NBA - October 25th Starting 5
The NBA season is finally here! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Jrue Holiday ($6,100)
There is no reason he should be this cheap. He was producing at an elite level with Giannis and Middleton and priced closer to $7,500 on most slates. He plays the Knicks tonight in what should be a competitive game. Brunson isn’t a great defender by any means. I see no reason he can’t be a great value tonight. There aren’t a lot of stats to go off of so pricing is the preferred thing to look at early in the season. He is just way too cheap.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Trae Young ($9,800) or Luka Doncic ($11,000)
Mid: Tyler Herro ($6,300)
Cheap: Jeremy Sochan ($4,700)
SG: Talen Horton-Tucker ($4,500)
He is going to see a much different role this season as the starting PG, should see around 30 minutes and has shown the upside lately to be a serious DFS asset. At this price, I don’t see a way he doesn’t hit 6x value and the matchup is picture perfect. This UTA/SAC game has the highest projected total on the slate. He is a great piece to get if you want cheap from that game.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Paul George ($9,500)
Mid: Desmond Bane ($7,400) or Bennedict Mathurin ($5,400)
Cheap: Dyson Daniels ($3,000)
SF: Zach Lavine ($6,800)
This entire Bulls team is priced way too affordably. We all know Lavine should see 32-34 minutes and around a 25% usage rate. The matchup against OKC is likely to be a higher scoring affair with little defense involved. This is another pricing play. His upside in this matchup is 50+ DK points and you won’t find many at this value that can get you that.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Lauri Markannen ($9,300)
Mid: DeMar DeRozan ($7,100) or Franz Wagner ($6,100)
Cheap: Saddiq Bey ($5,000)
PF: Obi Toppin ($3,000)
What in the world was DK thinking with this price. It has been known for a while he is their starting PF and should see 25-30 minutes. Why is he at the min? This will be the chalk play of the day (no lie he could see 40% or higher in tournaments). He was a 0.9 FPPM type of guy last season on the Knicks and might hit a higher level this season in that offense. I haven’t decided yet if I want to go there in tournaments because there is massive leverage fading him, but when he projects for around 25 DK points and 8x value, that is tough to pass up. ANDDD he has PF/C eligibility which is a huge deal.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Kyle Kuzma ($7,000) or Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,600)
Mid: Jabari Smith ($5,600) or PJ Washington ($5,700)
Cheap: Robert Covington ($3,300)
C: Mark Williams ($5,300)
Williams towards the end of the season was playing at a high level with 30+ DK points in 4/5 final games. He can give you a double double just about every night and if the stocks are going his way he can have a ceiling game. They are going to need him out there against Capela and Okongwu so he should see 28-30 minutes. There are a lot of solid C plays, but Williams could be a piece that is under owned and is priced affordably.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Nikola Vucevic ($6,900) or Alperen Sengun ($6,300)
Mid: Myles Turner ($5,900) or Zach Collins ($5,500)
Cheap: Jalen Duren ($4,800)
