NBA - March 26th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: D’Angelo Russell ($7,100)
There really isn’t much else that needs to be said. When Lebron is out, Russell elevates his game significantly and has a usage rate that rivals some of the best in the NBA. His averages are up 4/3/2 which is atleast a 10 DK point boost and this matchup is set up for him to have a ceiling performance anyways. Milwaukee doesn’t defend guards that well and this game will likely stay close with Lebron not playing. I don’t think the 8 points spread favoring the Bucks does it justice. I can’t finish without pointing out the last time Russell played without Lebron, it was against the Bucks oddly enough and he dropped 44/6/9. This was a little over 2 weeks ago as well. Ownership projections have him at around 20-25% which I think is still very tolerable considering his optimal rate is much higher. Don’t get cute and just play Russell tonight.
Other PGs in Play:
High: De’Aaron Fox ($8,800) and Damian Lillard ($8,900)
Mid: CJ McCollum ($7,300) or Austin Reaves ($7,000)
Cheap: Josh Giddey ($5,800)
SG: Austin Reaves ($7,000)
One, the other or both of Russell/Reaves is going to probably be the ticket tonight. Usage all around goes up when Lebron is out, but not as strongly for Reaves. He still has averaged 19/5/4 in 9 games without him this year which is respectable, but there is a path to him taking it to the next step in this one. Like I said with Russell, Milwaukee doesn’t defend the guard position well at all since they moved Jrue for Lillard. They also run at the 5th fastest pace and are middle of the pack in defensive efficiency. DFS Hero favors Reaves a lot higher which is why I am riding with him as well. They are affordable, have ceilings due to Lebron being out, are in a ceiling spot against Milwaukee and both have an optimal rate over 30%. You really can’t go wrong with Reaves (or Russell) here.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Kyrie Irving ($9,300)
Mid: Malik Monk ($6,500) or Terry Rozier ($6,800)
Cheap: Klay Thompson ($5,700)
SF: Khris Middleton ($6,700)
I feel like if we are going to load up on Lakers we might as well run it back with a Buck and Middleton with how he is currently playing makes the most sense. On the surface, with both teams running at top 5 paces and being middling in defensive efficiency, the environment for scoring will be high. Middleton has 38+ DK points in 2 straight games with an unexpected triple double last game. He is really killing it with the peripherals which has raised his floor and ceiling significantly. I don’t think he will be the top priority defensively for the Lakers when out there so the looks he gets will likely be efficient. Hopefully we don’t catch him tonight with a floor game, but he checks all the boxes for tonight, is playing well and doesn’t have the highest ownership projection. I will take that all day for a 4 game slate.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Jimmy Butler ($8,000)
Mid: Trey Murphy ($6,400)
Cheap: Naji Marshall ($4,300)
PF: Anthony Davis ($10,300)
If you can make it work, I would make it work for Davis tonight. His numbers without Lebron this season are close to 30/12/5 which for most is elite. Add in a couple stocks and he can easily push for a ceiling performance. The price is low considering he has 56+ DK points in 3 straight with a ceiling of 68 DK points last game (that was with Lebron). He has dual position eligibility which helps out big time for roster construction. For a while there I think he was C only which always has its limitations. This game has a 232 implied game total which is 2nd on the slate just behind DAL/SAC. Hedging that this game goes well over that and game stacking it could end up being the optimal move. It has happened numerous times before and this being a small slate helps aid in that possibly happening even more.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300) or Zion Williamson ($9,000)
Mid: Draymond Green ($6,300) or Jalen Williams ($6,900)
Cheap: Keegan Murray ($5,900) or Taurean Prince ($4,000)
C: Daniel Gafford ($6,000)
I am on the Gafford train until the wheels fall off at this point. He has been incredibly lately with 30+ DK points in 7 of the last 8 and multiple of those being over 40 DK points. Last game he had close to 50 DK points with 13/11/5 + 5 blocks and you don’t get games like that from guys at this price often. He is such a high FPPM guy that even in limited run he can get there. This matchup is good against the Kings who are bottom 10 in defensive efficiency and top 12 in pace. Sabonis isn’t exactly what I would call a foul merchant so Gafford isn’t in a risky spot for foul trouble. All in all, his price is still well below the point it should be given his recent production and ceiling. On small slates like this you kind of have to just take those plays and run with them.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Domantas Sabonis ($10,500) or Bam Adebayo ($8,300)
Mid: Chet Holmgren ($7,500)
Cheap: Trayce Jackson-Davis ($5,200)
