NBA - February 26th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
Socials
If you enjoy all of the content, there are multiple ways to show support! We have a Twitter and Discord Channel that you can join for up to the hour line up discussion and slate overviews! Click the links below to join/follow!
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. Come join the DFS Hero community today for 10% off your first month!
PG: Tyrese Haliburton ($9,500)
The minutes limit is over and prior to that he was well over $10,000 in salary. You are still getting him at a premium and I would say that is something that needs to be taken advantage of. He faces Toronto tonight and the team has a 125.25 point implied total which is the highest on the slate by a good distance. The Raptors are bottom 10 in defense efficiency and atleast they run at an above average pace. As long as this game stays close, I think he has a 60+ DK point ceiling and almost a lock for a double double. On such a small slate, getting the raw points is most important and I think of the studs, he is in the best spot.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Jalen Brunson ($9,700) or De’Aaron Fox ($8,300)
Mid: Immanuel Quickley ($7,200)
Cheap: Dennis Schroder ($4,500) or Andrew Nembhard ($5,100)
SG: Bennedict Mathurin ($5,500)
Since entering the starting lineup, he has yet to fall below 32 DK points and has shown a ceiling of 40+ DK points. He is playing 30+ minutes currently with a 1.1 FPPM output which is exactly what you like to see for these lower mid range plays that have a chance at being optimal. Just like I said with Haliburton, the matchup against Toronto is a good one given they are bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. He is still just too cheap and the leverage score given by DFS Hero just solidifies things for me. With his ownership being around 30% and the optimal rate close to 40%, you are still getting positive leverage on the young guard. Lock and load with Mathurin in this role until they boost his price.
Other SGs in Play:
High: N/A
Mid: RJ Barrett ($7,000) or Mikal Bridges ($7,200)
Cheap: Quentin Grimes ($3,600) or Ziaire Williams ($4,700)
SF: Josh Hart ($6,500)
It is crazy how the narrative on Hart and DiVincenzo has basically flipped since a couple of weeks ago. Hart is now the one carrying the load behind Brunson and is picking up the peripherals to go with it. He has 35+ DK points in 5 of the last 8 games with a ceiling of 60 DK points which is slate breaking. I don’t think he will hit that tonight, but the matchup is set up for him to do so. They play Detroit who we all know is terrible being bottom 10 in defensive efficiency while also running at a top 10 pace. He’s going to be out there for atleast 35 minutes and could even touch 40 minutes if this stays close. I just think for the price, he is still a steal.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Scottie Barnes ($8,900)
Mid: Vince Williams ($6,900)
Cheap: Malik Monk ($5,800) or Simone Fontecchio ($4,800)
PF: Keegan Murray ($5,100)
DFS Hero is projecting him to be the 2nd highest owned PF on the slate just behind Jaren Jackson, but actually has a decent optimal rate because of the price tag. He hasn’t been playing too good lately, but he is still playing well over 30 minutes/night and has a decent usage rate. He has the ability to have a ceiling game if the shot is falling which is what we look for. He is coming off of a 28 DK point game against the Clippers last night which is a low pace/solid defensive matchup like they have against Miami tonight. I think he should be able to get you what you need and is cheap enough to fit in other high priced options while also maintaining a strong ceiling. I think he would be my least favorite of my “Starting Five” just due to the fact that the PF position isn’t the best to me tonight. Keegan does have a low floor so tread lightly, but the ceiling and price have me interested.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,900)
Mid: Precious Achiuwa ($7,000)
Cheap: GG Jackson ($4,900)
C: Jakob Poeltl ($6,400)
Coming in with the highest leverage score on the slate is Poeltl who I think is being seriously underrated tonight. You have the likes of Duren, Claxton and Myles Turner all a couple $100’s more in salary above him and all 3 project just slightly better. They will draw a ton of ownership which takes away from Poeltl who might be in the best matchup of them all. Any team facing the Pacers is in a good spot given they run at the fastest pace in the league and get up a massive amount of shots. Poeltl should easily get the rebounds and has to play a good chunk of minutes with Indiana being a bigger team. He has 40+ DK points in 2 of the last 3 games which is very solid. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 10% ownership, but has a 20% optimal rate. I think he is still a great play tonight in a very easy matchup.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Domantas Sabonis ($10,200) or Bam Adebayo ($8,600)
Mid: Jalen Duren ($6,800), Myles Turner ($6,900) or Nic Claxton ($6,700)
Cheap: Kelly Olynyk ($4,600)
