NBA - April 19th Starting Five
The NBA Playoffs are finally here and we have a some great matchups and storylines to follow tonight. I am so glad we are done with the wacky rotations from garbage teams and can strictly focus on easier rotations and tighter minutes for the starting players. There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Keon Ellis ($5,000)
I still think this is a really good price for Ellis who is being asked to play big minutes and actually seems to have a role. Will he regress from the 39 and 30 DK points he has scored in the last two games? Most likely yes. However, you won’t find too many guys at this price point that are actually guarenteed 30+ minutes and if you do they are essentially zero or very low usage. He is almost a lock for somewhere between 5-10 shots, 5-6 peripherals and the steals and blocks from how hard he plays on defense will probably keep coming. While there are a few spend up G options that definitely have him beat from a raw points projection, Ellis just looks hungry and wants to be a big factor. He is doing a lot of the dirty work for this team right now which lets Fox, Sabonis and Murray get their shine on offense. Hopefully this isn’t the game he really comes back to Earth, but I am going to ride the hot hand while I can with Ellis.
Other PGs in Play:
High: CJ McCollum ($8,100) or De’Aaron Fox ($8,800)
Mid: Coby White ($7,500)
Cheap: Jose Alvarado ($4,200) or Delon Wright ($3,800)
SG: Tyler Herro ($7,900)
With Butler out and this being a must win game, I just don’t see a path to them winning and Herro not doing everything he can. He got a whopping 27 shots last game and was pretty inefficient with them. If there is a path to him getting the same volume, having a better efficiency and elevated the peripherals then he could be the necessary piece tonight as a spend up. There is enough value to get Herro and a couple other spend ups so with his usage rate, the matchup against Chicago doesn’t really matter. While the other game has a better environment pace wise, there are definitely options from this Heat/Bulls game that stand out as well, including Herro.
Other SGs in Play:
High: N/A
Mid: Ayo Dosunmu ($6,100) or Brandon Ingram ($7,700)
Cheap: Dyson Daniels ($4,100)
SF: Trey Murphy ($6,300)
I am a Trey Murphy-stan in general so Zion being out and Murphy being thrust back into the starting lineup is a big thing for me. He hasn’t started the last couple of games, but prior to that he had been starting and had 41, 41 and 52 DK points in those final 3 starts. Even prior to that, he was putting up consistently over 30 DK points and that was with Zion playing. I think swapping him for Ingram doesn’t change a ton, but Ingram is still banged up and CJ is a guy you can really gameplan out (see last game). I could see a lot of the secondary players for the Pels doing very well tonight just because they will have to. The odds are stacked against them, but someone has to step up and we have seen Murphy do that in the past. The final kicker for me is he played the final 17 minutes of the last play-in game against the Lakers. That is definitely foreshadowing him playing massive minutes tonight in a win or go home environment.
Other SFs in Play:
High: DeMar DeRozan ($8,400)
Mid: N/A
Cheap: Herbert Jones ($5,500) or Jaime Jacquez ($5,200)
PF: DeMar DeRozan ($8,400)
Win or go home scenario where DeRozan won’t have to deal with Butler now… sign me up. He has been crazy efficient to end the season with 42+ DK points in 8 of the last 9 games and is coming off of a 47 DK point effort last game. I just think all around he gets enough minutes and usage that the floor is so high. There aren’t many guys on this slate that I am comfortable saying should 100% go over atleast 38 DK points. I could see avenues for a lot of the studs underperforming, but I can’t find one for DeMar. Again, no Butler so he is probably getting individual defense from the rotation of Jovic, Highsmith, Caleb Martin or Jaime. That isn’t going to be too difficult for him. With the price staying stagnant, I am going to be using DeRozan in quite a bit of my lineups even if his ownership is going to be through the roof.
Other PFs in Play:
High: N/A
Mid: N/A
Cheap: Keegan Murray ($5,900), Haywood Highsmith ($4,600) or Harrison Barnes ($4,500)
C: Larry Nance ($4,800)
I am still going to ride the Nance train here and am especially happy to see Jo Val is the one that is getting a bigger ownership projection and has a higher point projection. People will look back at the game they played 4/11 against the Kings where Valanciunas played 33 minutes and scored 33 DK points. That game was one where Nance was out… I just don’t think they like giving him big minutes anymore and that is benefitting Nance in a big way. He has 29 DK points in 3 of the last 4 games and the price point is still relatively cheap for the ceiling he can provide. This is a scary play, so if you want to go to one of the other C’s on this slate that is definitely doable. I just think the matchup is advantageous for him in a pace up spot where he won’t be the attention getter like he sometimes is off of the bench.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Domantas Sabonis ($9,500) or Bam Adebayo ($8,700)
Mid: Nikola Vucevic ($7,800)
Cheap: Jonas Valanciunas ($4,900) or Kevin Love ($4,000)
