NBA - March 6th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Cameron Payne ($4,100)
If the Sixers are going to start him again then I am pretty confident he can be a good value once again. He is relatively cheap and plays at around a 1 FPPM level which is solid and the expectation is for him to play about 20-25 minutes again. With more ball handling opportunities, he should have a decent assist rate and yesterday he only managed 1 assist with 23 DK points. I think that should come up significantly which puts him in a prime position to have a ceiling performance. He faces the Grizzlies who are not a good team right now, but have been able to maintain a solid pace. I think he should be a solid play tonight even with a 38% ownership projection. The optimal rate that DFS Hero has him at is much higher (49%) which gives me confidence that he should be more helpful than hurtful tonight in your lineups.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,700) or De’Aaron Fox ($8,600)
Mid: Darius Garland ($7,600) or Ayo Dosunmu ($6,000)
Cheap: Kris Dunn ($4,000)
SG: Caris LeVert ($6,000)
Starting or not, with no Donovan Mitchell, LeVert is going to have a big role on this team. Then you have to factor in Evan Mobley is out and a lot of the offensive output is going to have to come from the guards. While he underwhelmed slightly last night, he still managed 28 DK points with almost no usage in the 4th quarter. I doubt Dean Wade is going to ever have that type of performance again, so I expect Caris to have a performance similar to when he played Chicago or Washington (within the last 10 days) where he had 55 and 47 DK points respectively. They play Atlanta tonight which is about as great of a matchup as it gets with their pace being top 5 in the league and owning the lowest defensive rating. I think there is a strong possibility he has a ceiling performance in this spot even at the inflated price.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Anfernee Simons ($8,200)
Mid: Collin Sexton ($7,200) or Austin Reaves ($6,600)
Cheap: Alex Caruso ($5,300) or Kelly Oubre ($5,500)
SF: DeMar DeRozan ($7,900)
I really want a Bull tonight in a really easy matchup against Utah. They run at a top 10 pace and are bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. That is the perfect scenario for fantasy scoring which DeMar should be able to do easily. Factoring in that they will be without Markkanen and Kessler again, there is no reason the Bulls don’t win this game. DeMar has 40+ DK points in 3 of the last 5 games (the other two games were blowouts) with a ceiling of 60 DK points. He has 38+ minutes in 4 of the last 5 so you know he will be out there for a large majority of the game. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 15% ownership which feels low to me even with quite a few strong SF options. He could be positive leverage and hit his ceiling in this spot which is the best of both worlds.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Kawhi Leonard ($8,700)
Mid: Tobias Harris ($7,800) or Jalen Green ($6,900)
Cheap: Saddiq Bey ($5,500)
PF: Dean Wade ($3,200)
I hate that I have to type this out with all of my being because this guy is absolutely garbage that found a shamrock last night, but with a lot of minutes up for grabs, Wade is going to have to play solid run. He is coming off of a magical performance where he single-handedly beat the Celtics in the 4th quarter with 20/7. He literally could not be stopped which is crazy to think given how strong the Celtics are. Now the Cavs face the Hawks who are bottom in the league in defensive efficiency and top 5 in pace. For me, it is what Wade opens up for you not what he actually is going to put up because I can assure you it won’t be 30+ DK points again. I still think he can have a solid performance with more minutes since Mobley will be out tonight.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Paolo Banchero ($8,600) or Lebron James ($9,800)
Mid: John Collins ($7,100) or Jalen Williams ($7,000)
Cheap: Luka Samanic ($3,200) or Keegan Murray ($5,800)
C: Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,400)
This play could go one of two ways. The first way is the Wizards just get bodied on the boards by Wendell who can still move with small ball teams and he nukes. Or Kuzma runs C all game for the Wizards with Bagley out and the Magic opt to go to more Moritz Wagner at C. I am going to hope that the first way so we can get a ceiling Carter game. He has 28 and 40 DK points in the last two games and now we have both Isaac and Gary Harris out for injury management reasons. He should play big minutes as long as he can start strong which against Washington shouldn’t be hard. Washington is also 1st in pace and 30th in defensive efficiency which is the epitome of the perfect matchup. I really like Wendell at the ownership projection DFS Hero is projecting him for (4%) along with his great matchup and strong form to provide you what you need to take down GPPs tonight.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500) or Nikola Vucevic ($8,100)
Mid: Chet Holmgren ($7,600) or Jarrett Allen ($7,300)
Cheap: Clint Capela ($5,700) or Duop Reath ($5,600)
