NBA - December 13th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Not to mention you get all sports! I have been using their data and ownership for well over a year now and it has made a much better DFS player and bettor. With numerous 1st place and top 1% finishes, it has helped grow my bankroll and hopefully it can help you grow yours too! Come join the DFS Hero community today for 15% off your first month (Use code KYLE)
PG: Vasilije Micic ($5,100)
Anytime you get a matchup against Chicago, it i almost always going to be good for you. Charlotte takes on the Bulls tonight who are 2nd in pace and have the 3rd worst defensive efficiency. For Micic, he has 30+ DK points in 3 straight games so there is already a good amount of implied value based on the price and current production. To further glorify the matchup, the Bulls have the 2nd worst PG DvP and are allowing the most assists/game to PGs this season. The stars are aligning for Micic in this spot to have a ceiling performance. This is the perfect spot and price to get Micic at and even as a massive chalk piece, I think you have to eat that chalk.
Honorable Mentions:
Anthony Edwards ($9,200)
Darius Garland ($7,500)
Coby White ($6,900)
Mike Conley ($4,700)
Kevin Porter ($4,200)
SG: Coby White ($6,900)
This is a bit of projecting, but I am expecting Josh Giddey to be out for this game. He is questionable with back spasms that started Wednesday. It caused him to leave practice which to me indicates something is probably not right. Given their depth at the guard position, I just think they opt to sit him and let him rest it over the weekend while the NBA Cup is finishing up. In games without Giddey, White has a much more prominent ball handling role which will boost his assist upside tremendously. The Hornets are just not a good team defensively so he shouldn’t have any issues. While he is quite boom or bust, that keeps his ownership down and if you can catch him at a decent number you are getting good leverage on the field and without Giddey there is a decent chance he has one of those boom games. He correlates with our other guard play in Micic so it just makes a lot of sense to go with White tonight as a core play. If Giddey does play, I would go to the guys below instead. The price is just a touch too high in that event.
Honorable Mentions:
Brandon Miller ($9,000)
Donovan Mitchell ($8,900)
Desmond Bane ($6,900)
Norman Powell ($6,300)
Andrew Nembhard ($4,300)
SF: Justin Champagnie ($4,500)
With all of the injuries the Wizards are facing, Champagnie has been thrust into the starting lineup, is playing big minutes and making the most of it. His last two starts he has 34 and 43 DK points which is a massive value at this price tag. He should start again tonight and if that is the case I don’t care about the matchup. You have to take him for the price tag and implied role. He will play 30+ minutes and allows you to spend up elsewhere. SF is typically a position that is tough to get good value at, so take this opportunity to get a great value piece in Champagnie. Even against Cleveland, he should be able to return value just on usage and the price tag.
Honorable Mentions:
Zach Lavine ($7,800)
Michael Porter Jr. ($7,100)
Rui Hachimura ($5,500)
Bilal Coulibaly ($5,200)
Jaden McDaniels ($4,000)
PF: Aaron Gordon ($5,500)
In what world should Gordon be this price? He is questionable for tonight, but if he plays I am going to him full stop. He is a consistent 30+ DK point scorer when out there and playing his normal run. I think the issue is between him being banged up, Jokic going nuclear every night and a good amount of blowouts, they just haven’t been playing him a ton. Any game that is close he is getting his normal 33-35 minutes and scoring at around a 1 FPPM clip. By no means is this a good matchup against the Clippers who actually have the best PF DvP in the league. If that scares you off, then just go to the guys below. However, this is more a pricing thing and just taking a macro approach by saying “if X player is below this price point, I am playing him 100% of the time”. That is where I am at with Gordon. He is a much better player than the price tag leads on and is typically a mid to high $6,000 player. Take advantage of that tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Evan Mobley ($7,800)
Santi Aldama ($5,600)
Naz Reid ($4,600)
Brandon Clarke ($4,300)
Amir Coffey ($4,000)
C: Jonas Valanciunas ($5,500)
Another macro strategy we get to deploy tonight: If Jo Val starts, I play him unless the price tag is over $6,000. They just have too many injuries to not go to a Poole/Carrington/Bilal/Champagnie/JoVal starting lineup. IF Sarr ends up starting then just scrap everything I am about to say and don’t play him. They played Cleveland 10 days ago and he got the start so I don’t expect this to change. He played just 19 minutes and put up 31 DK points. Imagine what he can do with just mid 20s minutes which is what he has gotten the last two games and scored 43 and 51 DK points respectively. I know Cleveland is fairly good in the paint, but with the way the Wizards operate, he is still going to grab plenty of boards and they will look to him to open up outside scoring early. That is just about the only way they stand a chance tonight. He could always flop, but I am sticking to my guns on playing JoVal if he is starting.
Honorable Mentions:
Nikola Jokic ($12,500)
Anthony Davis ($11,000)
Jarrett Allen ($6,800)
Nic Claxton ($5,900)
Nick Richards ($5,800)
