NBA - March 28th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: CJ McCollum ($7,200)
Let’s start off by saying there are only 2 games on today probably due to the MLB kicking off today. That really limits the amount of value we can get as well as top end options. McCollum is one of the only PGs that will even project for over 5x value tonight so right off the bat (see what I did there), he is going to stand out and probably garner a ton of ownership. He has 40+ DK points in 3 straight games with Brandon Ingram out of the lineup for the foreseeable future. He plays Milwaukee that is 4th in pace this season and a middling defense (especially against guards). I think this is about as good of a spot as you will get tonight. They are going to have to lean on him to get a win tonight and hold down the 5th seed in the West. They have teams right behind them that could easily pass them with Ingram out. Hopefully he can keep the strong run of play going in this pace up spot for the Pels.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Dejounte Murray ($9,600)
Mid: Derrick White ($7,600)
Cheap: Jose Alvarado ($4,000)
SG: Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,300)
I am going right back to Bogdan who was looking like a bust last night for a long while before he finally found his shot. He finished with 35 DK points against Portland which is solid, but repeating that against Boston won’t be too easy tonight. I think with Jrue banged up it makes things easier for all of the guards which can only be seen as a plus. It is a big pace down spot as well, so this play does go against a lot of the things I like to target, but on a 2 game slate I don’t have much of a choice. With Johnson and Okongwu out of the lineup, he really has to be a big part of this offense. Let’s just hope others get more attention than he does and it stays close.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Jaylen Brown ($8,400)
Mid: Trey Murphy ($6,200)
Cheap: Vit Krejci ($4,000)
SF: Khris Middleton ($6,600)
This is my safer play of the day that I think most of the field won’t see as safe due to the ever looming Q tag he comes into every game with. This alone might keep his ownership at bay and by “at bay” I mean under 40% given it is a 2 gamer. DFS Hero is projecting him for only 25% ownership so we are really hoping that just holds. He has scored 32+ DK points in 4 straight with two of those being over 40 DK points. This matchup against the Pels might be a little tough if you look at the individual assignment he will probably get with Herb Jones or Trey Murphy on him. At the end of the day with the way defense’s operate he won’t be guarded by them all game and he can certainly still overcome that. He has been very consistent lately and I just don’t see that stopping here. He won’t have to focus on the defensive end at all with either of them (like he might have had to with Ingram), so sign me up.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Jayson Tatum ($9,900)
Mid: N/A
Cheap: De’Andre Hunter ($5,500) or Herb Jones ($5,100)
PF: Zion Williamson ($8,900)
Just like McCollum, he is playing too well right now with Ingram out to want to fade. He is getting up his usual shot attempts and rebounds, but what has been the most impressive is his assist totals. 10 and 6 assists in the last two games (both games he scored 55 DK points in) which is well above his season average. I think he absorbed a lot of the ball handling duties Ingram did and teams are having to defend him heavier so he kicks it out to the open guy more. If he is going to keep up the scoring and be a menace with the peripheral, he could easily break the slate. It won’t be easy against Milwaukee, but when Zion gets going almost no one can stop him. He checks all the boxes you could want tonight.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100)
Mid: Kristaps Porzingis ($7,700)
Cheap: Naji Marshall ($4,300) or Bobby Portis ($5,800)
C: Clint Capela ($6,100) or Bruno Fernando ($4,400)
We might as well talk about these two as a pair. On this small of a slate, the number of Cs to go around is incredibly low as is. The Hawks duo has shown the ability to both get there together splitting the minutes and none of the other Cs on this slate give me as much confidence as these two. Both have hit 4.6x value or higher together in each of the last 3 games and 5.5x value in 2 of those 3. What’s crazy… their prices have come down or stayed flat (Capela dropped $500 and Bruno remained the same). I think you need to play one of these two if not both at C and UTIL. It all comes down to roster construction and if you can fit Capela in or Bruno due to the price gap. The matchup against Boston isn’t as bad for Cs as some think because Kristaps isn’t a traditional C. Both of these guys can dominate the backup in Kornet and Horford as well so no issue there. They just project too well for me to pass up compared to other C options on this slate.
Other Cs in Play:
High: N/A
Mid: N/A
Cheap: Larry Nance Jr. ($4,200)
