NBA - March 20th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Bruce Brown ($5,600)
With all of Quickley, Barrett and Poeltl out, the rotation for Toronto will resemble that of 3/11 when the played Denver without Quickley, Trent and Poeltl. In that game, Brown was able to produce 31 DK points in 38 minutes in a pretty tough matchup. Tonight he gets to face Sacramento who is in the top half of the league in pace and bottom half in defensive efficiency. This game has the 2nd highest implied total on the slate at over 230 points, so you will want to get pieces from it. With Brown expected to see big minutes once again, I see no reason he can’t be a major factor. The ball handling and usage will be there. He just has to make the most of this ceiling spot he is in. DFS Hero is projecting him for 25% ownership, but he is definitely in the good chalk category for today.
Other PGs in Play:
High: De’Aaron Fox ($9,000), Damian Lillard ($9,100) or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,400)
Mid: Cade Cunningham ($7,900) or Caris LeVert ($7,100)
Cheap: Keon Ellis ($3,700) or Scoot Henderson ($5,400)
SG: Malik Monk ($6,300)
Every single time I hitch my wagon to Monk he is absolutely terrible and when I don’t he goes off. One of these days I will get him right and I hope it is tonight. They will be without Huerter which should solidify his minutes even if they were secure as is. As of late, he has been on a heater with 38+ DK points in 5 of the last 7 games. This matchup against a depleted Raptors team is a great spot for him to continue the run. They are above average in pace and bottom 10 defensive efficiency. They are on a 7 game skid, averaging 120 points/game allowed so look for all of Sacramento, including Monk, to score efficiently. He is still priced cheap enough to fit in a number of more expensive options and carries the ceiling you need to win a GPP. That is exactly what you look for in DFS so I will be going to Monk tonight for sure.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Paul George ($8,400) or Desmond Bane ($8,100)
Mid: Anfernee Simons ($7,600) or Gary Trent ($6,100)
Cheap: Aaron Nesmith ($5,000) or Josh Giddey ($5,400)
SF: Jae Crowder ($3,300)
This one for sure could come back to haunt me. Looking at past rotations with Giannis out has been tough this year because Middleton was also out. The only game we have to go off of with Giannis out and Middleton active is last game which was Middleton’s first in over a month. Crowder performed exceptionally well with 29 DK points in 32 minutes off of the bench. I think his price is just criminally low and he is never going to project well with Middleton and Lillard active. That alone will probably have him project at around 4.8x value around the industry which for optimizers won’t be enough. He is a strong leverage option off of the other Bucks, but with his FPPM output typically being low it is risky. If his ownership starts creeping up then I would probably look elsewhere, but regardless he is going to get the minutes and is super cheap to allow you to get other studs in. What more can you ask for?
Other SFs in Play:
High: Jayson Tatum ($9,900)
Mid: Pascal Siakam ($7,700) or GG Jackson ($6,000)
Cheap: Stanley Umude ($3,900) or Gradey Dick ($4,700)
PF: Jordan Nwora ($3,800)
All of the injuries to the Raptors is causing these rotational pieces to get big minutes. Nwora has been a major benefactor of this, averaging 20 minutes/game over the last 3 and 26 DK points/game. He is the highest projected value on the slate by a good distance and I think it is for good reason. He is going to get the run, is cheap and opens up so much for you to build a high upside lineup. Similar to Brown, they play Sacramento which is a higher pace/poor defensive matchup that I think the Raptors, including Nwora, can take advantage of. They might get blown out, but even in that event Nwora will still play 20-25 minutes. Don’t overlook him tonight!
Other PFs in Play:
High: Kevin Durant ($9,400) or Jaren Jackson ($8,200)
Mid: Jalen Williams ($6,900) or Kelly Olynyk ($6,500)
Cheap: Keegan Murray ($5,500) or Jalen Smith ($3,900)
C: Domantas Sabonis ($10,600)
Let’s just finish the game stack while we are at it (I really didn’t try to do this). The Raptors have literally 3 NBA level players in their rotation right now and only one of them is a big (Kelly O). Sabonis is likely to dominate in this spot and we have all the value we could possibly want to make it happen. He has 60+ DK points in 5 of the last 7 games and is now in a clear ceiling spot to possibly be the highest scoring player on the slate. The only fear I have is if the Kings just start blowing them out, but I already have enough options from this game that I like to just full send it. If it fails me so be it, but I am all in on this SAC/TOR game and Sabonis is going to a big part of it.
Other Cs in Play:
High: DeAndre Ayton ($8,200)
Mid: Chet Holmgren ($7,200), Myles Turner ($6,600) or Bobby Portis ($6,000)
Cheap: Jontay Porter ($4,000)
