NBA - March 15th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
Socials
If you enjoy all of the content, there are multiple ways to show support! We have a Twitter and Discord Channel that you can join for up to the hour line up discussion and slate overviews! Click the links below to join/follow!
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. Come join the DFS Hero community today for 10% off your first month!
PG: Jamal Murray ($8,100)
Murray has a lot going for him tonight. First off, his matchup against San Antonio is about as good as it gets for guards. They run at the 3rd fastest pace in the league and are bottom 10 in defensive efficiency this season. They are especially better at defending in the paint due to Wemby which could lead to Jokic letting Murray facilitate more and garner more usage. He did have a stinker last game, but prior to that he had 50+ DK points in 4 of 5 games in some relatively poor matchups. Now that the stars are aligning with the matchup, I think he can be a great spend up tonight.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Dejounte Murray ($9,500) or Cade Cunningham ($8,500)
Mid: Terry Rozier ($6,800) or Keyonte George ($6,600)
Cheap: Vasilije Micic ($6,000)
SG: Talen Horton-Tucker ($3,900)
He might be mega chalk, but it is too good to pass up given this is a slate with no late-swap. He is almost a guarantee for solid minutes and will certainly handle the ball a little bit in some lineups. He is extremely cheap which helps you build out your roster with higher priced options. He faces Atlanta who top 5 in pace and bottom 5 in defensive efficiency. This game might be messy, but guys are still going to have to score and we need to hope it comes from THT. In games with more than 20 minutes, he averages around 22 DK points/game and games he starts it is even higher. Lock him in if he starts and is still a strong play if he doesn’t.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Devin Booker ($9,000)
Mid: Collin Sexton ($7,300) or Bradley Beal ($6,900)
Cheap: Duncan Robinson ($5,100) or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,400)
SF: Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,700)
You know I love a good matchup and the entire Hawks team has one. With all of Trae, Bey and Onyeka out, the rotation for Atlanta is a lot thinner so big minutes for everyone. Bogdan has been a big beneficiary of this with 34+ minutes and 33+ DK points in 4 straight with a ceiling of 43 DK points. Against Utah he should be able to do just about whatever he wants given his size and how undersized Utah is playing. If his shots are falling he could easily smash in this spot. Best part is given this is a 9:30 game and he has a Q tag, you might see very low ownership on him with no late swap available. I am going to take the chance and roll with him tonight.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Jimmy Butler ($8,400)
Mid: Brandon Ingram ($7,700) or Michael Porter Jr. ($6,400)
Cheap: Jaime Jacquez ($4,900) or Simone Fontecchio ($5,300)
PF: Jonathan Isaac ($3,700)
This one is very risky given no late swap and things could open up to push him down the list of strong value plays. However, right now Isaac is on a streak of 4 straight games with 20+ DK points. The minutes aren’t really there, but his FPPM numbers be so strong he doesn’t need big minutes. He only need the 16-20 he is currently getting to get there at this price and if something were to fall his way he could easily be in position for a ceiling game. They also play Toronto who is thin at both C and PF which makes the matchup a whole lot easier, especially with the second unit for Isaac.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Zion Williamson ($8,300) or Kevin Durant ($9,600)
Mid: Jalen Johnson ($7,600)
Cheap: Aaron Gordon ($5,900) or Caleb Martin ($4,500)
C: Clint Capela ($6,300)
Capela has quietly been crushing it lately with 3 straight games of 36+ DK points. They face the Jazz who are top 10 in pace and bottom 3 in defensive efficiency. With so many injuries to the lineup, they are having to run Capela out there for extend rotations which shouldn’t change tonight. I don’t really have to go into much depth here. He is an incredibly safe play tonight, barring injury or foul trouble, that fits into just about every build and the game itself has the highest implied total on the slate at just a measly 224 points. Things are shaping up to be a low scoring night, but hopefully not for Capela.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Bam Adebayo ($8,400) or Nikola Jokic ($11,800)
Mid: Jusuf Nurkic ($7,200)
Cheap: Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,500) or Walker Kessler ($5,000)
