NBA - March 4th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Keyonte George ($6,300)
I think Keyonte George SZN is here. The Jazz will be without Markkanen and Kessler tonight which just opens up a massive amount of usage for this guard rotation. The one I am most confident with right now is definitely George who is playing massive minutes and getting a huge amount of usage at the moment. Even with Markkanen last game, he put up 23 shots and scored 42 DK points. That is back to back games with over 38 DK points for George. The best part about today… the Jazz play the Wizards who are certifiably the worst team in basketball, run at the fastest pace in the league and are tied for the worst defensive efficiency in the league. It doesn’t get better than this and George’s youth will keep him on the court regardless of if this game gets out of hand or not. I love this game script and George is still cheap enough to give you a huge ceiling while also allowing you to fit in higher priced options.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,700) or De’Aaron Fox ($8,500)
Mid: Coby White ($7,300) or Tyus Jones ($6,200)
Cheap: Jordan Poole ($6,000) or Jordan Goodwin ($5,600)
SG: Ayo Dosunmu ($5,700)
Something for Ayo has clicked this season because he has elevated his game to a whole different level. He is playing huge minutes and before this year, it would be at like a 0.6-0.7 FPPM output. Now he is closing in on 0.9-1 FPPM which makes him a much better play. He is affordable first and foremost which offers a lot of flexibility to get more expensive guys into your lineup. He has scored 28+ DK points in 7 of the last 8 games which is great production. They face the Kings who run at a top 10 pace and are bottom 10 in defensive efficiency this season. With him having played north of 38 minutes in 7 of the last 8 games as well, it will be very hard for him to fail you.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Anthony Edwards ($8,800)
Mid: Mikal Bridges ($7,600) or Collin Sexton ($6,900)
Cheap: Luke Kennard ($4,800) or Patrick Beverley ($3,300)
SF: Deni Avdija ($6,600)
The Wizards roster has been tough to project for lately because most games they play in are absolute blowouts. That has had a direct affect on a guy like Avdija who has since come back from injury to some hot and cold games. None are really his fault, with the Clippers game being a blowout where he only played 28 minutes. However, the other games that have stayed close he has averaged close to 50 DK points with a ceiling of 71 DK points which is slate breaking. The big thing for why I think this one does stay close is they face probably the worst team on paper in the league right now in the Grizzlies who are running out a bunch of G-League players currently. Avdija is probably the #2 scoring option on this team and will have plenty of opportunities against this very young Memphis team. I think he can have a ceiling performance for sure. DFS Hero is projecting him for only 14% ownership which I think comes up throughout the day, but the optimal rate is nearing 30%. I doubt his ownership peaks that high, which will make him a good leverage option regardless.
UPDATE: I am an idiot… the Wizards play Utah which is still a cupcake matchup for sure. Doesn’t change anything for me.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Lebron James ($9,700)
Mid: DeMar DeRozan ($7,700), Malik Monk ($6,500) or Jordan Clarkson ($6,200)
Cheap: Talen Horton-Tucker ($3,600) or Brice Sensabaugh ($3,200)
PF: John Collins ($6,500)
Even with the elevated price tag, Collins is in a spot to completely smash value tonight. With no Markkanen or Kessler, Collins will almost assuredly be playing 35+ minutes against a terrible Wizards team that is bottom in the league in defensive efficiency and tops in pace. He is playing great basketball right now with 32+ DK points in 5 of the last 6 games with a ceiling of 40 DK points. I just think this matchup and role is perfectly set up for him. DFS Hero is projecting him for close to 20% ownership which for a 6 game slate seems fairly tame. With an optimal rate closing in on 40%, there is plenty of room for him to be a great leverage option.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500) or Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,300)
Mid: Jalen Williams ($7,300)
Cheap: Keegan Murray ($5,900) or Bobby Portis ($5,500)
C: Kyle Kuzma ($7,400)
Let’s just complete the game stack with Kuzma here. He has 45+ DK points in 5 of the last 6 games and now get a matchup against Utah that is missing a few of their better players, run at a top 10 pace and are bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. His role on this team is just so secure with 35+ minutes just about every night, close to 20 shots and as the small ball C is getting plenty of rebound opportunities. The Wizards don’t rebound well at all which puts him firmly in double-double territory. His ownership and optimal rate are both almost 40% so clearly the numbers and the field feel great about him. I am going to ride with a chalky Kuzma in what should be a great spot for him.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Anthony Davis ($10,100) or Domantas Sabonis ($10,500)
Mid: Nikola Vucevic ($7,900) or Rudy Gobert ($7,500)
Cheap: Andre Drummond ($5,200) or Jabari Walker ($4,700)
