much usage with that starting rotation featuring multiple low usage guys. If this game stays close, I think Vassell is a big part of it.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Luka Doncic ($12,200) or De’Aaron Fox ($8,500)
Mid: Cade Cunningham ($7,600) or Terry Rozier ($6,600)
Cheap: Mike Conley ($5,200) or Tre Jones ($5,300)
SG: Dennis Schroder ($6,100)
No Cam Thomas or Ben Simmons once again tonight so Schroder will get the big run and ball handling duties. His dual-position eligibility is a big help for him with a lot of PG options soaking up ownership at PG and G. Schroder has 32+ DK points in 4 straight games and now gets a very easy matchup against Detroit who is top 10 in pace and bottom 5 in defensive efficiency. My only concern is the individual matchup against a bigger guard like Cade could pose some issues, but from a value perspective he should still be able to facilitate easily and push for a double double with assists and points.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Anthony Edwards ($8,800)
Mid: Bradley Beal ($6,900) or Malik Monk ($6,300)
Cheap: Lonnie Walker ($4,600) or Jaime Jacquez ($4,700)
SF: Keldon Johnson ($4,900)
I know I talked extensively about the Spurs with Wemby out and how Vassell gets a good bump. If there is anyone to see a big boost, off the bench or starting, it is Keldon. He has numerous 20/5/5 games or better just this season with Victor out for the game. At this low of a price, if he is going to provide that type of output then he will certainly be optimal barring some massive scoring night (which lately has been happening). His role is just vastly different and he can be more of a paint presence compared to a perimeter guy which boosts the upside. This matchup fits him well and he has a big ceiling. What more can you say?
Other SFs in Play:
High: Jimmy Butler ($8,300) or DeMar DeRozan ($8,200)
Mid: Jaylen Brown ($7,300)
Cheap: Kyle Anderson ($4,300) or Jeremy Sochan ($5,100)
PF: Naz Reid ($5,400)
I have a couple macro strategies and one of them is when Gobert or Towns are out, I play Naz Reid and live with the outcome. He has a massive ceiling even with those two playing and it is only elevated when one is out and he gets more minutes. He typically plays at a 1.1-1.3 FPPM type of player who plays short stints and gets high usage. He can stretch the floor and bully guys in the paint which is perfect for daily fantasy. Now you get Towns out which secures his minutes and the matchup against the Pacers is one of the best in the league. They run at a top 5 pace and are bottom 5 in defensive efficiency. Playing him before the price jump comes and reaping the rewards is the best move so get him into your lineups tonight. DFS Hero is also only projecting him for around 7-10% ownership which is very low to me given his upside.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Kevin Durant ($9,700)
Mid: Kristaps Porzingis ($7,400) or Kelly Olynyk ($6,800)
Cheap: Keegan Murray ($5,800) or Simone Fontecchio ($4,200)
C: Domantas Sabonis ($10,600)
Everyone and their brother is going to go to Zach Collins tonight and I totally get it. He is extremely cheap and almost a guarantee for 24+ minutes and solid usage in the paint. However, in the 5 games that Collins played without Wemby, he only averaged 15/4/2 which is good but not slate breaking. I think the guy that Collins faces tonight is in a much better spot since there is almost no paint presence to stop him. Sabonis should feast here against Collins and the backup bigs they run out there. He has 58+ DK points in 9 of the last 14 games, the Kings have the highest implied total on the slate and Sabonis is in line for a triple double just about every night. This matchup against the 3rd fastest in pace team is only going to help. He is my favorite spend up on the slate and should dominate as long as things stay close.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Nikola Jokic ($11,400) or Nikola Vucevic ($8,300)
Mid: Rudy Gobert ($7,500) or Nic Claxton ($6,800)
Cheap: Zach Collins ($4,300) or Isaiah Stewart ($4,900)
