NFL - Jets vs. Chargers Showdown Preview
Wow does it feel good to be back providing content to the amazing community that I tirelessly worked to serve over the last few years. I took some time off to focus on some personal things and am finally feeling ready to return. This time there is no money grab or attempt to “buy your services”. I just want to do this for me because at the end of the day I started this to provide free content that I think can help others. It is as simple as that. I think I got lost in trying to make Heating Up a business like some of the other big Daily Fantasy websites when I should have just done what brought me success from the beginning.
I need to revive the community and rebuild from the bottom up. The old Heating Up server had nearly 800 users and only 40-50 were ever active. I want to rebuild that with those that truly just want to have a place to go to talk sports and win some money through having each other’s backs and helping everyone out. This is more than just me… it is about US so come join us today!
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Showdown Theory is truly one of the last things that I think still has a massive edge in the Daily Fantasy community. Most main slates have pretty much become “whoever pays the most for their picks/optimizers/simulations” wins all the top prizes with only the top 1% reaping the rewards every week. While there might not be as many combinations for SD, there is still an edge to be had and I want to take advantage of that. For the NFL Showdown Slates, pricing on all of the players puts almost everyone into a certain “bucket” or tier where you essentially have to play the top scoring guy from each tier to have a chance. I think breaking each Showdown slate into those tiers and targeting the correct guys from each can result in some serious leverage.
You can gain leverage in Showdown a few different ways, but the main three are as follows
Play the ownership game: Find the lower owned pieces and play them.
Modified Roster Construction: Play the “chalk” but in ways the field might not be playing them.
Burn Salary: Don’t use all $50,000 of the salary allotted to you and waste a good amount to get different.
In Showdown the vast majority of the industry does pretty much the same thing. Watch videos from the sharps of the industry (Stokastic, Run Pure, ETR, ShipIt Nation, Pat Mayo, etc.) and form biases based on who they like. Usually the entire industry likes certain players so their ownership skyrockets. This forms pockets players with hyper inflated ownership (called Chalk) where others go under owned and become great leverage. Finding just one pivot from a chalky ownership player to an under owned player can be the difference in splitting the pot with 100+ and just 10-15 people in Showdown. That is what we want to capitalize on with these articles. Identify the chalk and find pivots in each pricing tier to help solidify leverage.
At the end of the day, the one thing you certainly will want to do is always construct your Showdown lineup in a way that fits some sort of narrative. Don’t play all the WRs and no QB. Don’t play 3-4 RBs and then both QBs. Neither of those things will ever correlate enough to make its way to the top and win a GPP. If you CPTN a QB, unless it is Lamar, Hurts or Fields, run it back with 1-2 receiving options because for a QB to be optimal they need to score likely 20+ DK points and for them to do that they have to throw to someone. There are tons of other scenarios, but make your lineup make sense!
Disclaimer: These articles are not intended to be picks. Please don’t take all my leverage plays and throw them in a lineup. That is almost a guaranteed to end in losing money. The field creates chalk for a reason. They are usually great plays and should be played, but not played all together unless you are playing cash games (50/50s and double ups) only. This is specifically written for tournaments, but can still be applied to cash games by focusing more on the chalk plays. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking submit on your lineups so please no hate if the analysis doesn’t end in winning you money every night.
With that being said, let’s take a look at my favorite Captain Picks, a breakdown of all relevant players that might get touches in this game and how we can leverage the chalk in ways to still have a optimal chance at coming in 1st place!
Captain Picks
Looking at pricing it is pretty obvious that expectations are for the Chargers to win this game when the top 3 options are Chargers and right after that are 3 Jets. Even if the Chargers were to win, I don’t think it is necessary for you to have a Charger at the CPTN. The Jets are a lot more appropriately priced at the top and if the Chargers spread it around and the Jets focus on 2-3 guys they could easily push to the top. I can’t get over the fact that Garrett Wilson ($14,400 CPTN) is this cheap against the worst pass defense in the league. They give up a league worst 297 pass yards/game and with a ton of the volume going Wilson’s way, I don’t think you can fade him tonight. He has averaged nearly 12 targets/game over the last month and has 15+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 games. He is a very solid CPTN option that might get over looked. Next up for me would be Austin Ekeler ($18,000 CPTN) who being the top priced option might actually work against him tonight. I don’t think ownership will be that overwhelming to me, but he will get a good chunk. Just like Wilson against the worst pass defense, Ekeler draws the 2nd worst rush defense who is allowing nearly 150 yards/game on the ground. He does it in both facets of the game and is in a good spot to capitalize on what is arguably the worst part of his game which is the running portion. Pair that with his elite pass catching ability and the sky is the limit. After these two, I think there is some merit to punting tonight at CPTN. You have a lot of inflated prices that if you want to fit more than 3 in you will need to find salary somewhere. With Mike Williams and now Josh Palmer out for extended periods of time, someone in the Chargers pass game has to step up. I don’t often have to do this but Jaylen Guyton (unknown price) is returning from IR and isn’t even in the player pool yet. I would assume DK adds him at some point today because he could slot in as the WR2 on this team. He has shown in the past the ability to produce when called upon and this team is desperate for another WR aside Allen to stand out. If they don’t add him or he isn’t active, Quentin Johnston ($5,400 CPTN) would become very interesting just due to the expected volume. I doubt they can just pepper Allen and Ekeler with 70% of the targets given the Jets defense as a unit is actually very solid. Johnson got 6 targets last week and that was with Palmer playing 70% of the snaps. No reason he can’t do similar here if not more. This is definitely a volume play vs. a skill play. He just makes everything work with the price being this cheap. There are other CPTN options that can certainly become viable, but there would be my top 3-4 if all things hold (and DK adds Guyton to the player pool).
Jets
The Jets are 3.5 point underdogs at home with an 18 point implied team total. This is kind of shocking due to the fact that regardless of how you view Zach Wilson ($8,800), he has been able to churn out wins as of late. It hasn’t been pretty and it is mostly due to the defense stepping up big time, but a win is a win. We don’t care about wins though in the DK streets we care about output and Wilson is still not getting there. I would much rather go to his partners in crime Garrett Wilson ($9,600) or Breece Hall ($10,400) who have much higher ceilings and seem to be doing more with their opportunities. I already talked about Wilson, but I need to make something very clear. He can be in the best spot in the world against a JV football team. If Zach can’t get him the ball efficiently it won’t matter. I still think he can and honestly I think Garrett can drag Zach along with him to make both optimal in some narratives. At this price for Zach, the picture perfect matchup and the low ownership, I actually like Zach a lot tonight. Yeah he barely does anything most weeks but the last time they played a prime time game, Wilson was virtually unowned and against all odds put up 20 DK points vs. the Chiefs who have a great defense. As for Breece Hall, I am a bit conflicted. He looks great, but last week he only mustered up 17 yards on 12 carries and would have been an absolute bust if it weren’t for 6/76/1 through the air. The Chargers give up the 5th fewest rush yards/game this season which doesn’t help Breece’s cause. If he is going to get a ton of ownership I actually think he might be worth fading tonight. He is on an insanely hot run and I think last week he was due for some regression but had a big play go in his favor. There is enough going against him tonight for me to believe he could disappoint. He has had some pretty poor rushing numbers the last few weeks. After these 3 guys, it really is a toss up. First up is Allen Lazard ($5,200) who is questionable for this game anyways. I think he plays, but even if he does I don’t know if you can trust him. The pros are he is playing WR2 snaps, is in a really good matchup with the Chargers being a terrible pass defense, the game script should favor passing for them and is coming off of a season high in targets with 6. The cons are Zach Wilson is not a good QB and he is priced a bit too high for my liking. I won’t be running to get him into anything, but I don’t hate it. I just don’t know if I trust Wilson enough to get him the ball when Garrett is also in a great spot and so are some of the other Jet’s pass catchers. Given the snap counts I just can’t get to either of Xavier Gipson ($200) and Malik Taylor ($200). They do play on around 25-30% of the snaps but get virtually no volume. With Randall Cobb ($200) returning I fully expect Gipson to go back down to the practice squad and Taylor might hold his spot but won’t play enough to be worth anything. Atleast Cobb gets some volume when he is on the field. I don’t hate him but I doubt I even get him in a lineup. He shouldn’t be necessary. The TE group is what gives me more interest. Tyler Conklin ($3,000) leads the group by a considerable margin with 29 targets this season compared to CJ Uzomah ($200) who is 2nd with just 6 targets. I have no issue with Conklin as value who blanked last week but I doubt that happens again. The Chargers have allowed the 4th most TE DK points/game this season. It is a good spot for him and for the price can get you what you need. I like him here. I probably won’t get to Uzomah even if he is a bargain. I just don’t think you need to go this low tonight. Same with Jeremy Ruckert ($200) who is playing on about 40% of the snaps but is kind of capped at just 1 target/game which isn’t going to be enough unless it is a random lucky TD. If I am paying $200 for someone on the Jets it for sure would be Michael Carter ($200). He is playing on about 25% of the snaps and has pretty much taken over Dalvin Cook ($1,400) as the RB2 and gets a few looks in the pass game as well as a rush attempt or two. He has shown the ability to produce when given opportunities and in two minute drill situations and some 3rd downs they are going to Carter which those are high value snaps. Don’t get cute and play Dalvin he is washed, but Carter actually raises some eyebrows for me.
Chargers
The Chargers are 3.5 point favorites on the road with a 21.5 point implied team total. This really isn’t a good matchup for anyone other than Austin Ekeler ($12,000) with the Jets allowing the 2nd most rush yards/game this season and the 5th fewest pass yards/game. That won’t deter me from playing Justin Herbert ($11,800) who is still a more than capable QB despite the Chargers just not winning as many games as they should with him at QB. I am holding strong on my narrative that this is a big Ekeler game, so I would try to get him in first. The Chargers in general just don’t perform well against good defenses. He only managed 20 and 12 DK points against the two good defenses he has played (KC and DAL) and the Jets might be even better. I just don’t think this is a spot I will go to him. I would much rather go to Keenan Allen ($11,600) who can get you what you need on volume alone and he won’t see much of Sauce Gardner given he doesn’t play out of the slot. Keenan can easily get 10/85 and beat Herbert without a TD if Ekeler is the main scorer. That is the way I see it. Those two legit take up so much of the usage on this team that it is tough to predict the secondary options. The Jets have allowed the most TE TDs this season so one of Gerald Everett ($5,600) or Donald Parham ($3,200) stand out to me. I think Everett will resume his usual role which is around 70% of the snaps and a good target share. I like him a lot in this spot with a depleted WR room for the Chargers. Parham has always been a good redzone threat which is why I have some interest, but he is usually like $1,500 or less. At this price he needs a TD and some catches to really get him there. I think Everett is much more likely to do that even if he is a bit more pricey. Then you get to the very confusing WR room that involves Quentin Johnston ($3,600), Jaylen Guyton ($unknown), Derius Davis ($200) and Simi Fehoko ($600). I have a lot more faith in Johnston and Guyton to for sure have a role. A lot depends on how expensive Guyton is when they add him as to how I view him. If they price him up and he is like $4,400 or more I would be hesitant. He is coming back from injury so they might ease him into action and just let the rookie Johnston get his due. However, if Guyton is a bargain and really cheap or anything around the $3,000 range I actually might like him. The real issue with these two is they will see a good portion of Sauce Gardner tonight with him not playing the slot. That alone will probably limit targets to the two. Keenan runs a lot more out of the slot which opens things up for him. I do like Johnston and Guyton, but the matchup is concerning. If Guyton is inactive for whatever reason then I do like Davis a good bit who will see around 40% of the snaps and you won’t be chasing a lucky TD with him like you would with Fehoko. He is also a touch cheaper and sees rush attempts. They actually try to draw things up for him. However, for the most part I really don’t think you need to target anyone other than Ekeler, Keenan, the TEs and one of Johnston/Guyton (if he plays). Don’t play more than 2 WRs from the Chargers not named Keenan together and don’t play both TEs together. I can’t be done without mentioning don’t get cute with Josh Kelley ($2,600). If he beats us so be it but I think he is a bad RB and is priced too highly for a backup RB when the Jets backups are better and much cheaper. I also wouldn’t chase the Stone Smartt ($200) 50% snap share from last game. It will come down with Everett back and he didn’t even get a target on that many snaps.
DST and K
I have some appeal to all 4 units here in what is expected to be a lower scoring environment. The Chargers DST ($5,000) can get to the QB when they are on their game and Wilson is prone to being a terrible QB and throwing picks often. On the flip side the Jets DST ($4,200) is just good and cheap. Herbert hasn’t really been the same QB either this season so a few turnovers or sacks could be in play. As for the kickers, I trust Cameron Dicker ($4,600) a lot more than Greg Zuerlein ($4,400) with the Chargers offense just being the better unit and I think they will be able to sustain drives more. However, The Jets offense has shown some flashes in being able to move it down the field. Their big issue is they stall in the red zone all of the time which does feed into K scoring so I like him as well. Kickers in low scoring games tend to be optimal more often as well which adds to the intrigue.
My Narratives
Ekeler > everyone
I actually like the Jets a good bit
Keenan > Herbert
Garrett Wilson > Breece
Try to get one DST or K into your lineup
One of Parham or Everett has an optimal game
Punts are Carter or one of Johnston/Guyton (if he ends up being priced like a punt)
4/2 both ways or 3/3
Chargers win a close game 23-20
