NBA - March 11th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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DISCLAIMER: Almost 80% of the Celtics team is either questionable or already ruled out for tonight. That news will have massive ramifications on how roster construction and ownership will shake out. Currently I do not have that information, so these “favorite plays” are subject to change. Being in the Discord is the best way of getting updates up to lock. Until that news comes out, I am going to assume they are active (except for Kristaps who is already ruled out).
PG: Cade Cunningham ($8,400)
With back to back games of 55+ DK points, Cade is coming into this game on a heater. He has been 1 rebound off of a triple double last game and now gets a matchup at home vs. Charlotte that could actually be a win for them. Even with the low implied team total, Cade should be able to get you what you need easily. He is in a ceiling matchup and the Hornets guard depth is extremely young and quite frankly not good. He should be able to abuse them in this spot. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 12% ownership and he has a 22% optimal rate. That makes him good leverage that I will be trying to take advantage of tonight on this smaller 6 game slate.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Luka Doncic ($12,400) or Jamal Murray ($8,200)
Mid: Jrue Holiday ($6,100) or Ayo Dosunmu ($6,300)
Cheap: Vasilije Micic ($5,800) or Dalano Banton ($5,100)
SG: Brandon Miller ($7,200)
Just like with Cade, the Hornets have a great matchup as well with Miller facing off against Cade’s Pistons. This is a big pace up spot for them with Detroit being 6th in pace and they also are bottom 5 in defensive efficiency. Miller has 20+ points in 4 of the last 5 games and should be able to continue that here with Tre Mann and Ball still out. I think he assumes a little bit of ball handling which only increases his assist upside. The scoring will be there tonight, barring foul trouble, but he just needs the peripherals to follow for a ceiling performance. This is certainly the spot for it to happen.
Other SGs in Play:
High: N/A
Mid: Jaylen Brown ($7,800) or Derrick White ($6,600)
Cheap: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,800) or Alex Caruso ($5,300)
SF: DeMar DeRozan ($8,200)
Only a few guys in the league can match the run that DeMar is on right now. He has 40+ DK points in 5 of the last 7 games with a ceiling of 60 DK points. He now gets a matchup against Dallas who run at the 4th fastest pace and are bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. The big jump probably comes from Lavine being out. Between the run of play and matchup, he is in a ceiling position for this game. Dallas doesn’t have the best Fs when it comes to defense that he will be able to take advantage of. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 10% ownership which should come up. However, the optimal rate being over 20% makes me confident he is a good play tonight.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Jayson Tatum ($9,500) or Miles Bridges ($8,700)
Mid: Michael Porter Jr. ($6,600)
Cheap: Isaac Okoro ($5,000) or Georges Niang ($4,800)
PF: Al Horford ($5,400)
The ability to play Horford at PF tonight is huge even though he will primarily play C with Kristaps out. His price is extremely cheap for the upside, making it easy to slot him in and make it a 7 player game vs. 8 player game. They play Portland who is not going to play much defense. He had 30 DK points in 36 minutes last game and with everyone for Boston possibly out, he should be asked to play plenty tonight. The game very well could stay close so Horford is locked in to an easy matchup, strong role and big minutes. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 9% ownership, which I think comes up, and a 26% optimal rate. Those are very promising numbers that I want to get to tonight.
Other PFs in Play:
High: N/A
Mid: Aaron Gordon ($6,200) or Jonathan Kuminga ($7,000)
Cheap: Chris Boucher ($4,200) or Davis Bertans ($4,900)
C: Trayce Jackson-Davis ($4,400)
If he is going to start then you can go ahead and lock him in. He is far too cheap for the upside and role in that scenario and the matchup against the Spurs is perfect for him. They are a young team, so getting him minutes against them would be more ideal than against a veteran playoff team that will give him the works. He played 24 minutes in a start last game against the Spurs with 26 DK points. Why can’t he do that tonight if not beat it? He didn’t even play as much as he should have last game so there is a bump in upside for him in my opinion. Just keep an eye on the starting lineup, but I expect him to get that start again.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Nikola Jokic ($11,600) or Nikola Vucevic ($8,300)
Mid: Draymond Green ($6,800) or DeAndre Ayton ($7,300)
Cheap: Nick Richards ($5,700) or Daniel Gafford ($5,000)
