NBA - December 3rd Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Not to mention you get all sports! I have been using their data and ownership for well over a year now and it has made a much better DFS player and bettor. With numerous 1st place and top 1% finishes, it has helped grow my bankroll and hopefully it can help you grow yours too! Come join the DFS Hero community today for 15% off your first month (Use code KYLE)
Previous Day Recap:
PG: Keon Johnson / 20.75 / 5.9x / Okay
SG: Dalton Knecht / 9.25 / 1.9x / Trash
SF: Trey Murphy / 29.75 / 4.8x / Okay
PF: Cameron Johnson / Out
C: Onyeka Okongwu / 20 / 4.2x / Trash
Analysis: I am in a full on slump. Granted I did say news could ruin a lot of the Starting Five and it did, but these guys were some cheeks yesterday. 4 game slates can be tricky and you basically had to have Giddey and Vuc with the Coby White OUT news, Jaime Jacquez with the Butler OUT news and Payton Pritchard with the Jrue Holiday OUT news. I had the opposites (Lavine/Herro/Bam/White) which went absolutely nowhere. I guess that is what I get for getting cute. We move onto what looks like a better slate today.
PG: Vasilije Micic ($4,500)
No LaMelo Ball, Tre Mann or Miles Bridges. He is going to have to play 30+ minutes and has been scoring quite well in this same scenario the last few games. He has 23 and 37 DK points in the two games without all 3 and against Philly tonight I expect similar results. I know the Matchup Table doesn’t really favor him, but it can’t take into account pricing which is the main reason for Micic. He is far too cheap for the role he has tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Luka Doncic ($11,000)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,300)
Darius Garland ($7,500)
Jordan Poole ($6,900)
Cason Wallace ($4,300)
SG: Brandon Miller ($8,000)
Let’s just go ahead and take the other Hornet who is going to be a usage monster. Miller without both Bridges and Ball has a usage rate average of 35%. That is absolutely insane. Yes this is a slower paced matchup against Philly, but they actually have the 11th worst SG DvP which is Miller’s primary position. He just scored 56 DK points in 39 minutes against Atlanta last game with both out and I could see it happening again for him. With Embiid out, the Sixers are a lot more vulnerable defensively and just on usage alone Miller should be able to get his buckets. As long as this game doesn’t end something like 100-90, Miller should smash.
Honorable Mentions:
Donovan Mitchell ($9,100)
Devin Booker ($8,900)
Bennedict Mathurin ($7,000)
Malcolm Brogdon ($5,900)
SF: Scottie Barnes ($8,300)
He has 45+ DK points in 5 straight games, is priced well below his ceiling and is in a great matchup against Indiana who has had a bottom 3 defensive efficiency this season. He is kind of a unicorn in the sense he plays a bunch of different positions so looking at DvP data isn’t really worth it. I just really like this game environment for him. DFS Hero is projecting him for big ownership (as does Miller and Micic), so you will need to find a low owned leverage play to pair with him, but I think he is the chalk you want to take tonight. Without Quickley, he is just on another level and the last 4 games against Indiana he has scored 48+ DK points with a ceiling of 67 DK points in their last matchup. Lock and load on Barnes tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
RJ Barrett ($7,900)
Kelly Oubre ($5,300)
Quentin Grimes ($5,300)
Cody Martin ($5,000)
Ricky Council ($3,700)
PF: Evan Mobley ($7,800)
For starters, he gets to face off against Washington who is 2nd in pace and dead last in both overall defensive efficiency and PF DvP. This is literally the best matchup possible for Mobley. He is coming off of a poor game against Boston (that is to be expected), but prior to that had 47 and 60 DK points against Atlanta which is a similar matchup. This feels like the perfect ceiling opportunity for Mobley and with a few other value PFs + Giannis taking up ownership, I can’t envision his will get too high. I think he is a good leverage option that allows you to get a piece of the highest projected scoring total team on the slate in Cleveland.
Honorable Mentions:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000)
Pascal Siakam ($7,600)
Alexander Sarr ($5,400)
Oso Ighodaro ($3,800)
Tidjane Salaun ($3,800)
C: Victor Wembanyama ($10,600)
My stand tonight is going to be playing Wemby as my spend up even with Luka and Giannis on the slate. First off, they are giving him massive minutes which is exactly what you need to see from Wemby. If he is out there on the court, he is going to put up numbers. He gets to face off against Phoenix which might be a slight pace down spot, but they do have the 7th worst defensive efficiency this season. Now the real kicker is Nurkic is out, so he is going to be drawing coverage from both Mason Plumlee and Oso Ighodaro. I see no reason he can’t abuse that matchup. The icing on the cake: The Suns allow the 4th most points to Cs this season. If he is going to get efficient scoring opportunities then sign me up. I have some concerns that the Bucks and Giannis blowout the Pistons and the Mavs and Luka will struggle against Memphis who is great defensively and finally has their team back to full strength (minus Edey). Wemby is in a very good scoring environment and has the ceiling plus he is coming off of an 80 DK point performance against the Kings. He is hot and you are getting a little bit of savings off of Giannis and Luka with Wemby so I am rocking with him tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Isaiah Hartenstein ($7,300)
Jakob Poeltl ($7,200)
Myles Turner ($6,700)
Goga Bitadze ($5,300)
Jonas Valanciunas ($5,200)
