NFL - Bills vs. Broncos Showdown Preview
Wow does it feel good to be back providing content to the amazing community that I tirelessly worked to serve over the last few years. I took some time off to focus on some personal things and am finally feeling ready to return. This time there is no money grab or attempt to “buy your services”. I just want to do this for me because at the end of the day I started this to provide free content that I think can help others. It is as simple as that. I think I got lost in trying to make Heating Up a business like some of the other big Daily Fantasy websites when I should have just done what brought me success from the beginning.
I need to revive the community and rebuild from the bottom up. The old Heating Up server had nearly 800 users and only 40-50 were ever active. I want to rebuild that with those that truly just want to have a place to go to talk sports and win some money through having each other’s backs and helping everyone out. This is more than just me… it is about US so come join us today!
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Showdown Theory is truly one of the last things that I think still has a massive edge in the Daily Fantasy community. Most main slates have pretty much become “whoever pays the most for their picks/optimizers/simulations” wins all the top prizes with only the top 1% reaping the rewards every week. While there might not be as many combinations for SD, there is still an edge to be had and I want to take advantage of that. For the NFL Showdown Slates, pricing on all of the players puts almost everyone into a certain “bucket” or tier where you essentially have to play the top scoring guy from each tier to have a chance. I think breaking each Showdown slate into those tiers and targeting the correct guys from each can result in some serious leverage.
You can gain leverage in Showdown a few different ways, but the main three are as follows
Play the ownership game: Find the lower owned pieces and play them.
Modified Roster Construction: Play the “chalk” but in ways the field might not be playing them.
Burn Salary: Don’t use all $50,000 of the salary allotted to you and waste a good amount to get different.
In Showdown the vast majority of the industry does pretty much the same thing. Watch videos from the sharps of the industry (Stokastic, Run Pure, ETR, ShipIt Nation, Pat Mayo, etc.) and form biases based on who they like. Usually the entire industry likes certain players so their ownership skyrockets. This forms pockets players with hyper inflated ownership (called Chalk) where others go under owned and become great leverage. Finding just one pivot from a chalky ownership player to an under owned player can be the difference in splitting the pot with 100+ and just 10-15 people in Showdown. That is what we want to capitalize on with these articles. Identify the chalk and find pivots in each pricing tier to help solidify leverage.
At the end of the day, the one thing you certainly will want to do is always construct your Showdown lineup in a way that fits some sort of narrative. Don’t play all the WRs and no QB. Don’t play 3-4 RBs and then both QBs. Neither of those things will ever correlate enough to make its way to the top and win a GPP. If you CPTN a QB, unless it is Lamar, Hurts or Fields, run it back with 1-2 receiving options because for a QB to be optimal they need to score likely 20+ DK points and for them to do that they have to throw to someone. There are tons of other scenarios, but make your lineup make sense!
Disclaimer: These articles are not intended to be picks. Please don’t take all my leverage plays and throw them in a lineup. That is almost a guaranteed to end in losing money. The field creates chalk for a reason. They are usually great plays and should be played, but not played all together unless you are playing cash games (50/50s and double ups) only. This is specifically written for tournaments, but can still be applied to cash games by focusing more on the chalk plays. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking submit on your lineups so please no hate if the analysis doesn’t end in winning you money every night.
With that being said, let’s take a look at my favorite Captain Picks, a breakdown of all relevant players that might get touches in this game and how we can leverage the chalk in ways to still have a optimal chance at coming in 1st place!
Captain Picks
With a 7 point spread and 5 out of the 6 top priced options on this slate all being Bills players, I think the expectations is they just hand it to them at home under the lights tonight. I kind of expect that as well which is why I am likely to run almost exclusively Bills CPTN lineups. The only concern is the price on some of these guys. From a cost effective standpoint, it almost feels easiest to play one of Dalton Kincaid ($12,600 CPTN) or Gabe Davis ($11,100) CPTN and just hope it works out. With Allen + Diggs over $18,000, that really forces you to go way down to the punts which on this slate there really aren’t a lot of them. Denver has allowed the 3rd most TE production this season which on paper brings a lot of value to Kincaid. He is scorching hot right now with 15+ DK points in 3 straight games. Those savings could help you pair him with one of Diggs or Allen and not have to go dumpster diving for the last spot. As for Davis, he really is more of a leverage play. We all know he has his ups and downs, but man those ups can be slate breaking when it happens. I think Diggs actually sees the majority of his snaps against Surtain due to the fact they run on similar sides on close to 70% of the snaps. That could open up things for Davis to really to have another solid game. The goose egg last week is what most will see and just opt to look elsewhere when the week prior he had 24 DK points on 12 targets. There is always a path and he is cheap for the upside so I almost always will like him in these formats. If you want a lot of leverage, the real way to do it would be a Broncos CPTN. Given Courtland Sutton ($10,500 CPTN) has quietly scored double digit DK points in all but 1 game this season, he feels like the most obvious guy to target. They are always looking to him in the red zone and injuries to this Bills defense are piling up for them. It isn’t like they have Tre White out there to shut people down. It will definitely be different and I think he offers you the best shot on the Broncos side. You can always go for one of Josh Allen ($18,900 CPTN) or Stefon Diggs ($18,000 CPTN), but they will garner massive CPTN ownership and are very expensive so tread lightly. Every one else is just a UTIL play for me.
Bills
The Bills are 7 point favorites at home with a 27 point implied team total. I see no reason they can’t bully the Broncos in this one. The big issue is this team just hasn’t looked right lately. They haven’t had this take the top off offense like they had in the past. Against this defense, I think they can really get back to the level they should and it all starts with Josh Allen ($12,600). He has been great with 25+ DK points 5 of the last 6 games this season and now faces statistically one of the worst defenses in the league. He has plenty of weapons to look to including Stefon Diggs ($12,000) who is having a career year so far. He has had 15+ DK points in all but 1 game with 20+ DK points in 6 out of 9. The target share is just wild for him and the only real concern tonight will be can he avoid the Surtain treatment. They actually might be on each other quite a bit which has me concerned about the ceiling. However, the floor is just too high to pass up. If you can fit Allen and Diggs in I think you do it here. After those two the real #3 option is looking like Dalton Kincaid ($8,400) with Dawson Knox currently out. He is running routes on close to 100% of the plays and drop backs, getting a huge target share and producing with the volume. What more is there to say? He is a great option tonight for sure. Then you get to Gabe Davis ($7,400) and Khalil Shakir ($4,400) who have planted their flag as the WR2 and WR3 on this team. Both have a similar floor, but Davis has a much higher ceiling. From a value perspective, Shakir might be the better option. He has 4 catches in each of the last 3 games and is on the field for close to 75% of the plays. I don’t think he sees any of Surtain given he runs out of the slot on 70% of the plays and the Broncos slot CB, Ja’Quan McMillian, has allowed the most FP/RR on the team so the matchup is pretty solid. I like him a good bit for value if not more than Davis possibly. I still think if you want ceiling Davis is the play. However, Shakir is in a really good spot to produce tonight. The end of the WR rotation consists of Trent Sherfield ($800) and Deonte Harty ($200). Sherfield plays on around 30% of the snaps and will get a couple targets likely. I think he is fine from a value perspective but I doubt you need to go there. There is about a 50/50 chance he goose eggs. Harty has pretty much been relegated to the special teams so if you run the Bills DST then maybe pairing him with that stack since he returns punts could be a viable option. I just don’t see much value at all from him in the passing game. As for the TE group, it really is just Quintin Morris ($200) who has literally 1 target on the season but it was for a TD. I wouldn’t go there. As for the backfield, James Cook ($10,000) is the clear RB1 in terms of snaps but man is this price gross. He will be incredibly low owned and I actually think he could be great leverage. The Broncos has allowed the most rush yards this season at over 150 rush yards/game. He just hasn’t been getting the volume lately with under 15 touches in all but one game since Week 3. I don’t know if he can be enough to warrant the price tag. I am personally going to have very little of him, but I get the GPP narrative and playing him for leverage. I actually think I would take the savings and play Latavius Murray ($1,800) who is dirt cheap and played on 45% of the snaps last week. That is telling that they want to use him and the rushing efficiency might be there for once. He really just needs to fall into the box once to be optimal. That is about it from this team.
Broncos
The Broncos are 7 point underdogs on the road with a 20 point implied team total. I am pleasantly surprised they actually are projected to score that many points, but the Bills defense is not the same defense that the stats suggest. They have a ton of injuries currently so I think the Broncos can be productive in moving the ball. Russell Wilson ($9,400) has been surprisingly decent this season from a DFS perspective. He scores fairly well even with some okay weapons at best. The Bills defense has allowed Baker and Burrow to produce well the last few weeks. Why can’t Russ pull a rabbit out of the hat and reclaim his old self on the way to a possible upset. He has two pretty solid weapons in Courtland Sutton ($7,000) and Jerry Jeudy ($6,800) with Sutton playing more snaps. I really think these two are a coin flip for me but I side with Sutton. I prefer the red zone guy more in almost every instance which is what Sutton is being used as. Jeudy is more of a field stretcher who will be more boom or bust. I think for cash games I might prefer Sutton and GPPs prefer Jeudy. He should be slightly lower owned. Both get a fairly similar target share with Sutton just getting more snaps. The real wild card currently is Marvin Mims ($3,800) who is playing on about 40% of the snaps but hasn’t been productive with the snaps. He hasn’t gotten more than 1 target since Week 4, but the ones he does get are very high value targets. I have no issue taking a swing on him in hopes he can break a 60 yard TD which we have seen him do. It has just been a while. The only other two guys that get snaps from the WR group is Lil’Jordan Humphrey ($200) and Tre’Quan Smith ($200). They just don’t get enough volume to be worth playing. I would look elsewhere. Then you get to TE group with Adam Trautman ($200) and Chris Manhertz ($200). I have ZERO clue why Trautman is $200 when he is playing around 80% of the snaps, running plenty of routes and has had some productive games this season. It might end up poorly again, but if I am full punting it would be down to Trautman for sure. Manhertz is a blocker for the majority of the time so I would look elsewhere with him as well. The RB room is getting a little more clear with Javonte Williams ($7,200) taking over more and more of the backfield every week. He is up to around 65% of the snaps and even had 27 rush attempts last week. I think they bring a similar game plan into this one with keeping Allen off the field by running the ball a ton just like they did with Mahomes. He is really trending right now and Buffalo at times has been susceptible to having RBs tear them up. They have allowed 5+ RB catches in each of the last 3 games and 4+ in all but 1 game this season. If Javonte can carry that trend into this one he will be a great value. He might end up being the best Bronco on the slate. With Javonte trending up, Samaje Perine ($1,400) and Jaleel McLaughlin ($2,600) are trending in the opposite direction. They have still been pretty productive though especially Jaleel who has 5+ DK points in each of the last 5 games. At this price he is a great value and I would prefer him over Perine. They like to have him be more of a 3rd down/passing down guy anyways and if this gets out of hand McLaughlin could be used more. Perine is kind of the odd man out who I won’t get to. He would need a lucky TD to be viable.
DST and K
I don’t care what the Denver DST ($3,200) did last week against the reigning MVP and champs. I am not chasing a big game from them. The unit in general is weak and the Bills should be able to exploit things easily. With the Denver offense actually playing decent and the Bills DST ($5,000) playing sub par + injuries I won’t go with them either. They haven’t scored more than 10 DK points since Week 3. That is very telling to me and I think there are plenty of position players + kickers that can outscore that unit on this slate. Speaking of the kickers, I really like Will Lutz ($4,600) who is set up to actually score here. The Broncos actually have a higher implied total than most think which likely means Lutz has some opportunities. Even with the injuries, I think the Bills defense coupled with the Broncos’ offensive woes can lead to numerous FG opportunities. I think Russ will be able to move the ball but might struggle in the red zone. I also like Tyler Bass ($5,200) but the price tag is a bit steep. He really would need to outscore the punts by a decent margin to be optimal unless this is a really low scoring affair. I just think enough scoring happens that could squeeze him. I also feel that way for Lutz as well to a certain extent, but atleast he is $600 cheaper.
My Narratives
Josh Allen > everyone
Kincaid > Davis
Jeudy > Sutton in GPPs, flip flop in cash games.
One of Javonte Williams or Jaleel McLaughlin will be optimal.
My punts are Trautman, McLaughlin and Shakir
Bills 4/2 or 3/3 builds
Bills win 31-24
