NBA - March 25th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Miles McBride ($5,400)
I don’t know how you can overlook the run that McBride is on right now. He has played 44+ minutes in 3 straight games. Yes you read the right. In those starts he has 37, 38 and 24 DK points which is great considering the price. He has been producing well even without a lot of peripherals which is a bit concerning, but the minutes alone will get him there. They play the Pistons who are top 10 in pace and bottom 5 in defensive efficiency. This is the exact spot that McBride will get great run regardless of a blowout and will get up about as many shots as he wants. Even if he gets chalky, which I expect him to, you still will probably need him for value.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Luka Doncic ($12,800) or Fred VanVleet ($8,300)
Mid: Amen Thompson ($6,800) or Scoot Henderson ($6,100)
Cheap: Tre Jones ($5,900) or Javon Freeman-Liberty ($3,800)
SG: Devin Booker ($8,900)
One of my favorite spend ups is going to be Booker who is on a heater right now. He has 45+ DK points in 4 of the last 5 games with a ceiling of 55 DK points (which was against the Spurs who they play tonight). His last game against SAS he only played 30 minutes in what was a blowout. I don’t think Wemby is going to let them get blown out again so Booker could probably get some extra minutes. They also run at a top 3 pace and bottom 10 defensive efficiency. Almost every game tonight has a massive spread so there is blowout risk for everyone. Why factor that in when everyone is in the same position? I think the key to winning tonight will be playing the right stacks from the games that stay closer than expected to avoid blowout risks. Hopefully we get this Suns/Spurs game right so Booker can have another big game.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Kyrie Irving ($9,400) or Jalen Green ($8,800)
Mid: Cameron Thomas ($7,300) or Jordan Poole ($6,700)
Cheap: Lonnie Walker ($3,400) or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,400)
SF: Deni Avdija ($7,200)
While he might be quite volatile, I really like him in this spot. The things we know: he is going to play 32+ minutes and have a 25% usage rate. My big concern is they play the Bulls who are insanely slow. On the flip side is their defense isn’t as strong to offset things. He has 47+ DK points in 2 of the last 3 games which I consider to be ceiling performances. While he might not be in the biggest ceiling spot tonight, almost no one is. DFS Hero is projecting him for around 12% ownership but he has a 26% optimal rate. That makes him a great leverage spot that I will be targeting tonight.
Other SFs in Play:
High: DeMar DeRozan ($8,200) or Jayson Tatum ($10,000)
Mid: Mikal Bridges ($6,900) or Donte DiVincenzo ($6,600)
Cheap: Jeremy Sochan ($5,900) or Kris Murray ($4,300)
PF: Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,200)
With Cam Johnson out tonight, there are a good amount of F minutes up for grabs. DFS is going to be the one to likely start in his spot and get the minutes bump first. While he is a low FPPM type of guy, I think he plays enough and gets up enough shots to pay off this price tag. DFS Hero is projecting him for north of 30% ownership which might be a tough pill to swallow but it should end up being the smart play. With how bad the Raptors have been lately, which is who the Nets play, I am pretty confident everyone can produce tonight. Honestly, if other PF value opens up I would probably be more inclined to go there due to Finney-Smith not producing that highly, but right now he is probably the best value on the slate and that is saying a lot.
Other PFs in Play:
High: N/A
Mid: Aaron Gordon ($6,400) or Kelly Olynyk ($7,100)
Cheap: Dillon Brooks ($4,800) or Jeff Green ($4,200)
C: Isaiah Hartenstein ($5,600)
I had to double take when I saw how Hartenstein has been performing over the last 4 games because it is actually insane. He has 38+ DK points in 4 straight with increasing production in each. They are finally realizing he is the better C over Precious who has his weaknesses. For that reason, he is playing close to 30 minutes every night. The matchup tonight is about as good as it gets against Detroit who might be without Duren and are top 10 in pace and bottom 3 in defensive efficiency. Regardless of the ownership projection, I really like Hartenstein tonight. I would be very surprised if this was the matchup he doesn’t show up in when this recent stretch was against some solid defenses.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Nikola Jokic ($11,900) or Nikola Vucevic ($8,500)
Mid: Nic Claxton ($6,400) or Jalen Duren ($7,000)
Cheap: Daniel Gafford ($5,900), Richaun Holmes ($4,800) or Bruno Fernando ($4,400)
