NBA - February 15th Starting Five
The NBA season is in full swing and there are plenty of storylines and developments to get into! We still have such a large amount of season ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Mike Conley ($5,200)
This is only a 3 game slate, so there isn’t a lot to go around. Conley stands out as one of the only PGs being projected for over 5x value which is kind of what we look for at a minimum. He has 25+ DK points in 5 of the last 6 games so we know the floor is there with a ceiling of 40 DK points. The matchup against Portland is an easy one given they are bottom 10 in defensive efficiency this season. I don’t have a big conviction on Conley, but he is atleast cheap and opens up things to get more priced up options. DFS Hero also has him with a positive 12.16 leverage score which is 4th among all players on the slate. Sign me up for Conley tonight.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Stephen Curry ($9,600)
Mid: Brandin Podziemski ($6,100)
Cheap: Keyonte George ($4,700)
SG: Anthony Edwards ($8,700)
Another Timberwolves guy that I think will pay dividends tonight is Edwards. He has 45+ DK points in 5 straight games with a ceiling of 68 DK points. Just like Conley, the matchup against Portland will be an easy one for him. He is coming in as the lowest owned of the big 4 on this slate tonight (Giannis, Steph and Lillard), but has the highest optimal rate per DFS Hero at 45%. He is playing great basketball right now and I think he can carry that into this final game before the All-Star break.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Anfernee Simons ($7,800)
Mid: Vince Williams ($6,500)
Cheap: Luke Kennard ($4,800)
SF: Andrew Wiggins ($5,100)
Straight up he is far too cheap for how he has been playing and his current role. The minutes have been ticking up to the point he is seeing around 30 per night in a starters role. He faces the Jazz who are top 10 in pace and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. While he is kind of reliant on getting the peripherals to hit value, he is averaging about 6 assists and rebounds/game with a stock or two sprinkled in there. If he can just get the shots up I see no reason he can’t hit value. He has 26+ DK points in 4 of the last 5 games and hopefully we can make that 5 of the last 6 after this game.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Lauri Markkanen ($8,100)
Mid: Jerami Grant ($7,400)
Cheap: Kyle Anderson ($3,500)
PF: Draymond Green ($6,300)
This is an easy call here with how Draymond is playing and probably one of my most confident plays on the slate. He has 30+ DK points in 3 straight games with a ceiling of 43 DK points. Last game where he only got 30 DK points, he got into foul trouble and couldn’t get a shot to fall or get an assist to work out. That was against the Clippers who are strong defensively. Now he gets the Jazz who are again top 10 in pace and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. This feels like a no brainer here with how small of a slate we have.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800)
Mid: John Collins ($6,600)
Cheap: Jaden McDaniels ($3,600)
C: Walker Kessler ($5,600)
Now that he is back into the starting lineup, his minutes and role are a lot more secure. He has 26+ minutes in each of the last 3 games since returning to starter status and 27+ DK points in each. The ceiling is there as well with 2 of those 3 games being 35+ DK point outcomes. He has an easy matchup against GS who bleeds production to Cs and they also run at an above average pace. Everything points to him having another great game and has the upside to break the slate if the blocks can come. I am confident the rebounds will be there with how much both teams shoot from distance, so there is double double upside as well.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,000)
Mid: Rudy Gobert ($7,500)
Cheap: Brook Lopez ($5,700)
