NBA - December 5th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Not to mention you get all sports! I have been using their data and ownership for well over a year now and it has made a much better DFS player and bettor. With numerous 1st place and top 1% finishes, it has helped grow my bankroll and hopefully it can help you grow yours too! Come join the DFS Hero community today for 15% off your first month (Use code KYLE)
Previous Day Recap:
PG: D’Angelo Russell / 18.75 / 3.8x / Trash
SG: Derrick White / 46.5 / 7.0x / Smash
SF: Jimmy Butler / 41.75 / 5.6x / Smash
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo / 53.75 / 4.4x / Okay
C: Clint Capela / 34.25 / 6.6x / Smash
Analysis: Overall it was a decent day. I just wish I hadn’t played Giannis even with all the Celtics chalk. If I pivot off of him I probably have a 3-4x type of night, but we will settle with being in the green. Russell also sucking did us no favors.
**I am going to write about my Starting Five for NON SPURS. You can pretty much lock in 3-4 Spurs into every lineup with Wemby OUT and their incredibly soft pricing + golden matchup against Chicago who is 2nd in pace and has the 3rd worst defensive efficiency.
PG: Jalen Brunson ($8,400)
The price reaction after two bad games, both of which he played 10 fewer minutes than usual in blowouts, is a bit over the top. Prior to those games, he had 52+ DK points in 4 of the last 5 and now he gets to face a Charlotte team that really has nobody that can defend him. They are without LaMelo and Miles Bridges which will make things a lot easier for the Knicks on the defensive end. As long as this game stays somewhat close, he should smash this price tag. My only concern is this is one of the slower paced games on the slate and has the lowest implied total. However, the field definitely will be aware of that which could bring his ownership down. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 8% ownership which isn’t even top 10 amongst PGs. You can roster him and have massive leverage over the field and still have a guy that has a big ceiling in a relatively easy matchup.
Honorable Mentions:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,100)
Josh Giddey ($6,600)
Chris Paul ($5,900)
Ayo Dosunmu ($5,300)
SG: Malik Monk ($6,700)
Since entering the starting lineup, Monk has been an absolute animal, scoring 40+ DK points in both games and prior to that even off the bench he scored 50+ DK points in those two games as well. He has come back from injury a whole new player and the one soft spot the Grizzlies have defensively, based on the numbers, is against SGs. Everywhere else they are fairly stout. Fox will have to deal with Ja most of the night and Sabonis will have to deal with JJJ on defense most of the game. I think those two factors alone solidify his usage and Monk will have to have a great game. If not, they probably get blown out. Not to mention the Grizzlies are 1st in pace this season. Give me Monk who is hot right now in a massive pace up spot where he will get plenty of looks.
Honorable Mentions:
Devin Booker ($9,400)
Brandon Miller ($8,500)
Zach Lavine ($7,600)
Devin Vassell ($5,000)
Stephon Castle ($4,900)
SF: Scottie Barnes ($9,100)
This is risky because the Thunder are great defensively and have a match made in heaven to stop Barnes in Lu Dort. I just can’t get away from the minutes and usage. He is going to be a necessity if they want to somehow give OKC their best shot, it is that simple. He has 45+ DK points in each of the last 6 games with most being closer to 60 DK points. There is enough value on this slate to make it work and most of the value comes at the PG and C where the few premier spend up options are. So do you risk not taking the glaring value at those positions or do you just take it and spend up at the other positions that don’t have as good of value? I am going with the later so give me Barnes even if it isn’t the best matchup.
Honorable Mentions:
Josh Hart ($6,700)
OG Anunoby ($6,100)
Talen Horton-Tucker ($3,100)
Matas Buzelis ($3,000)
PF: Evan Mobley ($7,800)
I want pieces from this game as the Cavs and Nuggets have the 2nd highest implied game total on the slate. The Nuggets really aren’t as good defensively as it seems and they have the 5th worst PF DvP in the league this season. Even with Joker in the paint, all he has to do is stay out of foul trouble and he will play 35+ minutes just out of necessity. In the highest scoring environments this season, Mobley has been consistently hitting his ceiling, so if Vegas is saying this will be high scoring than I want Mobley. There is a lot of ownership going to the value options at PF which should keep ownership at bay. That is the perfect opportunity to roster Mobley and gain leverage over the field.
Honorable Mentions:
Jalen Williams ($8,700)
RJ Barrett ($8,200)
Santi Aldama ($5,500)
Royce O’Neale ($4,900)
Oso Ighodaro ($4,400)
C: Jonas Valanciunas ($5,700)
Disclaimer here, but you should be playing one of Bassey or Collins. I prefer Bassey at the flat minimum, but Collins is good too with Wemby out. They are just too cheap. However, JoVal is also way too cheap for being in the starting lineup. With Kuzma out, he has been great with 30+ DK points in back to back games as a starter. He gets to face Dallas in a faster paced matchup and they have the 5th worst C DvP this season. His ownership literally can’t be high with Jokic and then complete bottom bin value in Bassey and Collins that both projecting for 7x value or higher. That also doesn’t factor in any other Cs. This feels like it is a double C night and you can get a bit of leverage with JoVal who is still in a great spot.
Honorable Mentions:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,000)
Nikola Vucevic ($8,500)
Yves Missi ($5,100)
Zach Collins ($3,500)
Charles Bassey ($3,000)
