NBA - April 25th Starting Five
The NBA Playoffs are finally here and we have a some great matchups and storylines to follow tonight. I am so glad we are done with the wacky rotations from garbage teams and can strictly focus on easier rotations and tighter minutes for the starting players. There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Tyrese Maxey ($7,900)
Let’s just go with the chalk PG option in Maxey who is really showing up through the first 2 games. He has 45 and 63 DK points in two gut wrenching defeats to the Knicks, but now gets to head back to Philly in hopes of making this a series and not a sweep. He is just far too cheap for the current production and expectation. He had his 2nd highest AST+REB game of the season in Game 2 with 9 rebounds and 10 assists. Pair that with 20+ shots and that is a recipe to break any slate. I don’t think he will put up peripherals like that again, but the shooting will always be there and in Game 1 with only 6 peripherals he was able to hit value. I see no reason he can’t do that here in a must win spot.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Jamal Murray ($8,400)
Mid: D’Angelo Russell ($6,400)
Cheap: Jalen Suggs ($5,300)
SG: Kyle Lowry ($4,700)
Honestly the SG position is disgusting tonight and it is tough to get a read on any of these guys (outside of Mitchell). Lowry is just about the only one that has showed up to hit value in both Game 1 and 2 so why not give him a shot again. He is cheap, playing 30+ minutes and doing enough with the peripherals to get to atleast 25 DK points. With these playoff slates having very little value in general, having safety nets like Lowry really help out and he lets you build out the rest of your roster with better players that have the ceilings. Hopefully he doesn’t pull a Pat Bev on us and go straight back to being a complete 0% usage guy.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Donovan Mitchell ($8,600)
Mid: Donte DiVincenzo ($6,400)
Cheap: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,900) or Miles McBride ($4,300)
SF: Franz Wagner ($6,700)
I am a big fan of Wagner in the mid range because he isn’t as reliant on shooting like some of the other SFs around him. He is able to do it in many different ways, but also has the ceiling if he gets enough shots up. This is a must win game, at home for Orlando who really hasn’t been able to find their shooting form lately. I know the Cavs are a bad matchup, but if there is one spot on the court to attack it would be at the SF position. He has 32 and 40 DK points thru 2 games which is pretty solid and that feels like floor outcomes for him in general. With Banchero in a difficult matchup against Evan Mobley, I think Franz takes over as the #1 option and can really help set a strong floor for your DFS lineups tonight.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Lebron James ($9,500)
Mid: Josh Hart ($7,300)
Cheap: Tobias Harris ($5,800) or Max Strus ($5,400)
PF: Michael Porter Jr. ($6,300)
I am going to continue to ride the hot hand in Porter Jr. who has shot over 50% from the field through 2 games and also been a menace on the boards with 9 and 7 rebounds respectively. That has elevated him to 36 and 41 DK points in this series so far which is really strong considering the price. If you think he can continue to to keep shooting like this, like myself, then how can you really fade him? He is too cheap for the production he is currently putting up and the matchup against the Lakers is really suited for all of Denver. The Lakers were 4th in pace this season with Denver sitting bottom 5, so he will get plenty of opportunities as long as he stays out of foul trouble.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Paolo Banchero ($8,000)
Mid: Evan Mobley ($7,000) or Aaron Gordon ($6,100)
Cheap: Jonathan Isaac ($4,800) or OG Anunoby ($5,100)
C: Nikola Jokic ($11,500)
I think if you can get up to him you try to do it. He is just a class above everyone else right now and fully deserves his 3rd MVP. Against AD, he has 63 and 75 DK points so far. That is just incredible considering how good he is defensively. I just don’t think there is a way to fully stop him. I have always said that on small slate, you sometimes just have to go get the raw points and find a way to piece value around it which is exactly what Jokic embodies. He feels like a lock for 60+ DK points. Why not fill him in and just try to work everything else in around him? There will almost always be 2-3 value pieces that get 20+ DK points so if you can get those right then you already have a leg up on the field. Try to fit him in and if you can’t then try again.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Joel Embiid ($10,400) or Anthony Davis ($9,800)
Mid: Jarrett Allen ($7,400)
Cheap: Isaiah Hartenstein ($5,300) or Moritz Wagner ($3,600)
