NBA - March 19th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
Socials
If you enjoy all of the content, there are multiple ways to show support! We have a Twitter and Discord Channel that you can join for up to the hour line up discussion and slate overviews! Click the links below to join/follow!
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. Come join the DFS Hero community today for 10% off your first month!
PG: Amen Thompson ($5,900)
There are a number of reasons that have me intrigued by Amen tonight. First off, the Rockets play the Wizards which is as good of a matchup as it gets with their league leading pace and bottom of the pack defensive efficiency. With him being in the starting lineup, the minutes are more secure and the way this team operates without Sengun is a bit different. The guards have the ball in their hands more which can only help Amen. He has 47 and 30 DK points in the last two in the starting lineup which should be his role once again. With dual position eligibility, fitting in Amen isn’t difficult and he is still a bit underpriced for the current production. On this smaller slate, hitting on the easy picks is important and I think that is what Amen is tonight.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Luka Doncic ($12,500) or Fred VanVleet ($8,600)
Mid: Jordan Poole ($6,600) or CJ McCollum ($6,500)
Cheap: Tre Jones ($5,600)
SG: Kyrie Irving ($9,200)
I think Luka is a bit banged up right now and it is showing in the performances. He has ONLY… 58 and 36 DK points in the last two games which by his standards is quite low. Irving has been taking advantage of that with 54 DK points in each of the last 3 games. With a matchup against the Spurs who are top 5 in pace and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency, Irving should be able to get his production with ease and the top priority will always be Luka. That alone gives him a big boost for both floor and ceiling. Being able to operate without the entire defense looking at you must be nice when you are that good in isolation. I think Irving keeps the run of good form going while the Spurs just try to shut Luka down. I think they actually have the ability to with Wemby in the paint.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Anthony Edwards ($9,800) or Jalen Green ($8,100)
Mid: Brandon Ingram ($7,700) or Trey Murphy ($6,100)
Cheap: Gary Harris ($3,600) or Cole Anthony ($4,300)
SF: Justin Champagnie ($4,200)
If you don’t have projections or are just a casual, you might just scroll right past Justin when picking your lineup. That is certainly not going to be the case for the sharps and those that follow closely. Champagnie has been quietly getting solid run for the Wizards with all of the injuries. He has 25 and 36 minutes in the last two games with a start in the last one and amassed 29 and 32 DK points in those contests. Tonight we have all of Shamet, Deni, Coulibaly and Tyus Jones all out. I fully expect Champagnie to start again and be a great value piece. DFS Hero is projecting him for around 15% ownership which I think grows as we get closer to lock and the touts steam him up. I am going to be with the field and have him owned in a lot of my lineups. The price is just too good to pass up.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Miles Bridges ($8,400)
Mid: Franz Wagner ($7,100) or Michael Porter Jr. ($6,700)
Cheap: Corey Kispert ($5,500)
PF: Jeremy Sochan ($5,800)
If you want a safe option that is probably going to hit 5-6x value, nothing more and nothing less, then Sochan is your guy. He has 27+ DK points in 9 straight games which is actually really solid for a guy that has varying usage rates between 10-30%. To me, that reads he can produce in a number of ways and really plays to the role they set for him in that matchup. The Spurs plays Dallas which is a high pace matchup and neither team is good defensively. With Sochan playing a whopping 42 minutes, that gives him plenty of opportunities to score and maybe have a ceiling performance. DFS Hero has his optimal rate close to 50% which is mostly due to the price and consistencies of late. I trust their model’s judgement and will be rolling him out with confidence tonight.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Zion Williamson ($8,700) or Kyle Kuzma ($8,200)
Mid: Jabari Smith ($6,900)
Cheap: Aaron Gordon ($5,700) or Dillon Brooks ($4,7000
C: Derek Lively ($4,000)
Tonight there are actually a lot of C options that are intriguing so ownership will be a bit more spread out. If you want to get a Luka or Jokic into your lineup, you are going to need a lot of value. I think you can do that by going with Lively. My first hope is that Gafford finds a way to get into foul trouble against Wemby. That will allow Lively to pick up some extra run. Also, Lively is seeing around a 15% ownership projection, but Gafford is closing in on 30%. There is a lot of leverage going to Lively tonight who is live to have the big game over Gafford. He might come off the bench, but the roles and minutes are almost a perfect 50/50 split so Lively gets the looks against the 2nd unit. You also have to factor in Lively is likely to get the blowout run over Gafford which tonight is certainly a possibility. I like his talent and the leverage he gives you tonight at a very cheap price. While it could blow up in my face, I think he has a strong chance at being optimal tonight.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Nikola Jokic ($12,100) or Victor Wembanyama ($10,600)
Mid: Rudy Gobert ($7,600) or Nic Claxton ($6,600)
Cheap: Wendell Carter ($5,600) or Daniel Gafford ($5,400)
