NBA - February 29th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Jalen Suggs ($5,000)
I want to start off by saying at the moment this slate is absolute booty cheeks. I hate the pricing and value is almost non-existent. Let’s hope that things open up, but for right now, Suggs is coming in as one of the better values. Last game he disappointed with just 16 DK points, but the Magic got blown out and Suggs got into foul trouble. Prior to that he had 30+ DK points in 3 out of 4 games with 26+ minutes in those 3 that he did well in. He faces Utah tonight who runs at the 6th fastest pace and is bottom 5 in defensive efficiency this season. I think as long as the Magic can keep it close, Suggs will be the lead guard and can provide a decent output to give you a good chance tonight. His price is just too cheap for a guy that could easily go for 30+ DK points tonight as a value.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,700) or Damian Lillard ($8,800)
Mid: Fred VanVleet ($6,600)
Cheap: Tre Jones ($5,000)
SG: Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,400)
I am going right back to Bogdan who is basically the same price as last game, still without Trae and has put up 31+ DK points in 4 of the last 5 games. I think he has a very solid floor and the ceiling can be there if everything goes his way. He is going to play big minutes, get up plenty of shots and if the peripherals are there then he will be gold. This is a pace down spot, but the Nets are not a good defensive team so he should benefit from that. He has not let me down so far and is priced affordably that I don’t think he will let you down at all tonight. DFS Hero is also only projecting him for around 6% ownership which is a lot better than he was last slate. Use him as a leverage piece off of some of the other mid range chalk.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Devin Booker ($9,200)
Mid: Devin Vassell ($7,100)
Cheap: Josh Giddey ($5,400)
SF: Josh Hart ($7,100)
The price is getting up there, but I am going to continue to ride with Hart even with Brunson back. He is essentially a lock for 40+ minutes at this point with no Randle or OG. He has 40+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 games which is more than enough for even this price point. They face the Warriors who are below average defensively and run at a top 10 pace. This is a big pace up spot for them and the way Hart does everything means he has even more opportunities to pick up stats. DFS Hero is projecting him as one of there better leverage plays today with just an 8% ownership projection (that will certain rise as the day goes on) and a 20% optimal rate. Let’s keep taking Hart and reaping the rewards.
Other SFs in Play:
High: N/A
Mid: Franz Wagner ($7,600) or Mikal Bridges ($7,000)
Cheap: Grayson Allen ($5,700)
PF: Dorian Finney-Smith ($3,900)
This is definitely a play that if you don’t understand rotations and how things work you might not think of him as a good option. The Nets play the Hawks who are continuing to run a small ball closing lineup. This directly benefits someone like DFS who is their defacto small ball option. He is extremely cheap and playing solid minutes right now which advantageous already but I could see close to 30 minutes here with the way they matchup. He underwhelmed last game in a blowout, but prior to that he had 32 and 22 DK point outputs which is more than enough for a slate like this. I can’t forget to mention that the Hawks are 2nd in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency. This is a good spot to deploy Finney-Smith as a value option that opens up plenty of other priced up options. He will get solid run, is a starter so the minutes are secure and has a ceiling at this price with how well things are set up for him.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Victor Wembanyama ($10,100) or Kevin Durant ($9,700)
Mid: Jalen Williams ($7,200) or John Collins ($6,100)
Cheap: Cameron Johnson ($4,900)
C: Jusuf Nurkic ($6,600)
I don’t really care what the ownership ends up being, Nurkic is coming off of a 60 DK point game against Anthony Davis and now gets to face Sengun who isn’t known for his defensive prowess by any means. Both of these teams run at a similar pace and the Rockets defensive efficiency as come down significantly over the last few weeks. He is priced at a point that doesn’t make it difficult to fit things in around him and has a clear ceiling based on his last couple of performances (scored 40 DK point against Detroit 3 games ago). Lock and load on Nurkic who is still a big part of this offense even with Durant and Booker doing their thing.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300)
Mid: Chet Holmgren ($7,900) or Nic Claxton ($6,400)
Cheap: Clint Capela ($5,300) or Bobby Portis ($5,500)
