NBA - April 4th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Luka Doncic ($12,500)
The last time Doncic played Atlanta he hit the milestone 100 DK point mark with 73 actual points and somehow a non triple-double effort. Tonight, they will be without Trae Young which just makes things even easier because he won’t have to try on defense. This is my “don’t get cute” play because April has been terrible to me when it comes to spending up. Giannis yesterday, AD the day before and Cam Thomas on April 1st. All busted me out. We are not going to start out 4/4 on flops. This game is pace up with the Hawks being 7th in pace and Mavs 4th in pace this season. It just feels like he has a 50-60 DK point floor which is tough to beat on any given night. With this being a smaller slate, raw points are certainly going to be important and he has the highest ceiling of anyone on the slate. Just play Doncic and find the value to make it work. It is that simple.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Jalen Brunson ($9,100)
Mid: Fred VanVleet ($7,800)
Cheap: Russell Westbrook ($4,800)
SG: Cam Whitmore ($4,100)
An easy way to make Doncic work is to play him with someone cheap like Whitmore. He is getting 22-26 minutes/game right now and has shown the ability to get 25+ DK points to go along with it. He has hit that mark in 4 of the last 8 games. They face the Warriors who are 8th in pace this season so it is a pace up game for the Rockets and Whitmore. DFS Hero is projecting him for north of 30% ownership which feels very high, but on a 5 game slate that will happen with very little value showing up. I just think this is more about what Whitmore opens up compared to his actual production. If he can score you 20+ DK points that is more than enough because it helps unlock the $10,000+ range. The matchup is solid, the price is low and he has been playing fairly well so why not roll him out.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Kyrie Irving ($8,700)
Mid: Miles McBride ($5,900)
Cheap: Norman Powell ($5,000)
SF: Donte DiVincenzo ($6,800)
I honestly am not a huge fan of the SF position tonight. DiVincenzo is the only one that really stands out to me for a few reasons. The things I look for are is it a pace up spot and does the opposing team sit bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. You can check both of those boxes for DiVincenzo tonight. The Knicks are in a pace up spot against the Kings who are bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. Then I want to look at recent form which DiVincenzo has. 35+ DK points in 5 of the last 6 games with a ceiling of 58 DK points are strong marks to hit and that is where Donte is at right now. With no OG or Randle, he is playing big minutes and I don’t think the Kings have anyone to defend him. Brunson will be dealing with Fox most of the game which might open up DiVincenzo to get a touch more usage. He is in a clear ceiling spot and playing up to that ceiling at the moment. He feels like a great play tonight even at the 31% ownership projection DFS Hero is giving him.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Paul George ($8,400)
Mid: Josh Hart ($7,300)
Cheap: Andrew Wiggins ($5,800) and Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,000)
PF: PJ Washington ($5,300)
With Lively expected to be out, Washington is going to have to play some minutes at the C position and will get his normal run at PF. I would be shocked if that means he plays fewer than 32 minutes. He is cheap and playing well with 25+ DK points in 5 straight games and is coming off of a 36 minute, 35 DK point performance (Lively was out in that game as well). They play Atlanta who also tends to play small at times. That fits Washington’s game even more. I don’t usually touch on this, but his history against Atlanta is incredible with 30+ DK points in 7 of the last 8 games against them including 35+ DK points in each of the last 3 games. I really like him in this spot and the ownership isn’t really there at the moment (16% but I expect that to rise). Lock and load on Washington tonight.
Other PFs in Play:
High: N/A
Mid: Jalen Johnson ($6,900) or Aaron Gordon ($6,000)
Cheap: Trey Lyles ($3,600) or De’Andre Hunter ($5,600)
C: Clint Capela ($6,500)
Everyone is going to flock to Gafford/Zubac (and for good reason) or spend up for Sabonis/Jokic which really leaves everyone else at C to have lower ownership. I am seeing Capela’s ownership projection at like 5-6% in some spots which feels incredibly low. He has been a double double machine as of late with Okongwu out. He has 37+ DK points in 5 of the last 6 games which is quietly being overlooked. This matchup against Dallas is pace up for the Hawks (Dallas is 4th in pace this season). The individual matchup against Gafford will always be a strong one because everywhere he goes, that team is bottom 5 in C defense. I just think Capela is getting overlooked tonight when in reality his ceiling and floor are much better than that of Gafford or Zubac who will each be 20% owned or higher. Leverage the C position tonight with Capela and hope he can continue the double double streak.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Nikola Jokic ($11,900) or Domantas Sabonis ($10,200)
Mid: Draymond Green ($6,400) or Jabari Smith ($6,300)
Cheap: Daniel Gafford ($5,700) or Ivica Zubac ($5,800)
