NBA - March 18th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Dalano Banton ($5,600)
Banton with a starting role is a different beast and the price point you are getting him at today is just too good to pass up. In his last two games, with both Grant, Brogdon and Sharpe out, has averaged 42 minutes/game with well over 30 DK points/game as well. He has 20 shots in each game as well which you won’t find at this price on the slate at all. He does play Chicago which isn’t always the best matchup with how slow they run, but they are not good defensively, especially at the guard position which is where Banton gets all of his run. DFS Hero is projecting him for big ownership which is fine. I say get different elsewhere and take the chalk Banton play tonight. He is just too good of a value to pass up.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Dejounte Murray ($9,800) or De’Aaron Fox ($8,900)
Mid: Anfernee Simons ($7,700) or Ayo Dosunmu ($6,500)
Cheap: Mike Conley ($5,800) or TJ McConnell ($4,600)
SG: Caris LeVert ($6,800)
If you are looking for a boom or bust type of player that can break a slate then LeVert is your guy. Over the last 10 games he has either scored over 40 DK points or under 30 DK points in each of them. Honestly it is impressive how inconsistently consistent he is, but what we look for is a strong ceiling which he has. Probably the best part about Caris is Donovan Mitchell and Max Strus are still going to be out and they play the Pacers who are top 5 in pace and bottom 5 in defensive efficiency. This is as good as it will get for Caris who clearly has the ability to hit his ceiling and the price is still tolerable.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Anthony Edwards ($10,000) or Tyrese Maxey ($8,600)
Mid: Malik Monk ($6,400) or Derrick White ($7,100)
Cheap: Sam Merrill ($4,200) or Sam Hauser ($5,100)
SF: Harrison Barnes ($4,200)
I can’t believe I am going to fall for this trap, but here we are. Barnes has 30+ DK points in 3 straight games. This guy is typically a big ole bum with a low FPPM output, but he has been able to get up shots more consistently to raise his floor and ceiling enough. I don’t know what changed, but with him being this cheap if he can keep it up he will be a great value piece to open up the rest of your roster for higher priced options. They play the Grizzlies who are a mid team in general so he should get efficient looks. The Kings as a whole are in a good spot and we just have to hope Barnes can keep up this level of play. Even if he regresses back to his norm, he should still be able to hit 5x value which won’t kill you. Barnes is just a very safe play tonight.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Jayson Tatum ($9,900) or Lebron James ($10,300)
Mid: Josh Hart ($7,200) or Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,600)
Cheap: Kyle Anderson ($5,500) or Georges Niang ($4,500)
PF: Pascal Siakam ($7,700)
This is probably going to be my big leverage play tonight. Siakam has quietly gotten into great form with 40+ DK points in 3 straight games with a 54 DK point ceiling to go with it. I don’t think many people are going to make this click with the Pacers playing the Cavs who are slower and more defensive, but without Mobley, Mitchell and Strus they really aren’t that great right now. Some of the youth they are having to role out has actually increased their pace considerably which puts Indiana in a good spot as well. I think his ability to stretch the floor will be a big help tonight. He is checking all of the boxes for me, so the low ownership to go with that really has my attention.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,600) or DeMar DeRozan ($8,300)
Mid: Jalen Johnson ($7,500)
Cheap: Jalen Smith ($4,000) or Toumani Camara ($4,400)
C: Clint Capela ($6,500)
This might not end up happening, so if the following scenario does NOT come to fruition, I would probably fade Capela. However, the Hawks play the Lakers and I am expecting Davis to be out due to that eye injury he suffered last game. That will make this matchup 10x better for Capela compared to if he plays. Capela is on a tear right now with 36+ DK points in 5 straight games with Okongwu out. With Davis also out, the Lakers will go to a lot of Jaxson Hayes or play small ball which Capela has been able to work against well lately (all of UTA, MEM and NOP run small ball lineups often and he played all 3 in the last 5 games). He is very likely to get you the double double bonus and maybe a couple blocks or steals. Even at this price, he should be able to have a ceiling game with how quick the Lakers run at. This game environment is something I really want to target and one of the best ways to do that will be with Capela tonight.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Domantas Sabonis ($10,500), Bam Adebayo ($8,700) or DeAndre Ayton ($8,200)
Mid: Jalen Duren ($7,000) or Myles Turner ($6,700)
Cheap: Isaiah Hartenstein ($5,200) or Walker Kessler ($5,400)
