NBA - February 23rd Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Darius Garland ($6,300)
Whether or not Mitchell plays or not, Garland is just far too cheap when he has no minutes limit and is playing one of the worst defensive teams in the league right now. Since the middle of January, Philly has been 2nd to last in defensive efficiency and this is still a pace up spot for the Cavs. He started out slow on Thursday against Orlando, but that is honestly not surprising given Orlando is one of the better defensive teams in the league and run at a terribly slow pace. He still managed 40 DK points which is great for a guy at this price. Maybe Mitchell playing will bring his ownership down a bit and I am all for it. He should still be able to facilitate just fine and get plenty of shots up as the teams 3rd option.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Trae Young ($9,400) or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,900)
Mid: Tyus Jones ($6,100) or Immanuel Quickley ($6,900)
Cheap: Jose Alvarado ($3,500)
SG: Gary Trent ($4,300)
This is a smaller 6 game slate with not a ton of value present, so finding those pieces will be crucial. I think people are overlooking how well Trent has been playing lately. He has 34 and 25 DK points in the last two games with 30+ minutes in each. They clearly want him out there and this matchup against Atlanta couldn’t be a better fit for him. They run at the 3rd fastest pace in the league and have the league’s worst defensive efficiency. Toronto should be able to put up a ton of points and extra shots due to the pace up nature. Hopefully Trent can be on the end of plenty of that production. He is just really cheap for the current role.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Donovan Mitchell ($9,500) or Devin Booker ($9,600)
Mid: Dejounte Murray ($7,500) or Vince Williams ($7,000)
Cheap: Eric Gordon ($4,800) or Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,600)
SF: Royce O’Neale ($4,100)
With Beal out, O’Neale is once again likely to get like 30 minutes of run and if that is the case you almost have to play him. He has 27+ DK points in 3 straight games which is great for a guy at this price. He lets you fit in more priced up options that have a higher ceiling to bring you to the top of leaderboards. DFS Hero is projecting him for close to 20% ownership which seems fair and the optimal rate is close to 30%. He is a good leverage piece even at the inflated ownership which is what you want to see. The only cause for concern is that they play Houston who can be stingy defensively, but given they have allowed 120+ points in each of the last two games, that shouldn’t be much of an issue.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Scottie Barnes ($8,800)
Mid: Jimmy Butler ($7,700) or RJ Barrett ($6,900)
Cheap: Herb Jones ($4,800) or Lu Dort ($4,600)
PF: Jalen Williams ($7,200)
I want a piece of OKC against Washington and I am doing so through Jalen Williams. He has been hot lately with 40+ DK points in 4 of the last 5 games with a ceiling of 55 DK points. Again, they play Washington who is bottom 5 in defensive efficiency and top 5 in pace. There is a serious path to the Thunder scoring close to 130 points tonight if not more and I see no reason that Williams can’t be a big part of that. DFS Hero is only projecting him for around 10% ownership which feels low, but it is early in the day. That should come up, but the optimal rate is nearly 30% so his ownership could be well above its current projection and you would still be getting leverage with Williams. I love him tonight in an easy matchup.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Kevin Durant ($9,700)
Mid: Zion Williamson ($7,900) or Jalen Johnson ($7,300)
Cheap: Corey Kispert ($4,300) or De’Andre Hunter ($4,900)
C: Ivica Zubac ($5,400)
I am going right back to Zubac tonight given he put up 33 DK points in 29 minutes of action and did not see his price increase. He is just too cheap for the role. He was on a strict minutes limit prior to the All-Star break which is why his price was down, but they failed to factor in that would be gone after so take advantage of it. They play Memphis who is quite frankly a shell of themselves with almost every starter out currently. They are horrible defensively and it is still a pace up spot for the Clippers. I will probably be riding with Zubac until they price him closer to $6,000.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Bam Adebayo ($8,400)
Mid: Evan Mobley ($7,000) or Kyle Kuzma ($7,400)
Cheap: Marvin Bagley ($5,500)
