NFL - Week 10 Chalk and Pivot Report
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With how sharp the field is nowadays, you really have to hit at every position to have a chance in Main Slate contests. Compared to years past, almost everyone is main stacking along with a mini stack. Almost everyone is targeting high implied scoring teams and it leaves you with players getting hyper inflated ownership based on the industry talking them up. We call these players/stacks the “chalk”. Do they deserve to be high owned? In some cases yes they do. They usually have better opportunities to score. However, some players can become chalk just based on inefficient pricing. I am going to be changing things up and starting with who is going to be the chalk pieces and why. Then I will give some of my favorite pivots off of that chalk to possibly get different. Just a forewarning, if you take all of the pivots, the current DFS landscape will likely lead to you losing money. Like I said, chalk is chalk for a reason. Balance the chalk with some pivots to give yourself leverage over the field and possibly score a big win!
Chalk QBs:
CJ Stroud ($6,900)
People love to chase a big game from the week prior and Stroud might have hit the top mark for the entire season with his 45 DK point performance. He faces a Bengals team that since Burrow has gotten healthy is finding ways to score at ease. The passing script for Stroud should remain for this week and he has cheaper stacking options with Nico Collins out. The run back for Stroud is extremely easy with Mixon getting a ton of love as well as Chase (if he plays) and Boyd with Higgins out. This game has one of the higher projected totals and is within a couple points of being the highest. I could see Stroud continuing his strong run of play this week in a spot they will have to throw to keep up.
Pivot: Joe Burrow ($6,800)
Jared Goff ($6,400)
Goff gets to face statistically the worst pass defense in the league this week in the Chargers who have no problem keeping pace scoring wise with any team. While he has had a few poor games in a row, this feels like the perfect get right spot which has the recipe to be very high scoring. It has the highest implied total on the entire slate and has a close enough spread that you can expect frequent high pace scoring potential. Goff is easy to stack with a confined passing group to throw to and the run back is easy with Keenan, Ekeler or one of the cheaper LAC options given the many injuries they have. Goff checks a lot of boxes for what you want out of a QB this week.
Pivot: Sam Howell ($5,900)
Will Levis ($5,300)
This is a very ballsy play and definitely not “chalk” like I imply above. We just saw Stroud go nuclear against this Bucs secondary and Levis has looked good enough for me to suggest he can probably have a great week as well. The Bucs are very strong at stopping the run game, allowing the 9th fewest rush yards/game and 2nd fewest rush TDs/game on the season. That recipe feeds into a lot of passing for the Titans to maintain pace with a surprisingly good Bucs offense. Henry might have to take a back seat this week and let Levis will them to a win. He has easy stacking options with Hopkins, Chig and maybe even NWI and the run back is condensed down to really just Evans, Godwin, White and Otton. He gives you savings and allows you to get a couple studs into your lineup.
Pivot: Baker Mayfield ($5,100)
Other Considerations:
Justin Herbert ($7,700)
Dak Prescott ($6,700)
Geno Smith ($5,800)
Chalk RBs:
Christian McCaffrey ($9,200)
Sometimes people just want a safe play and CMC is about as close to safe as they come. He has 20+ DK points in all but 2 games this season and those two were against top notch defenses in CLE and DAL. This matchup against the Jaguars might look bad for the rushing upside, but the Jags have allowed the 3rd most pass yards/game this season. With them also being top 5 in QB Hurry %, this could be a spot where Purdy just dumps it off to CMC a ton which is perfect for the PPR setting DK has. I like him a lot this week in a high pace game environment that could go back and forth.
Pivot: Austin Ekeler ($8,400)
Tony Pollard ($7,300)
This might be the largest spread of the year. The Cowboys are 17.5 point favorites against the Giants this week which should mean plenty of Pollard work. They could probably play with the backups and still win against this abysmal team. He hasn’t looked good this year with a negative yards over expected number, but if he can’t do it this week can he do it all this year? He is drawing a ton of ownership and him + Cowboys DST might be one of the highest owned pairs of the week. I like rolling with it, but it is risky.
Pivot: Aaron Jones ($6,500)
Joe Mixon ($6,200)
The Bengals have the second highest implied spread on the slate being 6.5 point favorites against the Texans somehow despite being without Tee and possibly even Chase this weekend. Oddly enough, the Texans have actually allowed under 100 rush yards/game this season which is in the better half of the league, but they allow TDs. Now I do think this is a very safe play, but there is some risk which is why I think it is bad chalk. He hasn’t looked that great this year and even at this price tag he needs a considerable amount of points with the caliber of RB that the slate itself has. I think he is more of a floor play than a ceiling play which is fine in cash games but in GPPs I will be looking to the passing options from this game.
Pivot: Rachaad White ($5,800)
Devin Singletary ($4,700)
I don’t think he will be too chalky given he really hurt owners last week. However, that was against TB that is notoriously good at stopping the run. The Bengals are not having allowed the 6th most rush yards/game this season. With Pierce out once again, he should be able to get the majority of the carries and it might be wiser to try to control the clock with the run game to keep Burrow from getting on the field. I think he is a solid bounce back candidate after a bad week with a still cheap price tag.
Pivot: Zach Charbonnet ($4,200)
Other Considerations:
Travis Etienne ($7,100)
Bijan Robinson ($6,000)
Brian Robinson ($5,400)
Najee Harris ($4,900)
Chalk WRs:
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300)
Some of the spend up options are in really bad spots this week with Chase banged up and Lamb in a game where they could probably play the backups and still win. That leaves Amon-Ra kind of on an island at the top and I think that is where people will gravitate. The Chargers allow the most pass yards in the league and we all know Goff isn’t afraid to sling it. He has 100+ yards in 4 out of the last 5 games and is averaging nearly 15 targets/game over that time frame. He is almost as can’t miss as they come and being in the highest implied total on the slate just helps his cause.
Pivot: Keenan Allen ($8,800)
DK Metcalf ($6,800)
While the Seahawks haven’t looked that great as of late, they are in a great bounce back spot against a fast paced Commanders team that has a bottom 5 pass defense. Despite just 4 targets last week, the two weeks prior he garnered 10 and 14 respectively. There is no reason to believe he can’t get back to that. We all know his TD upside is there. He just hasn’t been able to get in the box as of late with the rushing attack being the main scoring option. I think this is a really good get right spot for Geno and likewise DK who is still the WR1 on this team.
Pivot: Chris Godwin ($6,700)
Tank Dell ($5,500) or Noah Brown ($3,700)
There is no doubt in my mind that Dell will get steamed up big time following his 11 target, 2 TD and 33 DK point performance and now Nico Collins is out as well… That will just add fuel to his ownership and you know what I think it is good chalk. Stroud is going to have to throw and Dell has been a down field threat all season. The Bengals pass defense isn’t that great and if it isn’t going to Dell it is either Schultz, Noah Brown who very well could have had a flash in the pan game last week or old man Robert Woods. I just think from a talent perspective he is the best pass catcher on this team this week and is priced cheap enough that it doesn’t kill your roster construction trying to get him in. If people don’t play Dell they are for sure going to Brown who is still cheap and might be in an even better spot this week. He has to get targets and is super cheap coming off of a 30 DK point game. What more could you ask for?
Pivot: Terry McLaurin ($5,800)
Other Considerations:
Mike Evans ($7,200)
Chris Olave ($6,400)
Tyler Lockett ($6,100)
Calvin Ridley ($5,600)
Diontae Johnson ($5,400)
Marquise Brown ($5,200)
Jahan Dotson ($5,000)
Tyler Boyd ($4,600)
N. Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,400)
Jamison Crowder ($3,400)
Trent Irwin ($3,000)** If JaMarr Chase is OUT
Andrei Iosivas ($3,000)** If JaMarr Chase is OUT
Chalk TEs:
Sam LaPorta ($5,700)
If people are spending up I think it is for LaPorta who is breaking trends as far as rookie TE production goes. He has averaged 9 targets/game over the last 3 weeks with 9+ DK points in all but 1 game this season. He has emerged as the 2nd option in this offense and against a Chargers team that has allowed the 4th most DK points to the TE position and catches to TEs what more can you ask for. This game should be very high scoring and LaPorta certainly can be apart of that. I see no issue going up to him once again with a ceiling of over 20 DK points genuinely being in play this week.
Pivot: George Kittle ($6,100)
Dalton Schultz ($4,900)
We called it last week and I think we can call it again. He was in a prime spot to break out and did to the tune of 31 DK points on 11 targets. He now gets to play without Nico Collins who is arguably their top pass catcher and in a very high paced environment. The Bengals are dead last in DK points to the TE allowed so the matchup is perfect and I just see Stroud slinging it once again. He got a price bump but I think it isn’t anything that should be difficult to fit into a lineup.
Pivot: Evan Engram ($4,500)
Trey McBride ($3,500)
Despite a bad week last week, I have no problem going back to McBride with Kyler returning and facing a bottom TE defense in the Falcons. He is still getting plenty of targets. They just weren’t efficient last week. Kyler might take some time to knock the rust off, but he has to be better than what Dobbs or Tune were giving them that is for sure. Hopefully he can polish up early and help McBride have a big week this week. The price tag is also very affordable and lets you do a lot with your lineup.
Pivot: Chig Okonkwo ($3,000)
Other Considerations:
Taysom Hill ($5,100)
Jake Ferguson ($4,600)
Kyle Pitts ($4,100)
Gerald Everett ($3,900)
Juwan Johnson ($3,100)
Irv Smith ($2,700)
Tanner Hudson ($2,500)
DST
Cowboys DST ($4,400)
Steelers DST ($3,800)
Cardinals DST ($2,500)
