NBA - April 2nd Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Patrick Beverley ($4,500)
While I feel this could be a massive trap play, given Beverley in his last game started, got 36 minutes and 36 DK points, I am going to say he will do just fine. Tonight they are going to be missing Lillard again so those minutes should be secure and somewhere in the 30s range. While he might not have the same FPPM output, the expectation any time you play the Wizards is going to be efficient. They run at the fastest pace in the league and have the 3rd worst defensive efficiency this season. Not to mention they will be without Kuzma. I think the Bucks coast here and spread the wealth around amongst everyone, including Bev. He just feels a touch too cheap given the role, the matchup and what he was able to do in that same role last game.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Tyrese Maxey ($8,600)
Mid: D’Angelo Russell ($7,000)
Cheap: Kris Dunn ($4,400) or Malaki Branham ($4,100)
SG: Jordan Poole ($6,800)
This is another one that could come back to bite us because it seems every time he is the head honcho and Kuzma is out, he completely fails. However, last game with him out for the same reasons he is out tonight, Poole put up 41 DK points and that was against a much tougher Heat team. Tonight they play the Bucks who are not good defensively without guards and that is even considering Lillard is out and old man Pat Bev is going to take his place. We all know what Poole can do when he gets hot and if the Wizards stand a chance it will have to be through him. Deni and others might also see a bump in usage, but their individual matchups aren’t as strong. Look for Poole to start chucking early and if he is feeling it, he will likely be a big value.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Anthony Edwards ($9,400)
Mid: Josh Giddey ($6,600) or Austin Reaves ($7,300)
Cheap: Julian Champagne ($4,200)
SF: Cedi Osman ($3,900)
I don’t care about the ownership projection being north of 50%, Osman is almost a must play in my eyes. With Jeremy Sochan and Keldon Johnson out, this team is extremely thin at the SF position. Osman filled the role in the starting lineup and amassed 36 minutes of action. That is tough to come by at this price point. He was able to put up 25 DK points as well which is a strong showing for sure. He faces the Denver tonight which ultimately could be a blowout, but I still think the minutes will have to be there. They are just too thin at the position. Unless something else opens up (which is very possible given how many Q tags there are tonight), I think Osman is the go to punt value you will need tonight.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Lebron James ($9,800)
Mid: Deni Avdija ($7,500) or Khris Middleton ($7,100)
Cheap: Corey Kispert ($5,600)
PF: Anthony Davis ($10,400)
Lebron has gotten all of the attention over the last few games, but I think it is time Davis takes it back. He has been playing incredible in his own right lately with 47+ DK points in 6 straight with 4 of those being over 56 DK points. The Lakers get to play the Raptors tonight in what should be an easy matchup for everyone. They are bottom 6 in defensive efficiency much due to how many injuries they have had and still have. The Raps just don’t have anyone to defend him. Kelly Olynyk doesn’t stand a chance. Davis is in a ceiling spot and with all the attention on Lebron should be able to capitalize on that. Lock and load on the Brow tonight.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500)
Mid: Evan Mobley ($6,900) or Jalen Williams ($7,300)
Cheap: Jordan Nwora ($4,200) or Taylor Hendricks ($4,800)
C: Walker Kessler ($4,700)
John Collins is out and any time that happens Kessler is bound to start. With how big the Cavs play, he is going to have to play a ton tonight or they will get destroyed in the paint. Collins missed last game as well, Kessler started and scored 29 DK points in 32 minutes. I expect something similar tonight even if the matchup is a bit tough. His ownership projection is quite high at almost 35%, but the optimal rate is just as high. I think he, and a few others, just let you fill out your roster with guys that have 50+ DK point upside which is what you need. There are plenty of other value options and C options, so if the matchup scares you for Kessler, just go to the guys below.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Nikola Jokic ($12,000)
Mid: Rudy Gobert ($7,600) or Naz Reid ($6,800)
Cheap: Sandro Mamukelashvili ($3,600)
