NBA - April 26th Starting Five
The NBA Playoffs are finally here and we have a some great matchups and storylines to follow tonight. I am so glad we are done with the wacky rotations from garbage teams and can strictly focus on easier rotations and tighter minutes for the starting players. There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Bradley Beal ($6,400)
I think you have to think of this from a different perspective because Beal really hasn’t been that good this series. I think going back home to PHX will help them a lot, but from a defensive perspective Booker and Durant are still going to get the bulk of the attention. McDaniels has Durant on lockdown and Conley can still contain Booker. That should leave Beal open to be more productive. The price is still relatively cheap given his ceiling can be a 50 DK point player. Even in the last game of the season he put up 59 DK points vs. Minnesota so why can’t he find that in this series? I know they are playing much more difficult defense, but even 80% of that output makes Beal a borderline optimal play. He just needs to find his shot and he should be just fine. They have to win tonight and it might have to be on the back of Beal with Durant and Booker in much tougher spots.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Luka Doncic ($11,700) or Tyrese Haliburton ($8,600)
Mid: N/A
Cheap: Mike Conley ($5,500) or Patrick Beverley ($4,700)
SG: Nickeil Walker-Alexander ($4,100)
Its pretty crazy to me that this guy’s price is still this low after playing 30 minutes in both the first two games, hit 5x value in each with a ceiling of 35 DK points and is still only expected to be from 12-15% owned. The value in the playoffs actually producing has been steadily getting priced up to the mid $4,000 range or higher, except for NWA. Hopefully this isn’t just a trap and he continues to get the minutes, but I really like what he is giving the Wolves in this series. He is a pest on defense, hitting his shots and doing exactly what they are asking from him. Maybe the field will just flock to McDaniels and forget about NWA or not want to go two Wolves punts, but I think Walker-Alexander could be the one to shine tonight like in Game 1.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Kyrie Irving ($8,400) or Devin Booker ($8,100)
Mid: N/A
Cheap: Aaron Nesmith ($5,100) or Andrew Nembhard ($4,300)
SF: Pascal Siakam ($8,300)
The writing is on the wall and I think we just have to accept it. Haliburton is no longer the #1 option, it’s Siakam. The first two games from him have been incredible with 62.75 DK points in both games which at this price or any price is great. I know the Bucks are going to have to change things to possibly slow him down, but do they really need to? The series is 1-1 and they were able to win Game 1 by 15 even with Siakam dropping 36 points. I am going to keep riding him until the price jumps up to a respectable point because he has arguably been the most impressive player overall these playoffs.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Anthony Edwards ($9,000)
Mid: Khris Middleton ($7,400)
Cheap: Grayson Allen ($5,000)
PF: Obi Toppin ($3,400)
One of the more shocking things from Game 2 was the fact that the Pacers opted to go to Toppin as the only backup C option which led to him getting 21 minutes and they won pretty handily. If that is going to be telling of what they do tonight, his price is just far too cheap. He is a strong PPM guy and should see around 20 minutes of run. He will also get some PF run as well which only helps boost the minutes he should get. If you want to get up to one of the big dogs, you will need to have solid value and I think Toppin can do that for you.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Kevin Durant ($8,200)
Mid: Karl-Anthony Towns ($7,100) or Bobby Portis ($6,900)
Cheap: PJ Washington ($5,600) or Maxi Kleber ($3,500)
C: Ivica Zubac ($6,000)
There are a ton of C options that you can play for sure (see below) that will definitely be in a position to score well. Most of them will get big ownership and for good reason. I think the odd man out will likely be Zubac when in reality he has a pretty similar ceiling compared to the guys above him. He has 45 and 30 DK points in this series and was in serious foul trouble last game which led to him losing a rotation early. They very well could give him 38 minutes tonight because they have no faith in the backup Cs to produce in any way. He could be the leverage play you need to jump part of the field. I also really like the other C options as well, but they come with much higher ownership projections
Other Cs in Play:
High: Rudy Gobert ($7,200)
Mid: Myles Tuner ($6,500)
Cheap: Derek Lively ($4,300)
