NBA - April 3rd Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Tre Mann ($5,500)
This feels like a trap but if it is one I am falling straight into it. Micic is projected to be out which means Mann will assume more of a facilitator role which was what he was doing a couple of weeks ago prior to Micic’s breakout. Honestly as of late his issue hasn’t been the peripherals. He just hasn’t been able to get up enough shots/points to get him there. Against Portland tonight I see no reason he can’t do that. They are decimated at the guard position with injuries galore. I think Mann can and will take advantage of that with a strong showing tonight. Honestly if he can just stay healthy I will be happy. The last few days have just been guys getting hurt for me or on the wrong end of a massive blowout.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Dejounte Murray ($9,900)
Mid: Jordan Poole ($7,100)
Cheap: Mike Conley ($5,500) or Jared Butler ($4,000)
SG: Dalano Banton ($6,900)
Might as well run Mann back with Banton who is on fire lately. He has 51+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 games even off of the bench. He has to play big minutes with all of the injuries the Blazers have, so expect 30-35 minutes from him. The Hornets might be slow paced, but the have the 2nd worst defensive efficiency this season and that will only get worse with Micic out. I know his ownership will end up being high, but he is playing at an elite level right now and he has such an easy defensive matchup to go up against. The ceiling vs. price is just too good to pass up.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Cade Cunningham ($8,600) or Anthony Edwards ($9,400)
Mid: Brandon Miller ($6,800)
Cheap: Luke Kennard ($5,200) or Rayan Rupert ($4,000)
SF: Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,900)
Bogdan is just on fire right now with 35+ DK points in 5 straight games with a 61 DK point ceiling in there. He gets to face the Pistons tonight who are bottom 5 in defensive efficiency and top 10 in pace this season. Even with Jalen Johnson back, he was able to produce to the tune of 39 DK points in 35 minutes with just 7 shots. There is no way that happens again. The peripherals are there for him and the shots will regress back into the mid teens. I see no reason to believe he can’t elevate what he did last game and push for another ceiling performance. This matchup is set up for him, and the rest of the Hawks, to have success in.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Lebron James ($10,200) or Miles Bridges ($8,100)
Mid: Deni Avdija ($7,800)
Cheap: Jaden McDaniels ($4,600) or Kris Murray ($4,600)
PF: Jabari Walker ($4,900)
I hate going back to this game with how low the implied game total is, but the players just project so well with how rotations shake out. Walker played 40 minutes last game and scored 38 DK points. The rotation is expected to remain the same with all of Brogdon, Sharpe, Grant, Kamara and Thybulle all out. This matchup against Charlotte is perfect with their 2nd worst defensive efficiency in the NBA this season. If they can’t be bothered defensively and Walker is going to be on the court 80% of the game, there is a strong chance he has another ceiling game. He is going to play in a close game or blowout so the minutes are secure and his price is just too low for the ceiling he offers. Fire up Walker again tonight.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800)
Mid: Naz Reid ($6,700)
Cheap: Davis Bertans ($3,600) or Grant Williams ($5,100)
C: Tristan Vukcevic ($3,000)
Both of Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley are expected to be out tonight vs. the Lakers. Last game against Milwaukee where the Wizards somehow won, it was much due to Serbian Vukcevic playing fantastic basketball. He played 31 minutes and scored 29 DK points which is quite impressive considering his career high in minutes so far was a whopping 13 minutes. They just don’t have any bigs to contend with the likes of AD or Jaxson Hayes. I think Vuk at the minimum salary has to play considerable minutes and if he offers 25+ DK points, you almost have to lock him in. It isn’t about what he scores it is about the fact that he unlocks getting to Giannis so easily who has the highest ceiling on the slate. Take the value in Vuk tonight and see what it opens up for you.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Anthony Davis ($10,500)
Mid: DeAndre Ayton ($7,600)
Cheap: Brandon Clarke ($4,200) or Anthony Gill ($3,400)
