NBA - April 16th Starting Five
The NBA Playoffs are finally here and we have a 2 game slate for the play-in games tonight. I am so glad we are done with the wacky rotations from garbage teams and can strictly focus on easier rotations and tighter minutes for the starting players. There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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** Play all of the Kings you would like. I didn’t include them in my “Starting Five” because legit it would have been Fox, Ellis, Lebron, Keegan, Sabonis and that just feels wrong to do. You can also go Barnes but his usage rate scares me big time when we get to playoff basketball.
PG: CJ McCollum ($7,700)
I want to start off by atleast acknowledging the fact that Kings are way underpriced for some reason and will be mega chalk tonight. I could honestly make an argument for taking their entire starting 5 as my favorite PG/SG/SF/PF/C just because they all grade out so well. I am not saying I don’t like them because I do, but I am going to try to give my favorite plays from the other 3 teams and if you want to fill out the rest of your roster with Kings by all means go for it. One guy I think is also a touch underpriced is CJ McCollum. I get Ingram is likely to be more involved, but he has 41+ DK points in 8 of the last 9 games and the starters are going to get insane run this game for sure. I could see him playing 40+ minutes tonight in an attempt to get the 7th seed locked in and a little break before the actual playoffs start. This is a pace up spot for the Pels against the Lakers who were 4th in pace this season. My only real fear is that neither team is going to want play Denver in the 1st round given they actually finished as the 2 seed behind OKC. Risking a loss today to avoid that and making the next game win and get in/lose and you are out is just not ideal though even for a chance at a “better matchup”. With Ingram and Zion having other issues to deal with on the defensive end, they might default to CJ more often which only boosts his ceiling. This feels like a great spot to run him back out at lower ownership.
Other PGs in Play:
High: De’Aaron Fox ($8,600) or Steph Curry ($8,700)
Mid: D’Angelo Russell ($6,900) or Brandon Ingram ($7,300)
Cheap: Chris Paul ($5,200) or Keon Ellis ($4,500)
SG: Klay Thompson ($6,200)
Klay at this price feels like an absolute steal. He finished the season very well with 34+ DK points in 5 of the last 6 games. This is truly a win or go home game that Kerr and Co. are going to game plan correctly for which means getting Klay involved will be a must. He is actually carry some of the load with the peripherals lately which boosts his floor. The pace is strong for both teams tonight so they will be running and gunning for sure. That fits right in with the environment Klay thrives in. He has the 2nd highest optimal rate for SG’s just behind Keon Ellis which gives me a lot of confidence in him tonight. While the Kings are young, hungry and eager to breakthrough, I think the Warriors get the best of them tonight just on playoff experience alone. These starters are going to play as much as they can handle so expect Klay to be out there a ton, taking tons of shots and has the easiest defensive matchup to deal with in Ellis. That is a perfect scenario for him and the projections back that up.
Other SGs in Play:
High: N/A
Mid: Austin Reaves ($6,700) or Trey Murphy ($6,000)
Cheap: Dyson Daniels ($4,100) or Moses Moody ($3,900)
SF: Lebron James ($9,400)
It is hard to overlook that Lebron just played the Pels in the final game of the season and dropped 83 DK points in a massive winning effort. He has 57+ DK points in 3 straight games and now AD is a little banged up. He is going to be asked to carry the load and is not scared of playing Denver in the 1st round. This team needs the couple extra days off and I think James puts the team on his back and gets them there. The individual defense of Herb Jones or Trey Murphy is not going to change that. He is projected as the highest owned SF on the slate and of the big 3 in pricing, he has the 2nd highest optimal rate with Sabonis leading the pack. I think that is relevant because the C position has a couple extra options and value plays where as the SF position, in my opinion, doesn’t. That makes me really think Lebron is the move tonight and we just hope he can outpace the other studs.
Other SFs in Play:
High: N/A
Mid: N/A
Cheap: Andrew Wiggins ($5,500) or Harrison Barnes ($4,300)
PF: Draymond Green ($6,200)
He might not project the best, but when the playoffs role around we all know Green is going to show up to play. We just have to pray he doesn’t get ejected and if that doesn’t happen we are all good. Again, this is a win or go home scenario which should have all of GS locked in and the starters playing heavy minutes. While Draymond doesn’t shoot as much, his involvement every other facet of the game is what has his floor so high. He has 36 and 41 DK points in the last two where they really needed wins and the final game they couldn’t really move so he sat. Once again, this is a strong pace environment and the last two times these teams met it ended with score totals of 247 and 267. I think we could see something close to that, but with increased defensive efforts it can’t be expected to hit that ceiling. Regardless, there will be plenty of opportunities for Draymond to get his hands on the ball, rack up peripherals and hopefully the points come along with it.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Anthony Davis ($9,700) or Zion Williamson ($8,100)
Mid: N/A
Cheap: Keegan Murray ($5,500)
C: Larry Nance ($4,200)
I think a line has kind of been drawn when Jo Val gets a whopping 7 minutes of run last game in a competitive effort and Nance gets 31… They clearly are moving away from the bigger lineup and going to more small ball with Nance at the 5. He was able to get 28 DK points in the losing effort, but now we have the same matchup and game environment tonight so why won’t Nance get similar run? Jo Val might still start and I don’t think that should deter you from getting away from Nance, but playoff basketball really doesn’t have much value because the bench options don’t get as much run and the low usage guys that start get even lower usage. It is just how thing operate and if Nance is going to get close to 30 minutes of run and decent usage at a low price then I am all in. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 12% ownership which seems low when the only real value we have is from SAC. Use Nance as a good leverage piece tonight to get different from all the Kings’ chalk we are going to get.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Domantas Sabonis ($9,600)
Mid: N/A
Cheap: Trayce Jackson-Davis ($5,400) or Trey Lyles ($3,800)
