NBA - March 29th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Josh Giddey ($6,300)
He is way too underpriced for the role with SGA out again tonight. He has 40+ DK points in 3 straight games with two of these being with SGA. His last game was without him and he thrived for close to 50 DK points. They play the Suns tonight who are bang average for pace and defensive efficiency. If anything, their guards aren’t that good defensively which will make his life easier. This just feels like such an obvious spot for him and some of his teams because the usage rates jump drastically in the absence of Shai. The field is going to be on him heavily based on his ownership projection of over 22%, but I think eating that chalk is the wise thing to do.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Jalen Brunson ($9,200) or Tyrese Haliburton ($8,900)
Mid: Jordan Poole ($6,800) or Dalano Banton ($6,100)
Cheap: Cole Anthony ($4,500) or Vasilije Micic ($5,200)
SG: Miles McBride ($5,800)
Anytime a team plays the Spurs you really expect them to be in a ceiling position. The Spurs are 3rd in pace whereas the Knicks are dead last, so this is a massive pace up spot for McBride. He is coming off of a 49 DK point game against Toronto who is just as bad as the Spurs but slower. If he is going to get even more opportunities tonight then the sky is the limit. He is still fairly cheap for the ceiling and his minutes are absolutely insane right now. You can’t beat 40+ every night which is what McBride is getting currently. If they are going to continue to give him that + 10-15 shots every night, it would be very tough for him not to pay off this price tag.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Devin Booker ($9,100)
Mid: Cam Thomas ($7,200)
Cheap: Alex Caruso ($5,600) or Isaiah Joe ($3,700)
SF: Deni Avdija ($7,300)
This feels risky in the sense that Deni does from time to time have basement performances and it is only when I feel I need to play him, but I am not going to let the past effect playing him tonight. He has 39+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 games with a ceiling of 50 DK points which is great. The Wizards face Detroit in the battle for last place in the league which should be fasted pace. Both teams are top 6 in pace with the Wizards actually leading the way in that category and both teams are bottom 5 in defensive efficiency. With the way Avdija is playing, he should be able to have a field day against this abysmal Detroit team and he is still affordable enough to make work in just about any roster construction.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Lebron James ($10,300) or DeMar DeRozan ($8,400)
Mid: Miles Bridges ($7,800) or Brandon Miller ($6,400)
Cheap: Andrew Wiggins ($5,000)
PF: Jalen Williams ($7,400)
The other Thunder player that probably gets the biggest jump with SGA out. Williams is basically going to be locked into atleast 20 shots tonight given he got up 24 last game without Shai and now he faces the Suns who are a solid team. He is going to have to be the one to keep pace with all the firepower they have. He scored 50 DK points last game in this same role which is great considering the price tag. I think the best thing for him was his assist rate skyrocketed last game which boosts both his floor and ceiling. If he can manage to retain that then he can certainly break the slate tonight.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Kevin Durant ($9,300) or Kyle Kuzma ($8,300)
Mid: Draymond Green ($6,000)
Cheap: Jonathan Isaac ($4,000)
C: Marvin Bagley ($4,800)
I don’t love this play, but because DFS Hero does so much I will roll with it. He is relatively cheap, in a revenge game and will be expected to play solid minutes with Richaun Holmes expected to be out tonight. The matchup is solid against Detroit who are 6th in pace and bottom 5 in defensive efficiency. I think it all comes down to if he can manage a decent rebound rate because he is going to get up the shots that is for sure. He has 7+ in each of the last 14 games with multiple double digit games. I think the best case scenario is for Duren to be out as well so he doesn’t have to focus much defensively (not that he would anyways).
Other Cs in Play:
High: Bam Adebayo ($8,400) or Nikola Vucevic ($8,200)
Mid: Jarrett Allen ($7,800) or Myles Turner ($6,400)
Cheap: Grant Williams ($4,200) or Isaiah Hartenstein ($5,700)
