NBA - April 17th Starting Five
The NBA Playoffs are finally here and we have a some great matchups and storylines to follow tonight. I am so glad we are done with the wacky rotations from garbage teams and can strictly focus on easier rotations and tighter minutes for the starting players. There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Coby White ($7,000)
Straight up this slate is far less appealing compared to last night so picking through my favorite plays is a bit tricky. Chicago, Miami and Philly are all below average pace wise with Atlanta being the only one that runs at a quick pace (5th this season). That is probably why a lot of Chicago is projecting well. The Hawks are not that good defensively and barely squeaked into the playoffs as the 10th seed. They have a lot of injuries as well, but the biggest thing is they had the league’s 4th worst defensive efficiency this season. I really hope I don’t get “CJ McCollum’d” here by White, but with how we was playing to end the season and his implied matchup tonight being pretty solid, I could see him being a really big factor tonight. If Ayo plays, I will be a little less confident, but White averaged 34 DK points/game in the final 4 games of the regular season and are now in a must win spot. Being out home always helps, so give the Bulls a solid edge here. I just think with Jalen Johnson and Okongwu both out, the Hawks don’t stand much of a chance. They ended the season on a 7 game skid and I don’t think this pace down spot against Chicago is the spot the right the ship. With White drawing a lot Trae who is still pretty bad defensively, I think he can have a really solid game tonight.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Trae Young ($9,200) or Tyrese Maxey ($8,500)
Mid: Tyler Herro ($7,500)
Cheap: Kyle Lowry ($4,500)
SG: Garrison Mathews ($3,100)
This feels absolutely disgusting and I can’t believe I am writing this. If you want to unlock Embiid tonight, there really isn’t much value to go around that will actually play decent minutes. There is one singular guy way down at the bottom though that I am pretty confident has to play 20ish minutes (if not more) and that is Garrison Mathews. To finish the season, he was playing about 20-25 minutes and now Vit Krejci is no longer in the equation. With the other injuries sustained on the roster, they really have two options: play the starters 48 minutes or run an 8 man rotation with Wes Matthews, Bruno and Mathews getting 20ish minutes a piece while the starters all play 30-35. I just don’t see a way they stand a chance if they run the starters the entire game while the Bulls rotate in fresh bodies, so that leaves Mathews to get pretty solid run. We have seen him score close to 20 DK points to close the season, so there is a small chance he actually ends up as a good value, scoring option. However, his appeal comes with the incredibly low price tag. He could score 8-10 DK points and still be of help because everyone else below $3,900 might not even touch the court. Mathews should score and it allows you to get to Embiid who has the highest ceiling on this slate by a good distance. Or if you want to go Mathews without Embiid, the other 7 positions for roster construction will be starters that all play big time minutes and get solid usage. I think it is worth atleast considering him, but if you opt to not go there I totally get it. Click on his name is no easy feat, but it could be the one that pays off the most.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Dejounte Murray ($8,800)
Mid: Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,600) or Ayo Dosunmu ($6,300)
Cheap: Alex Caruso ($5,800)
SF: DeMar DeRozan ($8,400)
I wanted to take Playoff Jimmy here, but he honestly isn’t playing that well and the matchup isn’t as strong. Look at the numbers for him to finish out the season: 53, 62, 47, 42, 43, 44, 46 DK points. He is really putting in the work to carry this team with Lavine out. Tonight is a win or go home game, in Chicago against a pretty poor Hawks team that is battling injuries and on a 7 game losing streak. This feels like too easy of a spot to just play as many Bulls as possible. It is a massive pace up game and the Hawks had the 4th worst defensive efficiency this season. Don’t overthink this and just play DeRozan tonight. They really don’t have anyone on the roster that can stop him.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Jimmy Butler ($8,700)
Mid: Tobias Harris ($6,200)
Cheap: Buddy Hield ($4,600)
PF: Caleb Martin ($4,800)
Martin has been in the starting lineup for the last 4 games and has been able to put up either hit or miss performances. He has 25+ DK points in 3 of the last 5 games with a ceiling of 32 DK points which is pretty solid. He kind of has a thing for showing up in the playoffs so it wouldn’t shock me at all to see him elevate his game for this one. This is a small pace up spot for Miami against the 76ers and the way the defensive matchups break down, I think Butler draws Tobias and Bam draws Embiid. Those are not the best matchups for either so we could see small usage bumps to the secondary guys like Martin and Herro. Honestly, the big thing with Martin for me is he feels like safe value that I can confidently say will play close to 30 minutes if not higher. That will be few and far between tonight and it opens up the rest of your roster for studs.
Other PFs in Play:
High: N/A
Mid: N/A
Cheap: Jaime Jacquez Jr. ($4,900)
C: Clint Capela ($6,800)
Do we really think the Hawks are going to trust Bruno Fernando for 20 minutes in a win or go home game? I think Capela gets every minute he can handle tonight against the Bulls. He finished the season with some spotty performances, but there were plenty of 35+ DK point games also scattered in the final 10 games. The last time he played Chicago he put up 37 DK points in 26 minutes of action. Imagine what he could do in 32-36 minutes (which he has been able to do plenty of times this season). I think a lot of the ownership will go to Vuc and Embiid which is totally warranted, but Capela could slip through the cracks. Using him as a leverage piece could be just what is necessary to take down a bit tournament tonight and I am all for it.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Joel Embiid ($11,100)
Mid: Nikola Vucevic ($7,800)
Cheap: N/A
