NBA - March 13th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Bruce Brown ($5,100)
While I am a bit scared of chasing Brown’s big game coming back from injury, the expectation is that he gets big minutes once again. He played 38 minutes and scored 31 DK points with Quickley, Trent, Poeltl and Boucher out. For tonight, Poeltl and Barrett will be out which keeps the minutes that Brown is expected to get open. He might not get as high of a usage rate with Quickley and Trent back, but he should still get his shots up and pick up peripherals well. The matchup against Detroit is about as good as it gets as well so take advantage of the cheap price tag and ceiling.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Luka Doncic ($12,800) or Cade Cunningham ($8,600)
Mid: Jaden Ivey ($6,100) or Ayo Dosunmu ($6,100)
Cheap: TJ McConnell ($4,700)
SG: Klay Thompson ($6,400)
Without Steph, the usage for Klay skyrockets to over 30% which for how much he shoots gives him a big ceiling. He has 30+ DK points in 3 straight games and started last game which is a bigger deal than some think. They play Dallas tonight who are 6th in pace and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. He is going to get easier looks. It is just a matter of if his shot is falling and if the peripherals somehow start adding up he could break the slate.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Kyrie Irving ($8,600)
Mid: Terry Rozier ($7,100)
Cheap: Aaron Nesmith ($5,300)
SF: DeMar DeRozan ($8,200)
Anytime a team plays the Pacers I am going to be interested. Outside of the letdown against Dallas where the Bulls were down by close to 40 at one point, he had amassed 43+ DK points in 4 straight with most closer to 50 DK points than not. He is going to get huge minutes in the best matchup in the league outside of vs. Washington so efficient looks will be in play and in abundance. I am more than willing to go back to him in hopes the field got burnt by him enough and won’t want to take the risk. That was just one outlier performance where the whole team played horribly. I doubt that happens again.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Miles Bridges ($8,800)
Mid: Franz Wagner ($7,400)
Cheap: Ausar Thompson ($5,600) or Andrew Wiggins ($5,100)
PF: Pascal Siakam ($7,200)
Let’s run DeRozan back with Siakam who has been playing exceptional as well. He is coming off of a 45 DK point game against OKC that is a much tougher matchup than the one against Chicago tonight. The Bulls have allowed an average of close to 120 points/game over the last 10, so I think Indiana who runs at a quick pace can get close to matching that. His usage rate in the mid 20% range is very solid and if the peripherals can rack up then there is no reason he can’t have a ceiling performance. He is the best value PF based on DFS Hero’s model and the highest projected owned as well so there is a bit of risk. I am going to overlook that and eat the chalk on him tonight in what grades out as a good matchup for him.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Paolo Banchero ($8,900)
Mid: Michael Porter Jr. ($6,400) or Aaron Gordon ($6,000)
Cheap: Isaiah Stewart ($5,000) or Simone Fontecchio ($5,100)
C: Jalen Duren ($6,900)
He can be boom or bust at times with some real let down games scattered in, but for the most part he has a floor of around 40 DK points which is what we look for. He is going to face Toronto who is kind of playing without a true C right now. It is just Kelly O in the paint for them and he concedes a massive amount of rebounds to opposing Cs. They run at a solid pace to keep up with Detroit and don’t play much defense. This is a great spot to run out Duren even with the ownership projection being high. I think the field will get this one right.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Nikola Vucevic ($8,300)
Mid: Myles Turner ($6,200)
Cheap: Trey Jemison ($4,300) or Daniel Gafford ($5,000)
