NBA - March 14th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Fred VanVleet ($8,300)
Easy matchup. Check. Playing great basketball. Check. Insane usage with injuries to the starting lineup. Check. I would be very surprised if VanVleet were to bust tonight against Washington who just got blasted by the G-League version of the Memphis. Without Sengun, he is asked to be much more of a facilitator with the ball moving through him. He scored 48 DK points vs. SA the other night in a game where both teams barely broke 100 points. This game where Houston has a 116 point implied team total gives me the impression he can break past that 48 DK points he scored the other night. I see him being chalky, but that is good chalk that I think eating tonight is the optimal move.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Luka Doncic ($12,700), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,400) or Damian Lillard ($8,600)
Mid: Tyus Jones ($6,200) or Derrick White ($7,000)
Cheap: Ayo Dosunmu ($5,900)
SG: Josh Giddey ($5,700)
Honestly I am not a fan of the SG position so hopefully something opens up. However, I think Giddey with how he has been playing is still a good shout to hit value. He has 28+ DK points in 5 straight games with a ceiling of 40 DK points. His minutes have been quite inconsistent, but generally he plays around 24-28 minutes which is fine. Even with Jalen Williams returning, the shots will still be there. He has had 9+ shots in 6 straight games and the peripherals are always going to be there. As long as this game against Dallas stays close, which it should, I think Giddey produces quite well in his current role. Can’t forget to mention Dallas runs at the 8th quickest pace and are in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Tyrese Maxey ($8,500) or Kyrie Irving ($8,400)
Mid: Jaylen Brown ($7,900) or Jalen Green ($7,700)
Cheap: Amen Thompson ($5,200)
SF: DeMar DeRozan ($8,200)
I am going to keep riding DeMar until it falls apart on me. He has been really solid lately as long as the games are competitive, averaging 53 DK points/game in the last 10 where the Bulls were within 8 of winning or did win. This matchup against LAC doesn’t give me a ton of confidence with both teams playing at a slower pace, but there are a lot of Q-tags for the Clippers that could make things easier from a defensive perspective for DeRozan. He projects as the best SF value per DFS Hero’s model which gives me a lot of confidence. He just needs to spike like he did last night for 67 DK points and we will be all good (don’t think it happens again but that would be nice).
Other SFs in Play:
High: Jayson Tatum ($9,800)
Mid: Josh Hart ($7,300) or Donte DiVincenzo ($7,100)
Cheap: Alex Caruso ($5,500) or Dillon Brooks ($4,500)
PF: Jabari Smith ($6,600)
He was pretty meh last game against SA which on paper looked like a good slate. However, with Wemby in the paint that kind of negated the role he was inheriting with Sengun out for the season. Now he gets to face Washington who plays a lot of small ball C which feeds into his game a lot more. Even last game with a poor implied matchup he still scored 32 DK points which is fine for this price. He has a ceiling and just needs the right matchup to unlock it. This definitely is the right spot with Washington being 1st in pace and tied for last in defensive efficiency. Lock and load on Jabari here.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400) or Kyle Kuzma ($8,200)
Mid: Jalen Williams ($6,800)
Cheap: PJ Washington ($5,100)
C: Daniel Gafford ($4,900)
I don’t really get what DK is doing here with Gafford. He has started 4 straight games, scored 34+ DK points in 3 straight and is still criminally underpriced for the upside. Yes he does split time with Lively, but even in the 24-26 minutes he plays, Gafford is efficient. The matchup against OKC isn’t the best, but I think Gafford will have a better time against Chet than Lively which could give him a minutes bump. I am just shocked they lowered his price after a 36 DK point performance when he was already really cheap. There isn’t much value, so take what you can get with Gafford tonight.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Nikola Vucevic ($8,500)
Mid: Chet Holmgren ($7,200) or DeAndre Ayton ($7,700)
Cheap: Ivica Zubac ($5,300) or Richaun Holmes ($4,500)
