NBA - December 11th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Not to mention you get all sports! I have been using their data and ownership for well over a year now and it has made a much better DFS player and bettor. With numerous 1st place and top 1% finishes, it has helped grow my bankroll and hopefully it can help you grow yours too! Come join the DFS Hero community today for 15% off your first month (Use code KYLE)
Previous Day Recap:
PG: Cole Anthony / 7 / 1.7x / Trash
SG: Lu Dort / 27 / 6.1x / Smash
SF: Alex Caruso / 21.5 / 5.8x / Smash
PF: Jalen Williams / 32.75 / 3.8x / Trash
C: Giannis Antetokounmpo / 56.25 / 5.1x / Okay
Analysis: 2 game slates a tricky, but I am glad I atleast pivoted off of Anthony for Black due to the ownership. You needed more of the Magic than I expected so it wasn’t a great night for main slate, but I had a SD lineup that 30x’d so that was nice for the bankroll. Same type of slate tonight so let’s hope we just nail the right pieces.
PG: Jalen Brunson ($8,500)
We want to attack the worst positional DvPs on this slate and we can do that by going to Brunson here. They face the Hawks who have had the 6th worst PG DvP this season. It is a massive pace up spot for the Knicks so there will be close to 5 extra possessions going their way. He is starting to pick it back up after a slew of bad games in a row. He has 43 and 53 DK points in his last two games. This just feels like the spot for Brunson and the numbers back it up. DFS Hero is giving him a 43% optimal rate for tonight, so I am going to take that and run with it by locking in Brunson.
Honorable Mentions:
Steph Curry ($9,500)
Trae Young ($9,400)
Fred VanVleet ($7,300)
Miles McBride ($4,100)
SG: Mikal Bridges ($6,000)
We will continue on with another Knick in a great spot. Bridges has 30+ DK points in 5 straight games and the Hawks also are 6th worst in terms of SG DvP. They struggle to defend the guard position which is primarily where Bridges plays. The SG position isn’t exactly load with only 3 if not 4 guys that are really rosterable. This is kind of a coin flip between him and Jalen Green, but for me the implied team total being 10 points higher for the Knicks, the better pace and better implied matchup all have me siding with Bridges for this one.
Honorable Mentions:
Jalen Green ($6,500)
Amen Thompson ($6,300)
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,900)
SF: Dillon Brooks ($4,400)
There really isn’t much value on this slate, but that certainly could change come tip off with a few big Q tags on Sengun and the Hawks. Brooks is quite boom or bust, but when he hits there is a strong optimal chance and on a 2 game slate his booms are almost a guarantee optimal. Golden State is middle of the pack defensively against SF so nothing to worry about there. This is the type of game the Rockets should want to play Brooks big minutes for his stingy defense and will be able to slow down Steph quite well. I just think you need to go to him so you can round your roster out with better players and not have to live in the mid range. He could bust, but atleast he opens up a lot for the rest of your team.
Honorable Mentions:
Josh Hart ($7,100)
OG Anunoby ($6,200)
DeAndre Hunter ($5,800)
Tari Eason ($5,200)
Zaccharie Risacher ($4,300)
PF: Jonathan Kuminga ($5,400)
This is an auto-lock for me. The price tag hasn’t come up to the spot it should be since being named a starter. I think they are giving him big minutes and usage in the attempt to boost his value so they can trade him for a star at the deadline. He played 36 minutes last game and scored 41 DK points which makes it 40+ DK points in 2 of the last 3 games. The Rockets do have a good PF DvP, but the pace for this game is quite high and that feeds into how Kuminga wants to play. The icing on the cake is these teams played 6 days ago (granted Steph and Draymond were OUT for that game) and Kuminga dropped 46 DK points. Just go ahead and trust the 51% optimal rate that DFS Hero is giving him tonight and play him.
Honorable Mentions:
Jalen Johnson ($8,300)
Draymond Green ($6,700)
Andrew Wiggins ($6,600)
Jabari Smith ($5,300)
Precious Achiuwa ($3,800)
C: Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700)
I know we want Brunson, but we want Towns too. The Hawks have the 8th worst C DvP this season, like I said above with Brunson and Bridges this is a massive pace up spot with the Knicks getting extra possessions over their average. KAT is coming off of a 61 DK point game and hasn’t had less than 45 DK points in any of the last 13 games and hasn’t busted for less than 40 DK points in any of the last 20 games. He is a lock for close to 50 DK points and there isn’t anyone to spend up for on this slate. KAT at $9,700 is the most expensive. He isn’t hard to fit in and has the best matchup tonight amongst Cs. I will say the C optimal rates are spread out quite a bit tonight, so if you want to pivot here I won’t try to talk you out of it. However, KAT has the highest ceiling on this slate and for 2 gamers you kind of need to just go for raw points and fill out the rest with what you can. KAT provides those raw points.
Honorable Mentions:
Alperen Sengun ($9,200)
Clint Capela ($5,700)
Onyeka Okongwu ($4,700)
Kevon Looney ($4,000)
Steven Adams ($3,400)** If Sengun is OUT
