NBA - December 4th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Not to mention you get all sports! I have been using their data and ownership for well over a year now and it has made a much better DFS player and bettor. With numerous 1st place and top 1% finishes, it has helped grow my bankroll and hopefully it can help you grow yours too! Come join the DFS Hero community today for 15% off your first month (Use code KYLE)
Previous Day Recap:
PG: Vasilije Micic / 10.5 / 2.3x / Trash
SG: Brandon Miller / 42.75 / 5.3x / Okay
SF: Scottie Barnes / 58 / 7.0x / Smash
PF: Evan Mobley / 39.5 / 5.1x / Okay
C: Victor Wembanyama / 45.75 / 4.3x / Trash
Analysis: Micic what the heck. 19 minutes? Mobley in a blowout, Wemby started out terribly, I played a lot of Garland and Brogdon who got hurt. Just got beat by injuries and blowouts. Can’t win them all, but hopefully the skid comes to an end soon.
PG: D’Angelo Russell ($4,900)
Still far too cheap if we are going to be playing 25+ minutes starting or not. He did start last game, but I expect Reaves to be back so Russell will head back to the bench. In his last 4, he has scored 28+ DK points in all of them. His matchup off the bench might be even better given the Heat don’t have the best guard depth. His price makes it easy to fit in other studs and he is fighting with Mike Conley for ownership and at the moment, Conley is projecting better. That alone will bring Russell’s ownership down. I know he is boom or bust in most regards and if his shot isn’t falling off the bench they don’t go to him. I just find looking back he is quite streaky and right now he is hot. Even with Miami being a slow and more defensive team, but they do have a middle of the pack PG DvP which is where they seem to be more vulnerable. I think between the price and his ownership dropping going back to the bench, I want to ride with him one more time just on the merit he is playing great ball right now.
Honorable Mentions:
Damian Lillard ($9,600)
Trae Young ($8,800)
Tyrese Haliburton ($8,200)
Dennis Schroder ($7,500)
Mike Conley ($4,800)
SG: Derrick White ($6,600)
On paper and in the projections, SG kind of sucks tonight. White is just about the only one that stands out in a way. He faces Detroit and the Celtics have one of the highest team totals on the slate. For his price, he is playing great with 33+ DK points in 4 straight games. The defensive pressure he should see isn’t anything crazy and Tatum + Brown will get more attention anyways. I just don’t love anyone at this position tonight, so I am rolling with the one that I feel is in the best matchup comparative to the price tag.
Honorable Mentions:
Jaylen Brown ($8,200)
Norman Powell ($6,100)
Payton Pritchard ($5,500)
Dalton Knecht ($4,700)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3,900)
SF: Jimmy Butler ($7,500)
He is questionable tonight, so keep that in mind. However, if he plays, I don’t see anyone going to him and the data really favors him. They play the Lakers who are bottom 6 in defensive efficiency and have the 4th worst SF DvP this season, which is best for this slate. Butler always shows up against the Lakers, scoring 44+ DK points in each of the last 4 meetings. Even for a 6 game slate, I can’t see him being more than 5% owned which is a steal if you ask me. DFS Hero tends to believe it with just a 4% ownership projection. It is risky given the injury status, but if he plays he is a great leverage GPP piece to make you unique.
Honorable Mentions:
Franz Wagner ($9,800)
Paul George ($7,500)
Cameron Johnson ($6,600)
De’Andre Hunter ($4,900)
Zaccharie Risacher ($4,000)
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,100)
I want to go with Cameron Johnson here, but I can’t go with another questionable guy and risk him being out for content sake. The next best spot on the slate is none other than Giannis. If you can find the value to put around him I think you do it. He has the highest ceiling on the slate and gets to face the Hawks in a pace up matchup against a bottom 10 defense. His last two games against them he has 69 and 76 DK points. I want pieces from this game as it has the highest implied game total on the slate by over 10 points. I think the field will opt to go down to Tatum, AD or Franz who are much cheaper and also in a good spots which will keep his ownership at bay. If that is going to be the case I will be all over him. Just looking at the DFS Hero data, the early projections have most going to a balanced build and starting with Harden. Again, if you can fit him in, I think you get to Giannis tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Jayson Tatum ($10,200)
Rui Hachimura ($4,800)
Naz Reid ($4,600)
Jarace Walker ($3,800)
Derrick Jones Jr. ($3,700)
C: Clint Capela ($5,200)
Day in and day out, Capela almost always gets disrespected with his price tag. Yes he is splitting with Okongwu, but that has not mattered so far this season. He has 28+ DK points in 10 of the last 12 games with numerous 35+ DK point games. With that output, he should be priced in and around the low $6,000 range. Take advantage of the pricing inefficiency tonight. He plays Milwaukee who does have a good C DvP, but on this slate there is only 1 team that has a bottom 10 C DvP and that is the Lakers. A lot of risky plays tonight as Capela could get the backseat to Okongwu any given night, but I am willing to take the risk even if the ownership is projected to be top 3 amongst Cs for the slate.
Honorable Mentions:
Anthony Davis ($10,500)
Bam Adebayo ($8,000)
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,000)
Myles Turner ($6,900)
Goga Bitadze ($5,100)
Onyeka Okongwu ($4,600)
