NBA - April 1st Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
Socials
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PG: CJ McCollum ($7,700)
With Ingram out of the lineup, McCollum has elevated his game substantially with 40+ DK points in 5 straight games and 20+ shots in 3 straight. With those types of numbers, he is still far too cheap. This matchup against the Suns should be a fun one with both teams gunning for better playoff seedings and needing wins. The game itself has one of the higher implied totals on the slate at 225 so getting pieces from it will likely be crucial. This is only a 6 game slate, so getting the higher end pieces will be crucial and I think CJ fits into that bucket. DFS Hero is projecting him for close to 25% ownership which seems steep, but when you factor in his optimal rate is close to 50%, that makes him great leverage still. I love CJ tonight in what should be a great spot for him to keep chucking.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Dejounte Murray ($9,800) or Cade Cunningham ($8,300)
Mid: Dalano Banton ($6,500) or Jrue Holiday ($6,400)
Cheap: Cole Anthony ($5,000) or Jalen Suggs ($5,300)
SG: Cameron Thomas ($7,100)
The next game I want to get exposure to is the Nets vs. Pacers game. Even though Brooklyn doesn’t run fast, the Pacers are 2nd in pace which puts the Nets in a really substantial pace up position. Cam Thomas has been nothing short of spectacular lately with 44+ DK points in 3 straight including 20+ shots in each. What has elevated his game is he is no longer just a chucker. He is picking up some peripherals, specifically assists, at a much higher rate that last season. He has averaged over 5 assists/game over his last 10 games so if we can expect that to keep up along with the shooting numbers, his floor and ceiling become quite high. This matchup against Indiana is perfect because it is fast pace in nature and they don’t defend guards well at all. He will get every opportunity to break the slate tonight, so as long as the shot is dialed in the sky is the limit.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Devin Booker ($9,000) or Jaylen Brown ($8,100)
Mid: Trey Murphy ($6,400)
Cheap: Alex Caruso ($5,800) or Luke Kennard ($5,100)
SF: Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,700)
I don’t really care that the ownership is through the roof on Bogdan. He is too good to pass up in my eyes. Fresh off of a 61 DK point performance and 34+ DK points in 4 straight games, Bogdan now gets to face Chicago who has been shaky on the defensive end this season. He is just far too cheap for the current role with Trae out. It is that simple. Getting a guy under $7,000 that is a lock for 15+ shot attempts and close to 10 peripherals (assists + rebounds) is hard to come by and on this small of a slate even tougher. While the Bulls are slow, the Hawks should be able to overcome that with their top 5 pace. Take the value in Bogdan and just move on to the next position.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Jayson Tatum ($10,000) or Pascal Siakam ($8,200)
Mid: Miles Bridges ($7,600) or Brandon Miller ($6,500)
Cheap: DeAndre Hunter ($5,500)
PF: Grant Williams ($4,400)
It is revenge narrative time! Grant is finally getting solid minutes to the tune of almost 28 minutes/game over his last 5 games. The production has been there as well with 32, 29 and 36 DK points in his last 3 games. You can’t beat that at this price. His optimal rate is nearly 45% which means the ownership can be quite high and he will still be positive leverage. He faces off against his former team that I know he will want to show out for. Even if the matchup against Boston is a bad one, he gets to face the 2nd team offense most of the game which no unit in the NBA has an elite 2nd unit for the most part. The price is just far too cheap for how he has been playing and on this small of a slate you
Other PFs in Play:
High: Zion Williamson ($8,700) or Paolo Banchero ($8,400)
Mid: Kristaps Porzingis ($7,800)
Cheap: Jabari Walker ($4,400)
C: Brandon Clarke ($4,000)
What a shocker it is to see Clarke actually return this season after an Achilles injury that most thought would sideline him for the entire year after how bad the Grizzlies have been. His return has been very solid so far, averaging over 1 FPPM in his 2 games back. The minutes are there as well with 20+ in both matchups. He gets to face the Pistons tonight which is an easy matchup for just about anyone and he will get his run against the 2nd unit. He is much better than most 2nd unit F/Cs so I have faith he can dominate there. While I do think his ceiling is a bit capped with a minutes restriction, given the price and overall production he should still end up as a strong value play tonight when little value is present.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,000)
Mid: Jalen Duren ($7,200) or Nic Claxton ($6,800)
Cheap: Jonas Valanciunas ($4,800) or Andre Drummond ($4,600)
