NFL - Week 9 Chalk and Pivot Report
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With how sharp the field is nowadays, you really have to hit at every position to have a chance in Main Slate contests. Compared to years past, almost everyone is main stacking along with a mini stack. Almost everyone is targeting high implied scoring teams and it leaves you with players getting hyper inflated ownership based on the industry talking them up. We call these players/stacks the “chalk”. Do they deserve to be high owned? In some cases yes they do. They usually have better opportunities to score. However, some players can become chalk just based on inefficient pricing. I am going to be changing things up and starting with who is going to be the chalk pieces and why. Then I will give some of my favorite pivots off of that chalk to possibly get different. Just a forewarning, if you take all of the pivots, the current DFS landscape will likely lead to you losing money. Like I said, chalk is chalk for a reason. Balance the chalk with some pivots to give yourself leverage over the field and possibly score a big win!
Chalk QBs:
Jalen Hurts ($8,000)
This might be the lousiest QB slate of all time with only a few spend up options and like 8 backup QBs all littering the $4,000 and $5,000 range. Hurts has been super consistent this season and even though he faces a tough Dallas defense, they really only play well at home. On the road they are allowing over 10 points/game more and 70 yards/game more than when at home. Hurts has plenty of stackable weapons and the value on this slate makes it easy to get to him. It also helps that his partner in crime who I will mention later is also garnering massive ownership. Lock and load with Hurts this week if you are spending up at QB.
Pivot: Lamar Jackson ($8,200)
Sam Howell ($5,800)
I literally hate this guy but after last weeks performance and the quality of QB on this slate being low he is getting a good amount of ownership. I bet you can guess the weeks I have played him and the weeks I haven’t (I played him W3 and W7 where he scored 4 and 10 DK points respectively and tanked my lineups). NE defense since Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon went down has been dreadful, allowing 25+ points in 4 of the last 5 games to opposing offenses. Howell might be a boom or bust type of guy, but with NE in the top 10 in rush yards/game allowed, I think they opt to pass more to get the job done. He is cheap, has cheap stacking options and makes it so you can get a few studs in your lineup this week.
Pivot: CJ Stroud ($6,200)
Gardner Minshew ($5,200)
Carolina’s defense is atrocious and this game could be a sneaky high scoring affair. Both offenses are healthy (except for Downs), both defenses suck and you can affordably stack this game for the most part. Minshew has shown big upside lately with a 34 DK point game just a few weeks ago. He isn’t afraid to sling and with a lot of ownership going to Taylor, this could be a decent leverage spot even with Minshew getting a little bit of ownership himself. The run back is easy with either Thielen or Hubbard. This slate is just gross when it comes to QB plays so Minshew could end up making his way to the top if this becomes a shootout.
Pivot: Bryce Young ($5,100)
Other Considerations:
Dak Prescott ($6,500)
Taylor Heinicke ($5,000)
Chalk RBs:
Alvin Kamara ($8,100)
Once again people are going to Kamara. Chicago has been better against the run lately, but they are giving up exactly what Kamara does well at a very high rate which is RB catches out of the backfield. I could see another big catch game for him in this one. His volume is just incredibly high and this doesn’t seem like the type of spot Taysom Hill will vulture again. Carr is just looking to him way too much to be ignored. Even at this steep price tag I think he is worth getting to at the high ownership as well.
Pivot: Saquon Barkley ($7,900)
Jonathan Taylor ($6,400)
At this price tag and in this matchup, Taylor could end up being the top RB play of the day. The Panthers give up the 4th most rush yards/game, most rush TDs and with Moss missing practice on Friday I am skeptical of whether or not he gets the workload that has held Taylor back as of late. If they just give him the keys to the castle this week the sky is the limit for Taylor.
Pivot: Rachaad White ($5,600)
Chuba Hubbard ($5,000)
Carolina on defense might be giving up the most rush TDs/game, but can you guess who is second? Yep that would Indy who Hubbard plays this week. He was announced as the starter this past week even though it was evident that was the direction the team wanted to go. He is dirt cheap, getting a ton of ownership and I think it will end up being worth it. He has looked decent since getting the bulk of the carries, but last week he really stunk against Houston but they have had a top 10 rush defense this season. This matchup is much better and his price is still cheap enough to allow you to get a lot of studs in.
Pivot: Brian Robinson ($5,300)
Devin Singletary ($4,300)
With Dameon Pierce out, Singletary will end up being the chalk RB of the day. He is almost at the flat min and was already seeing around 10-13 touches/game. Now he should see close to 20 and even if it is against a tough rush defense volume is volume. You won’t often find RB plays this cheap with that large of a workload. He lets you pay up at QB and avoid the stinker backup QBs starting this week and will still catch some passes as well to boost the floor. I have no issue going with him, but would probably lean Hubbard if I want a cheap RB.
Pivot: Zach Charbonnet ($4,300)
Other Considerations:
Josh Jacobs ($6,900)
Aaron Jones ($6,200)
Jerome Ford ($5,300)
Chalk WRs:
AJ Brown ($8,600)
Once again the field is opting to spend up for Brown this week with him drawing incredibly high projected ownership numbers. You just can’t ignore since Week 1 he has been the best WR not named Tyreek Hill in the league and is on a streak of 6 straight 125+ yard games which is an NFL record. Dallas is bad on the road so I expect Brown to get his due and continue this strong run of play. There really isn’t much more to say. This game could end up being a shootout and if that is the case you probably have to have Brown.
Pivot: Cooper Kupp ($8,500)
CeeDee Lamb ($8,200)
This game environment is just too good to not talk about. If people aren’t playing Brown they are taking the savings and going to Lamb. He is fresh off of a 44 DK point game, the Eagles have allowed the 7th most pass yards/game and tied for 3rd most pass TDs/game and their rush defense is legit #1 in the league. The Cowboys are going to have to throw a ton this game and Lamb will likely be the benefactor. His ceiling is incredibly high and regardless of Darius Slay being on the other side of the field. I honestly think if you can fit both Brown and Lamb you try to do it because every other game on this slate could end up being gross.
Pivot: Adam Thielen ($7,500)
Nico Collins ($5,800)
With Pierce out, a lot of people expect Stroud to just throw the majority of the game. His number one target so far seems to be Collins who has been playing a LOT better at home vs. on the road. At home he is averaging 27 DK points/game vs on the road just 8 DK points/game. They play at home this week so he will be in a comfortable environment and with TB being a lot better against the run, that just feeds even more into the passing narrative. That is what is pumping up his ownership and I think if he is going to be highly owned I would look elsewhere. He still is only playing on 70% of the snaps unlike others in this range and chasing home vs. away splits seems like a bad idea especially when Dell is back fully healthy now to take targets away. The counter to that is Robert Woods is out so I can see both sides. I will have some of him, but won’t be trying to force him in. He does grade out as a good play which can’t be ignored.
Pivot: Terry McLaurin ($5,600)
Demario Douglas ($4,000)
Sadly Kendrick Bourne who was looking like a stand out WR1 for the Pats tore his ACL last week. This team is just poverty when it comes to WR depth and Douglas is the one getting the majority of routes and snaps. Washington is terrible against the pass and allowing the 4th most pass yards/game this season. He has gotten 13 targets the last two weeks and could see that increase this week as the defacto WR1 now. I don’t think Juju is any good so ignore that nonsense. Volume on the Pats has to go to someone and it very well could be Douglas. He is super cheap and allows you to do a lot with your lineups. Even at a decently high ownership I like him this week.
Pivot: Van Jefferson ($3,600)
Other Considerations:
Mike Evans ($7,300)
Devonta Smith ($7,100)
DK Metcalf ($6,900)
Michael Pittman ($6,600)
Chris Olave ($6,300)
Jahan Dotson ($5,000)
Rasheed Shaheed ($4,500)
Brandin Cooks ($4,400)
Jamison Crowder ($3,400)
Alec Pierce ($3,300)
Noah Brown ($3,100)
Chalk TEs:
Dallas Goedert ($4,800)
Even if the price tag is a bit steep, the field isn’t really looking to spend up on either of Andrews or Hock this week based on ownership projections. Goedert up towards the top is the one getting the love in a better game environment. The Cowboys have a weakness against the TE and just a few weeks ago allowed Kittle to score 3 TDs against them. I don’t personally think I will be spending up at TE, but if I were it would be for Goedert. I am a bit skeptical so I would probably fade this ownership. I don’t want to go against what I said for all of the other guys in this game that I talk about above though. This should be a good game environment with a lot of passing which points towards Goedert being a possible benefactor.
Pivot: TJ Hockenson ($5,200)
Dalton Schultz ($4,200)
After a string of great games from Schultz, he finally busted last week. I see no reason he can’t get back to playing at that level though. TB has allowed a good amount of TE targets this season and Schultz has quietly been a great TE over the last two seasons. He got 10 targets just a week ago and with Robert Woods out and Tank Dell back healthy, that should make defenses have to play back due to Dell’s deep threat which opens up the middle. There are a lot of TEs in this range that are getting ownership, but Schultz is in a spot to stand out.
Pivot: Kyle Pitts ($4,100)
Jake Ferguson ($4,000)
I feel like this whole article is me just writing about Eagles and Cowboys but they are for real in a great spot to be the top stack this week. I want a piece of this game in every lineup and if you want to hedge the massive ownership of CeeDee, going to Ferguson as a run back in a Hurts stack or even with CeeDee in a Dak stack he offers you a lot of value. Again, the Eagles allow a ton of pass yards and have also allowed the 2nd most pass TDs to TEs this season. The target share is my concern. Over the last 3 weeks he has only gotten a combined 8 targets. At this ownership projection, I don’t know if I can get there but once again the game environment caters to a lot of throwing which could go Ferguson's way.
Pivot: David Njoku ($3,800)
Other Considerations:
Mark Andrews ($6,800)
Trey McBride ($3,700)
Logan Thomas ($3,500)
Luke Musgrave ($3,300)
Cade Otton ($3,000)
DST
Literally any DST playing a backup QB:
Browns DST ($4,200)
Saints DST ($4,100)
Falcons DST ($3,700)
Vikings DST ($3,300)
Packers DST ($2,800)** If Matthew Stafford is OUT
Cardinals DST ($2,700)
Bears DST ($2,500)
Giants DST ($2,300)
