NBA - April 5th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Jordan Goodwin ($4,600)
I can’t wait to see how many people chase the Flynn 50 burger game and might overlook Goodwin. I do think with all of Memphis out, there will be a LOT that go with both, but Goodwin is my favorite. I think he has been more consistent and Flynn just caught lightning in a bottle last game. Goodwin has 27, 39 and 40 DK points in his last 3 all off of the bench. The expectation for tonight will be that he starts and gets even more minutes. I just don’t see a path to him not with JJJ, Bane, Kennard, Aldama and Konchar all expected to be out. He is instant salary relief that opens up the more expensive options that give you the real ceiling. I think to cap it off he plays Detroit who is bottom 10 in defensive efficiency and 6th in pace this season.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Luka Doncic ($12,800) and CJ McCollum ($8,100)
Mid: Scoot Henderson ($7,100) or Jordan Poole ($7,400)
Cheap: Malachi Flynn ($4,500) or Scottie Pippen Jr. ($5,300)
SG: Josh Giddey ($7,500)
I think enough people will be scared away from Giddey after two very underwhelming performances without SGA and Jalen Williams. Those games were against Philly and Boston which can be tough defensively at times. Well, tonight he gets the Pacers which is as good of a matchup as it gets. They are 2nd in pace and have the 7th worst defensive rating this season. They are much worse against guards which should put Giddey in the prime position to have a ceiling performance tonight. I think with all of the value, the mid range will get overlooked a bit tonight and who wants to go to a guy that looks overpriced on paper after back to back poor games? Prior to those two, he had 43+ DK points in 5 straight with a ceiling of 61 DK points. That can’t get overlooked and in this specific matchup he grades out as a very strong play tonight.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Kyrie Irving ($9,000)
Mid: Donte DiVincenzo ($7,200) or Dalano Banton ($6,900)
Cheap: Cason Wallace ($4,400), Marcus Sasser ($5,100) or Cole Anthony ($4,700)
SF: Jake LaRavia ($4,500)
When there are 6-7 options projecting for over 6x value tonight at SF, it gets a bit tricky trying to figure out which is going to be the best. I will just side with the DFS Hero data on who sits as the #1 value at the position. That is LaRavia who, as we talked about with Goodwin, is in a spot to get massive usage. Literally every starter is out so he and many others are going to have to get 30+ minutes of run. The usage breakdown is going to be tough to predict, but LaRavia might offer the most when it comes to balancing scoring and picking up the peripherals. The matchup against Detroit is about as easy as it gets and someone has to be on the end of the production. I see no reason LaRavia can’t be that guy who is still underpriced for the ceiling he could provide tonight.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Pascal Siakam ($8,200) or Jayson Tatum ($9,700)
Mid: Josh Hart ($7,400) or GG Jackson ($6,000)
Cheap: Aaron Wiggins ($4,500) or Klay Thompson ($5,700)
PF: Jabari Walker ($5,500)
New day, same rotation for Portland. With all of the forwards out for Portland, Walker has been able to play 40+ minutes in each of the last two games and scored 38 and 49 DK points in those contests. His price just hasn’t jumped enough to warrant fading him. For me, the biggest thing is I just don’t see a path to his ownership getting to high. There are atleast 4 Grizzlies at PF all that warrant attention, Giannis as a spend up who is on a two game skid facing a horrible Raptors team and if he is out Portis will be a massive value. I just think there are plenty of options and Walker might be the odd man out. The kicker is Portland plays Washington which is the best matchup on any given slate. They are 1st in pace and have the 3rd worst defensive efficiency this season. Don’t overlook Walker tonight. He is still priced affordably and has the ceiling to be the slate breaking value piece you need.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000) or Zion Williamson ($8,800)
Mid: Draymond Green ($6,400)
Cheap: Lamar Stevens ($3,900) or Maozinha Pereira ($3,100)
C: DeAndre Ayton ($8,000)
If you are wishy-washy about Walker, then I think a sure fire play is to just go to Ayton. We all know his skillset warrants massive usage when Grant, Brogdon, Sharpe and Simons are all out. The last two games he has scored 47 and 40 DK points with the team only scoring 89 and 103 points respectively. If the Blazers can find a way to elevate that scoring total, which shouldn’t be hard at all against Washington, then I truly believe Ayton can push for 50+ DK points. I think his floor is just too strong right now and I would be extremely surprised if this was the matchup he falls apart in.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Victor Wembanyama ($11,000)
Mid: Chet Holmgren ($7,300) or Jalen Duren ($7,000)
Cheap: Trey Jemison ($3,200) or Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,300)
