NBA - March 5th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Luka Doncic ($12,200)
Doesn’t matter… you play the best DK scorer in the league against the Pacers who are tops in pace and bottom 5 in defensive efficiency. He has 70+ DK points in 6 of the last 8 games, is optimal just about every time he touches the court, and has a cupcake matchup. You find the salary elsewhere to make him fit and given there are a ton of Q tags already, it shouldn’t be hard. There is no sugar coating this. Play Doncic and let everything else fall into place.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Jalen Brunson ($9,600) or Immanuel Quickley ($8,000)
Mid: Fred VanVleet ($7,300) or CJ McCollum ($7,000)
Cheap: Vasilije Micic ($5,000) or Tre Jones ($5,600)
SG: Jalen Green ($6,700)
He is playing way too good of basketball right now and is too cheap to pass up. He has 50+ DK points in back to back games with 23+ shots in each, a usage rate north of 30% and 38+ minutes in both. That is ELITE production for a guy that is $9,000+ better yet under $7,000. They play the Spurs which is about as good as it gets with them running at the 3rd fastest pace and are bottom 10 in pace. This game should be extremely high scoring with 228 implied game total which is 2nd on the slate. If he is going to have a role like this you can play him just about every night regardless of matchup. With this being a prime matchup for him, that puts him as a top candidate to have a ceiling performance once again.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Tyrese Maxey ($8,800) or Kyrie Irving ($8,900)
Mid: Dennis Schroder ($6,000) or Terry Rozier ($6,500)
Cheap: Sam Merrill ($4,100) or Gary Trent Jr. ($5,400)
SF: Jimmy Butler ($8,100)
It is that time of the year that Jimmy Buckets turns it on for the playoff push and Playoff Jimmy is a whole different beast. In the regular season, he typically averages around 20/5/5 but then elevates that to close to 30/6/6 which is a whole different level. Then you factor in that they are without Herro tonight so the expectation is he will have an even higher usage. I think the best part is he plays Detroit tonight who is dreadful across the board and this is a big pace up spot for them with the Pistons being 6th in pace this season. I think Himmy Butler is just getting started and about to go on a big run so get him while the getting is good and his price is relatively cheap for the ceiling.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Jayson Tatum ($9,700) or Brandon Ingram ($8,000)
Mid: Josh Hart ($7,900) or Jaylen Brown ($7,700)
Cheap: Jeremy Sochan ($5,400) or Dillon Brooks ($4,700)
PF: Evan Mobley ($7,500)
Without Mitchell, Strus and probably LeVert, there is a lot of usage to go around. It really is him, Garland and Allen to hold down the scoring, but with Allen being less of a usage guy and Garland having to faceoff against Jrue, I believe Mobley is going to be the one to shine barring foul trouble. He has 40+ DK points in 4 of the last 5 games with a ceiling of 63 DK points. The matchup against Boston isn’t the greatest on paper, but someone is going to need to carry the load and Mobley is the one in the best implied spot. DFS Hero is only projecting him for 10% ownership which feels right and his optimal rate is right along with it. He is looking to go under the radar tonight and if the Cavs can keep this close I think it is on the back of a big Mobley game over any other scoring source.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Victor Wembanyama ($10,700) or Paolo Banchero ($8,600)
Mid: Jabari Smith ($6,700) or Cam Johnson ($6,100)
Cheap: Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,500) or Jaime Jacquez ($5,000)
C: Myles Turner ($6,600)
I know a lot of my favorite plays use up a large portion of your salary, but Turner is in a really good spot tonight. Since acquiring Gafford, the Mavs have been awful against opposing Cs. Turner has been playing around 30 minutes in closer games and I think this game stays relatively close. The implied total is closing in on 250 points which is almost 20 points higher than the 2nd highest implied game total on the slate. Turner has been incredibly consistent lately with 33+ DK points in 7 of the last 8 games with a ceiling of 40+ DK points. In his last 6 games against Dallas in general has only gone below 40 DK points twice. The rest were ceiling performances. He should be a big part of this offense in this matchup and a big part of having a big scoring total as long as it stays close.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Bam Adebayo ($8,400) or Alperen Sengun ($8,200)
Mid: Jalen Duren ($6,800), Nic Claxton ($6,700) or Kelly Olynyk ($6,300)
Cheap: Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,400) or Jontay Porter ($3,200)
