NBA - March 12th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Fred VanVleet ($7,900)
I have a lot more faith in FVV than I do Amen which is the other option for the PG position, but I would bet good money one or both of these guys do very well in this matchup. They face the Spurs who are 4th in pace and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. VanVleet has been playing great basketball lately with 38+ DK points in 6 straight games with a ceiling of 52 DK points, one of those conveniently being against the Spurs like a week ago. His optimal rate is closing in on 30% for this slate with an ownership projection of just 15%. That gives him a strong, positive leverage score which is what you want. He checks a lot of boxes tonight so sign me up! Oh and I forgot to mention with Sengun out for probably the year, his assist % will certainly have to come up, even further boosting his ceiling.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,500) or Damian Lillard ($8,900)
Mid: Devin Vassell ($7,500) or Tyus Jones ($6,200)
Cheap: TJ McConnell ($4,700) or Amen Thompson ($4,900)
SG: Donte DiVincenzo ($6,900)
DiVincenzo is coming off of a 36 DK point performance which on paper at this price doesn’t really stand out. However, given that game was against Philly, who they play again tonight, with a final score of 73-79, it is extremely solid for him to score that well in such a low scoring environment. I doubt the game tonight has a score like that, so across the board things should improve for both teams. He has been playing very solid lately with 36+ DK points in 5 of the last 7 games with a ceiling of 52 DK points. While I don’t think he crushes tonight or has another ceiling game, he is underpriced for how he has been playing recently. Let’s just hope this one can break the 160 point mark so DiVincenzo and Co. can provide more DK points.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Jaylen Brown ($8,000)
Mid: Jalen Green ($7,800) or Jordan Poole ($6,700)
Cheap: Luke Kennard ($5,000) or Dillon Brooks ($4,300)
SF: Corey Kispert ($5,000)
With now both Bagley and Holmes out, they are forced into running Kuzma at the 5 which means massive minutes for Kispert. He started last game in this same scenario and managed 39 DK points in 38 minutes of run. There is no reason to believe he won’t do that again tonight barring an injury or foul trouble. They play the Grizzlies which is about as easy as it gets with JJJ now out as well. I think this whole Wizards team can have good games, but from a pricing and value perspective Kispert is ahead of them all.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Jayson Tatum ($9,700)
Mid: Pascal Siakam ($7,300) or Deni Avdija ($7,000)
Cheap: Jake LaRavia ($5,200) or Lu Dort ($5,200)
PF: Jabari Smith ($6,600)
Sadly the Rockets will be without Sengun for probably the rest of the season, which really benefits Smith in a big way. First off, he is going to get some C run which raises his rebound rate. His minutes were locked in at around 30-33, but that will only increase in this new role. They are vying for one of the last play-in spots, so every game is a must win. They are going to have the starters out there for extended periods. I think the best part is they play the Spurs who got wrecked by Sengun last game. If Smith is going to take over a portion of that role, I think there is a serious chance he has a ceiling performance tonight.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500)
Mid: Kristaps Porzingis ($7,700) or Jalen Williams ($6,900)
Cheap: Lamar Stevens ($5,100), GG Jackson ($5,600) or Jeff Green ($4,500)
C: Kyle Kuzma ($8,000)
I just don’t see a path to Kuzma not playing close to 40 minutes in a cupcake matchup against Memphis at that. They don’t have any C options and neither do the Grizzlies, so both teams will be running small ball. He has 50+ DK points in back to back games which for his price is still a great outcome. I can’t say I am in love with the C position as is, so getting a guy in Kuzma there where you know will get you plenty of minutes and usage is a good play. This game might be ugly, but both teams run at a fast pace and play little to no defense which is exactly what you want for DK scoring.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Domantas Sabonis ($10,400)
Mid: Rudy Gobert ($7,900) or Myles Turner ($6,300)
Cheap: Walker Kessler ($4,900) or Ivica Zubac ($5,300)
