NBA - February 27th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,300)
No Trae for the next couple of weeks means Bogdan is going to be thrust into the starting lineup as one of the bigger usage guys. His first game in a while in that role, he played Orlando and got 30 DK points in 36 minutes of action. Orlando just runs at such a slow pace and his assist numbers weren’t really what they could have been (almost 7 expected assists and only 3 registered assists). Tonight against Utah who runs at a top 10 pace and is a bottom 10 defense in the league, I think he can get to a ceiling score pretty easily. DFS Hero is projecting him for about 22% ownership and a 33% optimal rate which makes him still a strong, positive leverage play. I love him in this spot and is a still a bit too cheap for the ceiling he offers.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Dejounte Murray ($8,900) or Damian Lillard ($8,600)
Mid: Coby White ($7,400) or Jrue Holiday ($6,000)
Cheap: Mike Conley ($5,500) or Jordan Poole ($5,800)
SG: Ayo Dosunmu ($5,400)
It is pretty crazy the run he has been on and DK has just hasn’t bumped his price up. He has 39+ minutes in 4 of the last 5 games with 38+ DK points in 3 of those contests. They play Detroit who is on the second leg of a back to back and played hard up until the end last night against the Knicks. They are probably going to be playing tired and the Bulls will certainly take advantage of it. This is definitely a pricing play and the rest of the field is seeing it that way as well. DFS Hero is projecting him for almost 30% ownership and a 34% optimal rate. He lets you fit in higher priced options, has a clear ceiling at this price and has a cupcake matchup. What more can you ask for?
Other SGs in Play:
High: Donovan Mitchell ($9,400) or Anthony Edwards ($9,000)
Mid: Collin Sexton ($6,500) or Jordan Clarkson ($6,000)
Cheap: Vasilije Micic ($4,000) or Cody Martin ($5,000)
SF: De’Andre Hunter ($5,300)
Another Hawk that is far too cheap playing Utah who is top 10 in pace and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. In his last 4 games, he has hasn’t scored under 30 DK points once with a 37 DK point ceiling. While his minutes aren’t exactly what they used to be, he is still closing games and playing close to 30 minutes a night. They will need him out there to defend Markkanen which I think could give him a few extra minutes. He is just not priced where he should be currently with Trae out and the bigs on this team banged up. They are sliding Jalen Johnson down and playing small ball quite often which opens up things for Hunter (and Bey). This is a great spot for Hunter to continue his strong run of play.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Jayson Tatum ($9,700) or Lauri Markkanen ($8,100)
Mid: DeMar DeRozan ($7,600) or Deni Avdija ($6,500)
Cheap: Andrew Wiggins ($5,400)
PF: Jalen Johnson ($7,900)
If you can’t tell by now that I am probably going to live and die by Atlanta tonight. I think this matchup is just so perfect for them. Over the last 6 games they have allowed on average 125 points/game and now that the Hawks are playing without Trae, they really haven’t done much to change the lineup. Considering Capela is banged up and Okongwu is out, they are running a lot of small ball lineups which really benefits JJ the most given he fits in at C in those sets. He is pretty much closing as their C right now (and will do so until Capela is 100%) which has him playing 37+ minutes/game right now. He is backing that up with stellar play, having 42 and 50 DK points in the last two games. Dejounte has taken over as the #1 option, but still facilitates enough that Jalen can be the #2 easily. I could see his price reaching close to $9,000 with how he has been playing and no Trae in the picture soon.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500)
Mid: Kyle Kuzma ($7,400) or Draymond Green ($6,400)
Cheap: Bobby Portis ($5,400) or Taylor Hendricks ($4,100)
C: Jarrett Allen ($7,300)
I flip flopped between Allen and Mobley here because I think the matchup is just way too strong for them. They play the Mavs who are below average defensively and run at a top 10 pace, but against Cs they are much worse. Lively and now Gafford (the Wizards were dead last against Cs when he was on the team) are just not good defenders so Allen (and Mobley) should be able to eat. The reason I am siding with Allen is the rebound rate is a good bit higher so I think his chances of a double double are strong in this one. His offensive output is what might be a bit behind Mobley, but in the last 6 games he has 9+ shots in each (mostly around the basket) 18 and 16 in the last two games. I just can’t pass that up in this one. He has 36+ DK points in each of the last 6 games as well with most well over 40 DK points. The best part for me is his ownership projection is only around 5% per DFS Hero’s model. Lock and load on Allen (or Mobley if you want) here.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,200)
Mid: Kristaps Porzingis ($7,500) or Evan Mobley ($7,100)
Cheap: Nick Richards ($5,600) or Wendell Carter ($5,300)
