NBA - February 28th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Terance Mann ($4,400)
Tonight we have the Battle for LA with the Lakers and Clips facing off. The Clippers will be without Paul George which opens up things for the other guards on this offense to get more run. Mann has three straight games with 25+ DK points and that includes a 44 DK point game against Memphis the other night. He is extremely affordable which lets you get in higher priced options as well. As long as he can do enough with peripherals, he should be able to easily hit value and be a key piece in your lineups tonight. The Lakers are 3rd in pace so it is a big pace up spot for them and aren’t the best against guards in general. Lock and load on Mann tonight.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Scottie Barnes ($9,200) or James Harden ($8,400)
Mid: Jamal Murray ($7,800) or D’Angelo Russell ($7,200)
Cheap: Ayo Dosunmu ($5,500) or Jordan Goodwin ($4,000)
SG: Norman Powell ($4,800)
I could pretty much copy and paste what I wrote about Mann for Powell. three straight games with 25+ DK points, is going to play big minutes and most likely start with George out, faces at Lakers team that runs at a fast pace and is affordable so you can fit in other high priced options. Powell is more dependent on his shot falling to get there, but he will certainly get plenty up with 13+ in each of the last three games. He has G and F eligibility which even further makes him easy to fit in and should be one of the corner stones of your lineup regardless of the implied 40% ownership projection he has for tonight.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Anthony Edwards ($8,900) or Brandon Ingram ($8,200)
Mid: Coby White ($7,300) or RJ Barrett ($6,800)
Cheap: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,200) or Gary Trent ($4,700)
SF: Lebron James ($9,100)
If we are going to load up on Clippers, why not run it back with a Laker for some easy correlation. James is coming off of 62 and 54 DK point performances in his last two games and the Clippers being in a bit of a slump will certainly get James to show up and play. He always wants to win these games and it shows in his performances against them recently. He has averaged close to 60 DK points in his last 4 games against the Clippers dating back to early 2023. I get those are predictive stats, but some guys just want to play in certain matchups and think that is the case for Lebron against the crosstown foes. He is also underpriced for the ceiling he provides even at the ripe age of 39 years old.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Kawhi Leonard ($8,700)
Mid: DeMar DeRozan ($7,600) or Michael Porter Jr. ($6,600)
Cheap: Jaden McDaniels ($3,900) or Bruce Brown ($4,000)
PF: Zion Williamson ($8,300)
I have to get a Pel against the Pacers who are honestly the best matchup on any slate, not just this one. Zion is coming into this one in good form with 45+ DK points in 6 of the last 8 games and the two he missed on were absolute blowouts. The Pacers are good enough to push any team and keep it interesting so lock and load on Zion tonight. Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum are both questionable which when that happens, one usually sits. This likely means massive Zion usage so as long as foul trouble doesn’t hit him, he should smash. For real, the Pacers are such a good matchup with their pace and defensive woes. I love Zion tonight with the matchup, usage and role all in his favor.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Karl Anthony-Towns ($8,100)
Mid: Nikola Vucevic ($7,900) or Evan Mobley ($7,200)
Cheap: Herb Jones ($5,900) or Lamar Stevens ($4,300)
C: Andre Drummond ($5,200)
They have already come out and stated that Drummond will start tonight and any time that happens and he is relatively cheap, I am going to love him. He has not gone under 33 DK points in any of his last 4 starts which at this price is almost 7x value. That is more than enough to help be in the optimal any night and this is just a 6 game slate. Yes it is a poor matchup against the Cavs, but the matchup isn’t why I am heavily on him. I just think this price is wayyy too low compared to the role he will play. The big issue is his ownership projection is double that of the next highest C at close to 40%. That is a bit crazy, but from a micro standpoint I always play Drummond when he starts and is under $6,000 so I will continue to do so.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Anthony Davis ($9,800) or Nikola Jokic ($11,700)
Mid: Rudy Gobert ($7,500) or Jakob Poeltl ($6,100)
Cheap: Ivica Zubac ($5,600) or Kelly Olynyk ($4,900)
